International Crisis Group Sounds Alarm on Afghanistan

"The international community must now realise that stabilising Afghanistan requires a drastic overhaul of the institutions they have helped put in place and subsequently supported."

The International Crisis Group has issued a dire warning to the West on Afghanistan - reform the Kabul government from the ground up immediately or hand the insurgency/rebellion the very victory they've been fighting to achieve.

Afghanistan faces a critical test in the run-off between President Karzai and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah on 7 November and afterwards. A flawed second round will hand Taliban insurgents a significant strategic victory and erode public confidence in the electoral process and the international commitment to the country’s democratic institutions. Reforming and strengthening state institutions and establishing genuine constitutional governance must be tackled as the top priority if the political rot is to be stemmed and the insurgents denied yet another opportunity to exploit the crisis of legitimacy that is the product of a dysfunctional political order.

What the ICG is calling for seems impossible, the wholesale reformation of the Afghan government and its constitution. They may be right, they probably are. But in a country fractured by tribalism and crippled by warlordism that sucks power away from Kabul into the hands of fuedal warlords, this call for reform may be a desperate pipedream at best. Despite the very real constitutional crisis, the central government has been unable to consolidate its power beyond the capital. Much of the countryside is controlled either by warlords or by the rebels. The central government's realm seems to be shrinking fast.

Put simply, I think the International Crisis Group is sounding an alarm that is much too little, much too late. Afghanistan constantly defies attempts to solve its inherent failures by tweaking this or reforming that.

I watched an interesting documentary yesterday about Alexander's campaign to conquer India that touched on his previous efforts in what is now Afghanistan. What he found was that there was no country to defeat or subdue - just a mishmash of tribes of constantly shifting allegiances. For Alexander it was very much the problem of herding cats. How little has changed. Power in Afghanistan isn't won at the voting booth, it's brokered - often very briefly - among warlords who stand ready to ally with - or fight - any other. Just as Alexander couldn't unite the tribes, neither can we. We're beating our heads against a mudbrick wall.