We Can't Find Them So We Must Have Won

That's the reasoning underlying the claim of Brigadier General Tim Grant's assessment of NATO's latest offensive in Kandahar, "Operation Falcon's something-or-other." The general maintains there is "significant evidence that low-level Taliban have simply put down their weapons and run away."

What about the crap they were feeding us via our gullible press corps three weeks ago that we had 900-villains cornered with no way out, their capture or demise a sure thing? We supposedly had Afghans, Brits, Americans and our own guys on all sides of these Taliban, an airtight cordone from which there would be no escape. We had the whole enchilada - tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, artillery, machine guns, attack helicopters, strike fighters, you name it - and the guerrillas were doomed.

Remember, this was their pitch, not mine. I've reposted my skeptical take on this, originally posted on 22 December, in the item that now immediately follows this. Read it and you'll see how ridiculous this whole business has become. It's positively breathtaking how these commanders can claim great victories when they come up empty-handed.

It's Guerrilla Warfare 101, real entry-level stuff. Insurgents win if they retain the initiative. While they hold the initiative they decide when to fight and when to deny combat. When they find themselves outmanned and outgunned, they leave to return to fight another day in advantageous circumstances.

When we have them surrounded and they leave on their terms, WE LOSE. That's how we lost Operation Medusa and that's how we lost this time. Our people face a real challenge when the insurgents launch their Spring offensive. If we can't understand the rules of their form of warfare, what it means to win and what it means to lose, how are we going to handle them a few months down the road?

Insurgents don't try to control territory because that would require them to defend that territory against a superior force and they're not made to fight that way. Our side has to "control" territory, our side has to defend that territory - that's our job, not theirs. We have one rifle on the ground in Kandahar province for every 20-square miles of territory. How in God's name are we supposed to control and defend that territory with one rifle for every 20-square miles? I guess that's a lot easier so long as you can claim victories where there are none.