Monday, April 11, 2011

Is Japan a Ticking Seismic Time Bomb?

With Japan still reeling from the tragedy of its March 11th earthquake, seismologists warn that one or more of the other three tectonic plates may have been left under increased strain.

...scientists are warning that the March 11 event not only will lead to years of aftershocks but might also have increased the risk of a major quake on an adjacent fault. A new calculation by American and Japanese scientists concluded that the March 11 event heightened the strain on a number of faults bracketing the ruptured segment of the Japan Trench.

“There’s quite a bit of real estate on which stress has increased by our calculations,” said U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Ross Stein. “The possibility of getting large, late aftershocks to the north and south of the main shock is real.”

 ...The scientists are not making a formal prediction of another big earthquake. But they believe that the section of the Japan Fault to the east of Tokyo now has more stress than before March 11.

“That section of the subduction zone is clearly loaded,” said Chris Goldfinger, an Oregon State seismologist who was not part of the new research.

...“It will take probably a decade before this aftershock sequence is over,” Stein said. “The watchword in Tokyo should be long-term vigilance. Nobody should think this should go away in a few weeks or a few months.”

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