Russia - the Next Islamic State?

Russia has been undergoing great demographic change since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mortality rates are up, birth rates are down. The incredible shrinking Russian bear.

The exception to that rule is Russia's Muslim population. According to a story in the Toronto Star, it's flourishing:

"Russia is in the midst of startling transformation. Islamic faith is thriving across the country. If current trends continue, experts say, more than half of Russia's population will be Muslim by mid-century.

"Few expect it will be an easy transition. Tensions are already high between the country's ethnic Russian population and the diverse group of nationalities that make up the Muslim community. Inter-ethnic violence is on the rise and extreme nationalist groups are gaining influence.

"A backlash is already underway. Attacks on mosques are not uncommon and in September an imam in the southern city of Kislovodsk was shot dead outside his home. During days of rioting in August, angry mobs chased Chechens and other migrants from the Caucasus region out of the northwestern town of Kondopoga.

"Spurring on the mob was Alexander Belov, charismatic head of the Movement Against Illegal Immigration, an increasingly powerful lobby group that has staged dozens of rallies in recent months. In an interview at a Czech restaurant in central Moscow, Belov railed against what he called the growing "Islamification" of Russia.

"'Russia is historically a Slavic, Orthodox Christian land and we need to make sure it stays that way,' he said, adding that Orthodox Christianity should be enshrined as Russia's official religion and efforts made to convert Muslims. Islam is currently recognized as one of Russia's official religions, along with Orthodox Christianity, Judaism and Buddhism.

"Like many nationalists, Belov makes no distinction between Muslim immigrants and Russian citizens of Islamic faith. He says Muslims, no matter what their citizenship, should be restricted from living in "traditional Russian lands."

"According to the CIA World Factbook estimate, Russia's overall fertility rate is 1.28 children per woman, far below what is needed to maintain the country's population of about 143 million.

"Muslim Russians, meanwhile, are bucking the trend, with some communities averaging as many as 10 children per woman. The Central Asian states that traditionally send large numbers of immigrant workers to Russia also have much higher birth rates.

"Since 1989, Russia's Muslim population has increased by 40 per cent to about 25 million. By 2015, Muslims could make up a majority of Russia's conscript army and they could account for one-fifth of the country's population by 2020.

"If trends continue for the next 30 years, people of Muslim descent will outnumber ethnic Russians, says Paul Goble, an expert on Islam in Russia and research associate at the University of Tartu in Estonia.

"'Russia is going through a religious transformation that will be of even greater consequence for the international community than the collapse of the Soviet Union.'"