Friday, August 28, 2020

What's That Dripping Sound? Oh, It's What Remains of Alberta's Petro-Prosperity Stream.


We can't say we weren't warned. The fossil energy giants warned us. The Europeans warned us. The investment and insurance giants warned us. They told us, by their words and by their deeds, that fossil fuels, especially the high-carbon/low-value stuff - bitumen and coal, were a lousy bet, some at risk of becoming "stranded assets."

Athabasca's bitumen pits are as popular as a leper colony. The big insurers won't cover the projects. Big investment houses such as BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are trying to unload whatever they still have, if they can. The fossil energy giants are taking their leave before government comes calling with the cleanup bill for those tailing ponds. Exxon has just written off 20 per cent of the company's fossil energy reserves as economically unviable. When a company cuts 20 per cent off its asset sheet, it's a drastic act. Drastic enough that after nearly a century, Exxon has been dumped from the Dow Jones to make way for a tech stock.

Jason Kenney's UCP government just released a fiscal update that is reminiscent of a big black spot on a chest x-ray.
Revenue from the oilpatch is expected to be $1.2 billion this year, down from the $3.9 billion forecast and a far cry from better days in the sector, such as 2014-15 when those revenues were $8.9 billion. 
Revenues from the oil and gas sector haven't been this low since the early 1970s, according to government documents.

The oilsands are especially woeful. Bitumen royalties were expected to generate more than $3 billion this year, but instead could now provide just $686 million. 
Many oilsands projects are generating little to no positive returns this year, according to government documents, since many are unable to turn a profit. 
Projected corporate income tax revenue has been cut in half.
Omitted from this sob story is the environmental liability issue. The Alberta government's own in-house tally puts the remediation cost from the Tar Sands and the thousands of orphan wells at about $230 billion.  A $230 billion liability versus $1.2 billion in annual revenue. At that rate the government should break even in just under two centuries.

I know. Here's the answer. Let's build more pipelines. That's 'let's' as in "let us." The private sector won't touch these investments. These costs now have to be borne by the federal and provincial treasuries. Is that throwing good money after bad? Sure sounds like it.

2 comments:

  1. There are some believers in tar..

    https://nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/braid-ucp-says-some-people-are-writing-off-alberta-but-just-watch-us/wcm/852b3f4f-980b-4730-b571-ab50c5d9b8f0/

    We live in a world of denial, just look to the USA.
    Perhaps denial and hate are easier to promote?
    Honesty and sacrifice is a tough sell.

    TB

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  2. My sense of it is that no political leader wants to declare some of these fossil assets 'stranded.' Better to kick that can down the road for the next guy and build Potemkin Villages of prosperity.

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