Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Broken Bootstraps


There was a time when we in the West could be comfortable in our affluence. We had this belief, unspoken usually, that the rest of the planet wasn't as well off as we were but could be anytime they wanted to pull themselves up by the bootstraps - just like we had done. If only they could be as diligent and principled and hard working and creative as we had become, they too could enjoy the good life.

That was never more than a self-serving myth designed to assuage our consciences while we rapaciously pursued the world's resources and wealth. If some upstart decided his nation's oil should belong to his nation's people - off with his head. If someone else decided his nation's banana plantations should benefit his nation's people - off with his head. If some leader's people opted for a system of government we didn't like - off with his head. What we couldn't dominate colonially, we subverted by influencing, even controlling, the selection of a compliant head of state. The underlying myth made this all possible.

That myth is pretty much gone today. We cannot afford the environmental costs of allowing developing nations to follow our path to prosperity. If China or India began generating the same level of per capita greenhouse gas emissions as, say, the United States or Canada, the most dire scenarios of global warming would become a certainty. The planet can't sustain the levels of industrial activity we have today. Two more industrial revolutions are out of the question.

So, how are we to go about telling China and India not to aspire to what we have achieved? How are we to frame the argument that we have a right to certain benefits that they do not? How do we tell them not to touch those bootstraps?

Read any major Indian newspaper and you will see that this is going to be a very tough sell. The Indian people seem positive rapturous about their country ascending to a top position - economically, militarily and politically - in the family of nations. There is a level of nationalism sweeping India that may pose a huge obstacle to any pleas for restraint. The Chinese too look toward a bright and expansive future for their nation. With economic capitalism wedded to political communism and a domestic market of 1.3-billion (far more than Europe and North America combined) their advance seems unstoppable.

It's pretty tough to ask "have not" nations to forego becoming "haves" at the very moment they've arrived at the opportunity, so how do we persuade them? We have the trade "stick", such as it is, if necessary but what do we have in the way of "carrots" to dangle in front of them? They've already said, quite justifiably, that they want to see the current, great polluters set a clear example before they'll follow suit. The thing is, in North America at least, there's no political appetite for doing that, at least not yet.

Our pathetic leader, Harpo, says he wants a global warming agreement that embraces all major emitters, including India and China, and he's going to work to bring that about. This from the same guy who has scored political points by snubbing China at every opportunity. I'm sure they'll be eager to hear from that bozo. Of course he could always remind them that, now that we're in Afghanistan, we're a major player to be reckoned with. I'm sure that'll have them laughing in the aisles in Beijing.

No, if there is any possibility of an agreement that can be forged, it will be Europe that will have to find the consensus. Harpo's not going to bridge anything. On global warming, he's a thoroughly spent force.

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