Saturday, December 02, 2006

Notching Up the Quiet Arms Race


No one can say President George Bush has been a complete failure. He's had a few successes, some of them he likes to keep quiet.

One thing Bush has managed to do is to spark a quiet arm's race in Asia. What arm's race? My point exactly.

In a remarkably low-key, often overlooked campaign, Washington has moved to isolate China. An integral part of this effort is a new alliance between the US and India.

Clear out the cobwebs. In many respects, India is very modern, very advanced. One of those aspects is India's military. Equipped with state-of-the-art, high quality, largely Russian-made ordinance, India fields one of the world's largest and most capable air forces. In a recent meet, Indian pilots flying Russian-built Su-30 fighters completely trashed a team of top USAF pilots with their F-15s.

India has also developed a legitimate, "blue water" navy equipped with everything from modern submarines to aircraft carriers like the Viraat pictured above. According to the Times of India, the navy is about to embark on a massive shopping spree:

"The Indian Navy is ramping its force and surveillance levels as it gears to protect the country's energy security assets in a wide swathe ranging from the Sakhalin Islands off Russia's east coast to South America.

"Toward this end, it is in the process of acquiring 42 state-of-the-art ships, including two aircraft carriers and six submarines, eight maritime reconnaissance aircraft, a dozen rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), as also enhanced radars and satellite-based technology, navy chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta said on Saturday.

"And, in shaping what in military parlance is termed a "maritime battlefield" the navy is firming interoperability capabilities with its counterparts from the US, Britain, France, and Russia, as also neighbouring and Southeast Asian countries, Mehta told reporters ahead of the Navy Day celebrations on Monday.

"Simultaneously, the navy has also evolved a joint war doctrine involving the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force to integrate the operations of all three wings, he added.

"'We are an India-centric force. We are not only looking at countering threats but to protect the country's economic and energy interests,' Mehta explained."

How do submarines, cruisers and aircraft carriers protect India's energy interests? In exactly the same way they can pose a threat to China's, by maritime dominance of the oil tanker routes between the Middle East and the Far East.

India's rearmament closely mirrors that of China's ongoing development of its own "blue water" navy. Meanwhile, China is moving to cement new co-operation ties with India's principal nemesis, Pakistan. There's a very real tectonic dimension to all of this.

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