The World Energy Council predicts global demand for energy will peak in 2030 and decline thereafter.
That's the good news.
Now, for the bad news. That's "per capita" global demand for energy. And since we're about to welcome another couple of billion "capitas" gross global energy consumption will just keep increasing.
...while overall per capita energy demand would begin to fall, demand for electricity would double by 2060, the council said, requiring greater infrastructure investment in smart systems that promote energy efficiency.
The “phenomenal” growth of solar and wind energy is predicted to continue, while coal and oil will fade from the energy mix. Solar and wind accounted for 4% of power generation in 2014 but could supply up to 39% by 2060, while hydroelectric power and nuclear are also expected to grow.
But fossil fuels will remain the number one source of energy, having fallen just 5% since 1970 from 86% of energy supply to 81% in 2014.
The council drew up three scenarios to assess different areas of energy use. The range of outcomes could see fossil fuels provide anything from 50% to 70% of energy by 2060, said the council, which is the UN-accredited global energy body.
Under two of the scenarios, oil production will peak in 2030 at between 94m barrels per day (bpd) and 103 mb/d, although the third scenario would see it peak and plateau at 104 m/bpd for a decade from 2040.
...But the council warned that keeping global warming below 2C would require an “exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments and with very high carbon prices”.
Its predictions for carbon emissions vary wildly depending on the strength of efforts to tackle the problem, from a reduction of 61% by 2060 to a slight increase of 5%.
Overall, the report’s theme of a grand transition envisages lower population growth, radical new technologies, greater environmental challenges and a shift in economic and geopolitical power.
Oh yeah, and for all three scenarios presented by the Council, we'll shatter the "carbon budget" in the coming 30 to 40 years. However, if we're sticking with the 1.5C carbon budget, we'll blow through that in the next five years.
