When I heard about the 737 crash in Tehran overnight, my first reaction was "bring on the conspiracy theorists." It's not that I'm fond of coincidences - Trump assassinates Iran's top general; Iran retaliates with missile strikes on two US air bases in Iraq; a Boeing 737 (no, not a 'Max' but - whatever); a Ukrainian airline (isn't everything dodgy in Ukraine?); a crash hot on the heels of Iran's missile strikes; that's a lot of coincidences - maybe. But maybe it's also worth getting a few facts before racing to conclusions.
Our friend posts about a question supposedly by the New York Times' Nicholas Kristoff as to whether the Boeing jet might have been accidentally shot down by an Iranian anti-aircraft missile battery.
Then the hook:
If that turns out to be the case, Iran has committed an act of war against Canada. The League of Nations, among others, define an act of war as an attack by a state’s land, naval or air forces, with or without a declaration of war, on the territory, vessels or aircraft of another state. So this would appear to qualify, if true.That's a pretty good reach, especially for a self-proclaimed "law professor." Sorry chum but you're getting a bit too unprofessorial. An attack is deliberate, pre-meditated. It's not accidental. If this was an accidental shoot down then it wasn't an act of war.
Let's contrast our friend's theory with Iran Air flight 655 as that passenger jet transited the Persian Gulf on 3 July, 1988. As the aircraft approached the US guided-missile cruiser yet still within Iranian airspace, USS Vincennes, the warship fired a Standard surface to air missile, killing all 290 passengers and crew. The navy later said it was all a mistake. They thought the jetliner was an attacking jet fighter. Oopsie!
Now was that an "act of war"? The US Navy admitted that they deliberately fired on and shot down the target but claimed it wasn't an act of war even if they had an itchy launch finger.
But, if this is going to be settled by conspiracy theories, here's another. Cui Bono? Who benefits from a commercial airliner being shot down moments after it lifts off from Teheran's airport? Who benefits from shutting down air travel into and out of Iran? Iran? Not so much. Let's remember, a modern 'manpad' or shoulder-mounted surface to air missile, could take down a jet. With the right people and competent networks it should be possible to bring a few in. Is that what happened? How would I know?
My only problem with this post Mound, which I largely agree with, is that you took the time to actually read the self serving nonsense that that particular self promoting 'blogger' issues. I long ago stoped clicking on links to his nonsense shown on Progressive Bloggers' where in my view he has long outstayed his welcome. Nuff said!
ReplyDelete.. as a young lad.. my legal guardian passed Aviation and Space Technology magazines on to me monthly.. thus I was perusing detailed Accident Reports.. f'n terrifying but I was reading the likes of Rudyard Kipling, Jim Corbett's ManEaters of Kumaon back them, Nevil Shute-Norway (on The Beach) etc so I was steeled to the glamour, heroism & death of The Charge of the Light Brigade.. Churchill, and the perils of Everest, Charles Lindbergh, you name it.. I was also a 'fearful flier' till the late 1980's.. I left fingerprints in the armrests, even after stiff vodka shots.
ReplyDeleteI will lift a toast tonight to the brave folks who flew from Iran.. You could not pay me to take such a flight. I do not have any interest or family connection in Russia, Ukraine, Japan or India.. not a scintilla of curiosity to walk their streets or ride their tour buses .. Greece, Ireland, Portugal.. yes.. Venezuela.. you must be kidding !
We may someday gain some insight .. the black box, flight data recordings, and aircrew, tower audio.. detailed forensics and modelling may reveal some detail or basis. This is a grim business.. truly grim. If you have seen dead bodies after any traffic or driving accident (I have) .. you may understand the sheer abstractness of 'fatalities' but I have never encountered in person, in reality.. the debris field and human disaster level of a full commercial aircraft impacting the earth at 500 K + .. Nor would I speculate recklessly re any weaponry potentially involved. Ideally Iran will utilize the international expert analysis available.. determine what they can. Sadly, 'politics' & even factional religious or partisan hysteria may cloud the process or understanding.. Surely the omnipotent & infallible oracle Trump will inform the entire world of his technical analysis & blessed opinion..
The most interesting aspect is "manufacturing consent," to use Chomsky's term, about Iran Air flight 655 when compared to Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
ReplyDeleteBoth were shot by a plain mistake, US quietly admitted it, Russians did not, because it interfered with a narrative that Ruski troops were not operating there.
The facts remain that both were simply the tragic mistakes.
I wonder what WK would call the US invasions/bombings of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria? They meet his proffered definition of an act of war: "The League of Nations, among others, define an act of war as an attack by a state’s land, naval or air forces, with or without a declaration of war, on the territory, vessels or aircraft of another state."
ReplyDeleteOf course, the League of Nations went defunct before WW2, but perhaps WK didn't notice. To me in regular non-professional life, he is an flapping arm-waver extraordinaire based on his personal blog - look at me! Whether he is a decent lawyer I am not competent to say. I cannot find his past upbeat blogposts on Doug Ford or that fine chap Brad Wall on his site anywhere, but stepping back post by post for years for a look may be a flawed strategy on my part.
Some people are natural sh!t disturbers, which may or may not apply in this case.
For something with a bit more meat on it than the general news reports on the Ukraine Air crash, or any air crash for that matter, it's always worthwhile to gain more informed commentary from the UK-based PPRuNe network forum, where honest-to-god commercial pilots speculate. The PP stands for professional pilots, and some of them can actually spell:
https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/628650-ukrainian-aircraft-down-iran.html
BM
I can't see the Americans doing this one. Not under Trump, anyway. Too subtle. But the Israelis, yeah, I can well imagine it. They do more clandestine killing in the Middle East than anyone, and they really want the US to beat up on Iran.
ReplyDeleteMaintenance issues and/or more Boeing-737 issues likely to blame for the plane crash. Of course the lack of CDN Embassy (thanks to Harper & now Freeland/Trudeau) doesn't help the situation.
ReplyDeleteThe pin-prick Iranian missile strikes on US-Iraq bases were for public consumption and enough to personally bait and embarrass tRump for now.
Revenge is a dish best served cold as Iran knows. While Gaddafi got the public blame for Lockerbie, the Iranian-victims' families of the USS Vincennes 'mistake' knew better.