The Canadian people have mumbled: we don't trust Stephen Harper enough to give him a majority but we don't distrust him enough to return the Liberals to power either.
In a sense, weak Liberal leadership is the best thing Harper has going for him just as Stephen Harper's machinations keep the Liberals in the game. It's a Mexican standoff. But what if the Conservatives got smart and brought in a new gun, a moderate who could connect with the Canadian voter, someone in the mold of an old style "progressive" conservative?
My guess? I'm pretty sure that'd be a slam dunk for the Tories. They don't need to push a lot more buttons to get the five or six percentage swing needed to get into majority range. God knows the Liberals haven't reached the disaffected vote and the Tories have certainly gotten in there before. They know the way back.
I think the Canadian public is ready for a progressive conservative government - from the Tories, not the Liberals. Iggy's journey into the centre-right really hasn't paid off for the party, has it? C'mon, be realistic. He may have no end of fine qualities and talents but, politically, he's a dud.
If Harper & Company open the door to a moderate successor I'd bet Liberal support will collapse.