I'm Sure This Isn't the Best Way to Respond To a Referendum

Nothing quite dampens the fires of independence like police violence. Across Catalonia police in riot gear have resorted to extensive violence to prevent voters from casting ballots in the referendum. They've used batons, boots, even rubber bullets against the crowd. The video, and there's no end of it, is really inflammatory.

The mayor of Barcelona says some 460 people in that city have been injured by police.  This clip seems pretty representative.



Now, I'm thinking this senseless brutality won't dent the independence movement. There'll be more referenda and the violence will probably escalate. This could also lead to the formation of a liberation underground along the lines of Eta in the Basque country.

Foreign Policy reports that Madrid has overplayed its hand.


Instead of tamping down Catalonia’s separatist instincts, Catalan leaders say, Madrid’s response has just made the people yearn for independence even more.

“I believe it has changed some attitudes” inside Catalonia, said Raül Romeva, head of foreign affairs for the regional government. Big chunks of Catalan society — from firefighters to civil servants to students — have taken to the streets in recent days, energized by the national government’s response.

“It has been easy to see at that point that there is no will from the Spanish state for entering negotiations,” Romeva said.

He said that 80 percent of Catalans want a referendum — not that 80 percent will necessarily vote yes, but that a huge majority want to have a say, at least. Other Catalan leaders suggest 60 percent will turn out for the referendum. Any “no” vote is likely to be tiny, since, as the BBC notes, those opposed to the vote may stay home out of protest. Pro-independence candidates got 48 percent in the region’s 2015 elections.

...

This referendum, at least, is not expected to deliver Catalans from what many consider more than three centuries of forced marriage.

But as Britain is learning after Brexit, and Iraqi Kurds are learning after their own referendum this week, neither Spain nor Catalonia can put Humpty Dumpty entirely back together no matter what happens. Heightened political rhetoric and deeper mistrust between Spain’s most economically important region and its political heart will only continue, regardless of the outcome of Sunday’s vote.

Meanwhile, Foreign Policy's James Badcock suggests Spain might just be on the brink of another civil war.