Friday, January 19, 2007
Why Blame Only China?
So China used a ballistic missile to take out one of its own weather satellites and the world rose up in anger.
Why are we so upset about China? I don't particularly like that country and I certainly don't like its repressive system of government but it is a sovereign state, an emerging industrial power and a steadily expanding global actor.
What has China done that the US didn't do over a decade ago with nary a whimper? Nothing. It took out one of its old satellites. Strictly "old hat" to the US Air Force.
Why have we sat silent while the United States continuously provoked China? Just how did we think China would respond?
Provocation? Yeah, there's been plenty of that. What do you think accounts for Washington's recently acquired fondness for India and its fledgling military alliances with that country? If you guessed China, bingo!
Take a look at America's new naval partner, India, and its rapidly expanding, blue water navy. The Indian navy has quite openly defined its "area of influence" to extend eastward all the way to the Sakhalin Islands. That blankets every inch of China's coastline. For what earthly reason does India, a country in grave need of infrastructure development at home, need to project naval power into the Philippine Sea, the East China Sea, the Sea of Japan and the westernmost Pacific Ocean all the way up to the coastal waters of Russia? Bingo again.
China, like the European Union and India, understands the importance of space. Like India, China is working hard on developing a manned space programme, long the exclusive preserve of the US and Russia. It is also making rapid advances in commercial space applications.
Just as China is getting into the space game, Bush declares American hegemony over space. Bush's space doctrine provides that America will decide which nations may have a presence in space and reserves the right to prevent nations acquiring a space presence that Washington considers hostile to its interests. Bush further declares that the US will not be bound by any treaties restricting the deployment of actual weapons in space. In parallel to this, America is developing an anti-missile system to defeat an attack on the US. Roll these factors into the Bush Doctrine of pre-emptive attack and you have an incredibly threatening posture that is if you're China.
How many protests did you hear coming from world capitals about any of those maneuvres? The Chinese and Russians were miffed but that was about it. We certainly bit our tongues and have now crept, hat in hand, to offer Washington our co-operation in its anti-missile programme.
Why should we be conerned about what Washington is doing in space? Have you heard of HMS Dreadnought? It was Britain's super-battleship before WWI whose very existence drove other nations to come up with similar warships of their own. London fueled a naval arms race that reached from Britain to Germany, the United States and as far away as Japan. It was an arms race that survived the defeat of Germany and continued on into the Second World War. It brought us names like Hood and Nelson, Arizona, Bismark and Yamato. These things take on a certain life of their own.
What was China's intent in taking down its own satellite? It probably had several goals. China wanted to make clear that it intends to have free access to space regardless of the Bush doctrine. China wanted the world to sit up and take notice of its new technological prowess. Above all I believe that China wants a space treaty with the US, a genuine agreement that would ensure the demilitarization of space. China needs that. Then again we all do.
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