Why Has Nuclear Become the Rage?

Nagasaki

The industrialized world tends to react with a mixture of anger, fear and frustration when Third World nations pursue nuclear weapon capabilities. We're so used to the big powers - the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain having these weapons that we rarely even think twice about it. Sure, they're more stable than places like Pakistan and far more so than North Korea but, then again, the big states count their nuclear weapons in many thousands. The big powers also have a considerable array of delivery systems from intercontinental ballistic missiles, to submarine launched long-range missiles, to manned bombers, to cruise missiles, even to long-range nuclear artillery.

What makes these little nations willing to risk the anger of the world, including sanctions, to get a few, small weapons of their own? Consider this analysis from Lebanon's Daily Star:

"It is interesting to note that all these countries are united by two denominators, which explain their common objective of pursuing nuclear programs.

"First, the governing regimes are ruling in an insecure and unstable domestic or regional environment. India and Pakistan are involved in a dispute over the border and territorial issue of Kashmir. The authoritarian North Korean government has not yet given up on its strategic objective of annexing South Korea.

"The threat perceptions of the ruling elites in Egypt, Iran and the GCC countries are heightened through the unresolved Arab-Israeli conflict, the unpopular US involvement in the region, and the unstable situation in Iraq. And, Iran and the GCC countries are entering a struggle over strategic hegemony in the Gulf.

"Second, in the global scenario, on the one side are the US with the world's largest defense budget and huge military capability, as well as economic powerhouses Japan and the EU. On the other side are developing countries India, Pakistan, Iran, Yemen and North Korea, none of which possess the military capabilities or the economic strength of the developed countries. North Korea, Yemen and Egypt have to deal with poor economic performance and education standards, and there is no sign of any short-term alternative to bridge the economic or military gap.

"Thus, it appears that regimes which have existed over the years in an insecure domestic or regional environment or lack trust and confidence due to economic instability have increasingly developed threat perception toward potential enemies from within their own countries or region. It is in this context that they are trying to improve their strategic position by looking for short-term solutions. Many of these regimes equate security with enhanced military power, and nuclear enrichment seems the cheaper, faster and efficient alternative to overcome their insecurities and emerge as credible powers.

"From the North Korean perspective, a nuclear bomb boosts the regime's chances of survival and gives it an advantage in negotiations with South Korea. Similarly, for Iran, acquiring a nuclear capability will help the regime use it as a tactical means to gain an upper hand in the ongoing dispute with the UAE over the Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands. The Iranian regime may also attempt to develop a "containment policy" of the US influence in the region. As far as the GCC countries are concerned, it will be impossible to live with a nuclear Iran evolving as hegemon and thus they may be forced into a "nuclear race" to maintain the "balance of power" in the Gulf."

Our world seems poised on the edge of a wave of nuclear proliferation. Maybe we need to approach the problem from a new perspective. Whether India, Pakistan, North Korea or even Iran, our tired, predictable attitudes just aren't working and the nations we need to worry about know that.