It's Time for a Showdown at Washington's OK Corral

Watch for radical Republicans (they're not all that way, honest) to shut down the U.S. government in October.   GOP House leader John Boehner may emerge looking like an idiot who couldn't control the nutjobs in his party's ranks and the Republicans may pay dearly for that.

As for Obama, he knows not to trust the Repugs and sees no reason to try - again.

...there's really nothing Obama wants from Republicans. They had their chance at a serious debt-reduction deal and turned it down, and Obama obviously has no desire to waste his time with that again. Besides, with the deficit already plummeting, he doesn't need a deal anymore and couldn't get congressional Democrats to support one even if he did.

So he can stand firm pretty easily because there's nothing much Republicans can offer him. The only leverage they have is a government shutdown, and that isn't much of a threat. Both Obama and John Boehner know perfectly well that a shutdown would hurt Republicans more than it would hurt Democrats.

But that's logic, and logic is selling at a deep discount these days. The fever swamp wants a debt ceiling default, and there's a pretty good chance they're going to force one through. Boehner just doesn't have the clout or the influence to stop his lemmings from racing over the cliff. At this point, the most germane question probably isn't whether Republicans are going to force a default, but how long they'll hold out after they've done it. Just how badly do global markets have to panic before they finally come to their senses?

Eight weeks to go and counting.  It'll be here before you know it.