Yet that's similar to the scenario outlined by the International Crisis Group on the radicalization spreading across Central Asia and churning out recruits for movements like ISIS.
The ICG reports that somewhere between 2,000 and 4,000 radicals have left Central Asia to join fighters in Iraq and Syria and, eventually, they'll return to bring the insurgency to their homelands.
The five – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – crippled by corruption, poor governance and policing, have done little to address a threat as intricate as radical Islam. Instead, they are fuelling further radicalisation by curtailing civil liberties and initiating security crackdowns.
“It is easier for IS to gain recruits in Central Asia than in nearby Afghanistan and Pakistan”, says Deirdre Tynan, Central Asia Project Director. “Its appeal in the region is rooted in an unfulfilled desire for political and social change. Rich or poor, educated or not, young or mature, male or female – there is no single profile of an Islamic State supporter”.
Unfortunately the leaders of the five "Stans" have shown little inclination to accept the social, political and economic reforms needed to curb the ongoing and growing radicalism of their populations. We in the West have done little beyond turning our heads to their excesses. These tyrants are, after all, notionally on "our side."