Mushie - The Tail Wagging the Dog

Pervez Musharraf isn't much to look at. He's a little guy with a little guy's voice and he looks anything but martial when he dons his general's uniform. He's also living proof that looks can be deceiving.

Mushie is, above all else, a survivor. He's survived at least three assassination attempts. He's survived attempts by his country's top courts to thwart his excesses. He's survived efforts by Pakistan's democracy movement to have him reined in. He's somehow even survived the radicals in high positions in his own military.

This guy has astonishingly shrewd instincts. He knows what to say and when to say it. He knows how to duck and weave and how to play both sides of the street. He's quick to size up a situation and figure out how to turn it to his advantage.

Pervez Musharraf is relying on instincts now that tell him he can safely defy George w. Bush and restore military rule to his country. He knows, despite all the hollow rhetoric, America doesn't give a fig whether democracy exists in Pakistan so long as Islamabad's nuclear arsenal is in the right hands and Islamic fundamentalists are suppressed. He knows that Washington realizes that, without strongman rule, America's objectives in Pakistan are in real jeopardy.

What do George w. Bush or even NATO have to gain by weakening Musharraf's hold on power? Nothing, nothing at all. Undermining Mushie will only strengthen his opponents, many of whom are aligned with our own adversaries in Afghanistan.

The real concern now is not what Musharraf does to his country's constitution and democratic aspirations but what happens if he fails? He's already seen as America's pawn in its global war on terror. Would a weaker successor be able to be as pro-West as Mushie? Probably not. Will Islamic radicalism grow under a weaker head of state? Most likely. Will Pakistan's nuclear technology be as secure with the general out of the way? Hard to see how.

No, Musharraf may well need Washington's support but his sponsors need Mushie even more. So they'll make plenty of noise about restoring democracy, blah, blah, blah and then quietly return to business as usual.