tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32931256.post5424809052225256073..comments2024-03-18T21:55:56.412-07:00Comments on The Disaffected Lib: May I Have Your Autograph, Please, Mr. Taliban?The Mound of Soundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09023839743772372922noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32931256.post-41370546844135432842008-10-29T12:33:00.000-07:002008-10-29T12:33:00.000-07:00Unfortunately WG it doesn't work that way. Kabul ...Unfortunately WG it doesn't work that way. Kabul isn't going to survive under Karzai, not when other warlords like Dostum can kidnap people there and defy the police service in armed standoffs. We don't hear about the anarchic goings on in that city.<BR/><BR/>To hand the Pashtun their territory would mean giving them not just Karzai's homeland but also the tract of Pakistan that separates Islamabad from the oil and gas riches of Baluchistan.<BR/><BR/>It's wheels spinning within wheels.<BR/><BR/>Even Kabul depends on the opium trade for its prosperity and that means control of the countryside which is increasingly falling to the insurgency. There's nothing in Kabul to keep it afloat as some sort of garrison. <BR/><BR/>The non-Pashtun warlords are now picking sides - some are weighing joining the insurgency while others are reforming their militias in contemplation of a resumption of the unresolved civil war.<BR/><BR/>We never went in to win. When Hillier talked the feds into the Kandahar gig he should have mustered a force of at least 25,000 for that one province alone. The whole country required at least 300-400,000 combat soldiers. I'm not pulling these numbers out of the air. They're based on the ratios set out in the US military's new counterinsurgency field manual (written under the direction of Petraeus himself), FM 3-24.<BR/>That treatise states that you shouldn't even dream of going into a place like Afghanistan unless you can field one counterinsurgent for every 25-50 civilians. Do the math. Just over 30-million Afghans. Even if you go to the low end, 1:50, that's a force of 600,000 soldiers.<BR/>We've been running this war on the cheap and now we're hitting the wall.The Mound of Soundhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09023839743772372922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32931256.post-71502781133612222622008-10-29T12:14:00.000-07:002008-10-29T12:14:00.000-07:00Sorry, I meant "in the modern world", not "in this...Sorry, I meant "in the modern world", not "in this part of the world"...WesternGrithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06658358114507615351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32931256.post-59307668611940950852008-10-29T12:13:00.000-07:002008-10-29T12:13:00.000-07:00In a few decades the two countries will simply re-...In a few decades the two countries will simply re-unite anyways - as is the way in this part of the world. The more educated, more cosmopolitan Karzai-controlled region would far exceed the Taliban's economic success, and the Taliban would be unable to maintain a "nation". We would be able to enforce strict sanctions against the Taliban - without hurting any other part of the population...WesternGrithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06658358114507615351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32931256.post-76896339570662711312008-10-29T12:11:00.000-07:002008-10-29T12:11:00.000-07:00Or we could just divide Afghanistan into two parts...Or we could just divide Afghanistan into two parts. Let the Taliban have their region, have Karzai have his area, and have UN peacekeepers in-between, for a few years, until the Karzai regime can stabilize without any war going on... You can't expect a regime to stabilize during a war. Especially a new government founded on very weak backing.WesternGrithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06658358114507615351noreply@blogger.com