All His Eggs in One Basket?

You need votes to win an election but you also need those votes in the right places.

Therein lies Stephen Harper's dilemma. His numbers aren't at all bad - only one per cent shy of the Liberals - but too many of those numbers come from one place, Alberta.

If Steve wants to be the Prime Minister of Alberta, he's a shoo-in, but he wants to govern Canada and he wants to govern with a majority government. It's great to have won the hearts and minds of the Wile Rose province but not as great as getting a real breakthrough in Ontario or Quebec where is support appears to be stalled.

This inbalance works to the direct advantage of Harper's key rival, Stephane Dion, whose Libs lead the Tories by 7 points outside Alberta.