Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Can Musharraf Weather the Storm?


The Red Mosque siege is over. Pakistani soldiers have put down the insurrection, killing up to 100-Muslim fundamentalists in the process including their leader, Abdul Rashid Ghazi.

The question is - now what? While many people are relieved that the mob of fundamentalists who operated out of the mosque are no longer around to beset them, that doesn't necessarily translate into a popularity boost for Musharraf. His fortunes remain very much in play. From TorStar:

The unruly tribal areas of Pakistan's borders are home to many extremist sympathizers, says Hassan Abbas, a research fellow of Harvard University's Belfer Center and former police official who worked in the area. "Every day in those areas there are new attacks. If it continues it could take things to an entirely different level."

He pointed out Musharraf has yet to face the crisis brought about by his suspension of Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudhry, a challenge to judicial independence. Blocking of rallies in support of the popular Choudhry threw the country into turmoil before the mosque siege.

"Musharraf is losing support, and anyone who stands for him at this hour will lose," says Abbas. "In the heat of summer people are angry and frustrated, and they blame him. I see no indication that his tough action will bring stability. It will be a miracle if he gets through it unscathed."

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