Russia's in. China's in. The United States is in. Iran is in, so is Israel. Everyone else within pipeline distance might soon be in also. It's still about Syria, sort of, in a way but that's what proxy wars are always like.
Russia is arming Assad and providing him with sophisticated systems that might turn out to be an effective air defence network capable of defending Syria against Israeli or American aircraft and cruise missiles. China is toying with the idea of establishing a Mediterranean naval presence in Syria. Iran is backing Assad against the Great Satan, threatening to attack Israel if the U.S. attacks Syrian forces. Israel has already conducted airstrikes inside Syria aimed, we're told, at taking out Russian-made air defence systems. The United States, meanwhile, is funneling money, weapons and training to the rebels or at least those it considers somewhat less odious than al-Qaeda fighters.
Obama was more or less honour-bound to strike Syria before Britain's David Cameron's participation was vetoed by Parliament. Now Obama has gone in search of Congressional authorization.
Meanwhile U.N. Sec-Gen Ban has said the U.S. must obtain authorization from the United Nations before attacking Syria. Right.
"The use of force is lawful only when in exercise of
self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations
charter and/or when the Security Council approves of such
action," Ban said. "That is a firm principle of the United
Nations."
Obama said on Saturday he was "comfortable going forward
without the approval of a United Nations Security Council that
so far has been completely paralyzed and unwilling to hold Assad
accountable."
It would be one thing if a few strikes could tilt the balance between Assad and the rebels as it did between Gadaffi and the Libyan rebels but that doesn't seem likely. Worse, an attack would probably up Russia's backing for Assad and the evolution of the drawn out proxy war.
Americans had it easy in case of Iraq and Libya. Saddam had no friends/supporters neither did Gadhafi. Syria/Assad is supported by Iran, Russia, China and Shiite population in Lebanon. He may also receive support from Iraq. It does not look good for America.
ReplyDeleteWe might all be wishing we had bomb shelters soon, and damn it, I'd horn in on Ned Flander's (like Homer and family did - at Ned's expense) but I don't know if their Springfield is the one in Oregon, Mass, Illinois, etc.
ReplyDeleteThe G20 conference will be a major wheel-and-deal with Putin. My guess is that everything will hold until the UN report happens.
ReplyDeleteNow, sky-is-falling types should understand that the US does not currently have the troops to get into occupation or invasion and it will take months to put something together around the USMC.
But the US does have enough weaponry to take the Syrian air defence structure and government communications apart, at relatively low losses to themselves.
Remember, too, the US invented Wild Weasel techniques, and nobody does it as well or has anything near to the US experience.
Now, once the air defence has been neutralized, then they can carry the opposition to critical government areas to take control.
Were I running the Oval Office, I would take out the Syrian Presidential Palace — and nothing else. But when I say "take out", I mean leave it as a crater. It is accompanied by a release that explains that it is a strike at Assaad personally, for the use of chemical weapons, and call upon him to resign.
It would be one thing if a few strikes could tilt the balance between Assad and the rebels as it did between Gadaffi and the Libyan rebels ...
ReplyDelete"A little under two years ago, Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary, urged British businessmen to begin “packing their suitcases” and to fly to Libya to share in the reconstruction of the country and exploit an anticipated boom in natural resources.
Yet now Libya has almost entirely stopped producing oil as the government loses control of much of the country to militia fighters.
Mutinying security men have taken over oil ports on the Mediterranean and are seeking to sell crude oil on the black market. Ali Zeidan, Libya’s Prime Minister, has threatened to “bomb from the air and the sea” any oil tanker trying to pick up the illicit oil from the oil terminal guards, who are mostly former rebels who overthrew Muammar Gaddafi and have been on strike over low pay and alleged government corruption since July.
As world attention focused on the coup in Egypt and the poison gas attack in Syria over the past two months, Libya has plunged unnoticed into its worst political and economic crisis since the defeat of Gaddafi two years ago. Government authority is disintegrating in all parts of the country putting in doubt claims by American, British and French politicians that Nato’s military action in Libya in 2011 was an outstanding example of a successful foreign military intervention which should be repeated in Syria."
The Independent