It's Not Easy Being a Liberal (or a Tory). It Shouldn't Be.

Three facts that reflect what it's like to support the Trudeau government.

Canadians are now one of the world's largest extractors of climate pollution, per capita

We're planning one of world's biggest increases through 2030

Our relentlessly increasing extraction has become a supersized gamble that threatens both climate hope and our economic stability

Trudeau talks about "phasing out" bitumen production, sort of turning off the tap. That sounds very green. Then again he says this even as his hand is opening that tap just as fast as he can. There's really no polite way to say this. He's a liar and he's lying about the very thing that's now imperilling human civilization, that's beginning to exact an ever increasing toll of lives in other corners of the planet.

Barry Saxifrage has a terrific essay in the National Observer that puts the hard truth into perspective and asks the questions we're ducking. He's even provided a couple of charts that present a stark picture of where we're actually heading.

The first chart reveals that Canada's fossil energy extraction represents 32 tonnes of CO2 per capita. That number is kind of meaningless until you compare Canada's performance against other leading economies. Then it becomes an eye opener.

The second chart shows how we stack up against the Americans now and into the near future.

Something to note here.  Even as America's extractive numbers, per capita, decline moderately to 2030, so too do Canada's - except for bitumen production. It's bitumen, good old Alberta Tar Sands crud, that drives our numbers ever upward. Is that what Trudeau means by "phasing out"? Has he succumbed to Trump Syndrome where fantasy overrides reality?

A new report from Oil Change International (OCI), "Climate on the Line", surveyed global projections and concluded:

"Over the next twenty years, the industry is set to expand oil production by more in Canada than in any other country. If it continues on this course, Canada could become one of the world’s largest extractors of the new carbon that would drive the atmosphere over the edge."

The numbers show that when it comes to pulling climate pollution out of the ground, Canadians are already among the most extreme in the world. And our future plans are shown to be equally extreme. Unfortunately, such supersized carbon levels also come with supersized risks to our climate and our economy.

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The OCI's report did the carbon budget math and concludes starkly:

"Canadian government simply cannot have it both ways. There is no scenario in which tar sands production increases and the world achieves the Paris goals."

The report "Extracted Carbon" from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) comes to the same conclusion. It shows that Canadian plans vastly exceed our largest plausible slice of the world's remaining safe carbon-extraction budget. By refusing to live within our share of a safe carbon-extraction budget it says we are pushing global climate safety out of reach.

In addition, the CCPA report says that that we are holding back needed climate action in another way. Our surging levels of extracted carbon are helping to create a global oversupply. This in turn is pushing fossil carbon prices lower. Falling prices for climate-polluting fuels undercut the economics of transiting to climate-safe alternatives in time. As a result, our expansion plans are "locking in" climate failure by "locking in" long lived carbon infrastructure which will continue pumping out climate pollution long after global climate emissions must go to zero.

Finally, Saxifrage poses the question we all need to put to our elected representatives, starting with the current prime minister.

Some people I talk to about our extreme carbon-dependency say it is just "politically impossible" for our political leaders to transition our economy to one that aligns with a safe climate. My response is: "how do we know? No leader in power has really tried to explain the situation to Canadians and then lead discussions on alternatives. Where are the speeches and reports and commissions? Where is the forum to discuss and evaluate alternatives? Where is the analysis of the risks we face on our current hyper-extraction path?"

Trudeau has told Canadians his government will heed the science. We're going to have a government that operates on knowledge, facts, not belief, faith like the last bunch. So where's this vaunted science on bitumen expansion and on pipelines? I think that might have to go into the "even more bullshit" file.