Monday, January 14, 2008

Conservative Lead Evaporates - Again

Given the unreliability of polls, let's call it a statistical tie. After supposedly being up on the Libs by 7% over the Christmas holiday, Ipsos-Reid reports the Conservatives have now fallen to two points behind. Ipsos' tally - Libs 35%, Cons 33%.

The poll was conducted January 8-10, well before Harpo's aides called Danny Williams a liar.

Gee, with talent like Harper, Baird, Clement, O'Connor, Ambrose, MacKay and Flaherty, it's hard to understand why these folks aren't riding a comfortable majority. Maybe it's because we still remember the last majority Conservative prime minister. Then again, so does Harper.

8 comments:

  1. You are late with this news.I think this is the poll that you are referring to. Here is a new poll that is published on the CTV website. So there you have it.

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  2. You libloggers spent the last few months accusing Ipsos of shoddy polling and unreliable results when the showed the Cons in majority territory. I suppose now all the other polling companies are the inaccurate ones.

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  3. according to ipsos, they claim that all the movement in the poll numbers can be traced back to the results from the alberta subgroup.

    when you look at the n for this group and see that they only polled 92 (MOE 10) people, you might begin to question if there is any "real" movement at all

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  4. Conservative Lead Evaporates - Again

    And Dion's Personal Populairty numbers Dive - Again

    Rolling Back the Tide of Liberal Hope, One Post at a Time. ;-D

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  5. Boo hoo, the poor Conservative Pary operative anony trolls are upset at bad news. Boo hooo.

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  6. Such "bad news", tsk, tsk. Makes you wonder if the Liberals will finally trigger an election over it. Or not. Or maybe. Or not. Or maybe. Or not. Or maybe. Or not.

    In the meantime, Dion will continue to play election poll tennis on "What Canadians Want" while we strain our necks watching Dion's personal popularity numbers dive into the earth's core as he widens the gap with Jack Layton.

    Bad news? Oh yes indeed. And I'm loving every minute of it. ;D

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  7. mike,

    please specify the bad news.

    if you were to do a meta-analysis of all the polls done to date since Jan 2006, you would see that most (with a couple of exceptions such as one poll that had the cons @ 40% and this particular one) have the cons @ the mid 30's and the libs @ low 30s.

    Very similar to what the results were on election day.

    I do think it funny that lib supporters always dismiss a poll done by ipsos unless ipsos shows the libs in a good light. And then the poll MUST be correct.

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  8. "Boo hoo, the poor Conservative Pary operative anony trolls are upset at bad news. Boo hooo."

    Mike you cannot possibly believe that the Conservatives suddenly drops 23 points in Alberta of all places. Now do you?

    We are not talking about Ont.or Que.here. Alberta is the most Conservative province in this country. It is like saying that you believe pigs can fly. Now you do not believe it do you?

    JJ

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