The British Government Has Done It. The Aussies Too. Why Won't Steve Harper?

Every coastal nation knows that people like to live along shorelines.   Oh sure there are people willing to live in places like Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but most of us live within a short hop of the Atlantic, the Pacific, the Arctic Ocean or the Great Lakes.   These are places where we build ports, where we start and end railway lines and highways.  They're also places where we build our biggest cities.

But coastal development carries risks.   One that we didn't foresee was climate change-driven, sea level rise.  No one can be sure just how much global sea levels will rise this century from the loss of glaciers and melting icepacks.   A very conservative estimate is at least one metre.  At the worrisome end of the scale are estimates of many metres, possibly tens of metres.

A generally conservative mind would look for something between the best case scenario and a mid-range estimate - two metres, possibly three?  Then you overlay your chosen figure on existing topographical maps to chart out areas of possible submergence and those at risk of inundation from periodic high tides and storm surges.   That gives you extremely valuable information you can release well in advance to local authorities and the public.   That gives them essential time to review adaptation strategies and to decide which areas are at such risk that they should be off-limits to further development.

The Brits released this very sort of information to their people two years ago.  Last month the Australians produced "inundation maps" focusing on low-lying areas of Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, south-east Queensland and the NSW central coast and Hunter regions.

We know L'il Stevie Harper is settled in landlocked Alberta so he probably doesn't have to fret about any of this but what about the rest of us?  What about all the Canadians in the Maritimes or those living along the shores of the Great Lakes?   What about coastal BC'ers?  Why aren't we getting this information?  That's the federal government's job.  This is exactly the sort of thing for which we pay taxes.  And if the Harper government is stalling, why isn't the supposed opposition going after them.   Is this what you get when you live in a petro-state?

Sea Level Rise Forecasts to Go Up, Way Up

It will be another four years before the IPCC releases its next landmark report but the word is already out that it will contain a big increase in sea level rise forecasts for this century. The last IPCC assessment warned of possible sea level rise of up to a couple of feet before this century is out. Like virtually every other assessment by this highly conservative group, subsequent data is showing that was seriously understated. From the Sydney Morning Herald:

Panel members, including [IPCC vce-chairman] Dr van Ypersele, met in Kuala Lumpur last week to discuss the consideration of the new Greenland and Antarctic data for the next report. Analysis of the reduction of the two major ice sheets will be a main focus of the next report.

''The reason there was a workshop in KL is that the IPCC knows very well this is an area that needs particular attention and where a lot of progress has been made,'' Dr van Ypersele said.

''There are a lot of satellite data that was not available for the fourth assessment report that will be available for [report] five … which are starting to show, but are quite convincing I must say, that both the Greenland ice sheet and the Antarctic ice sheet are losing net mass, not on the margins, but as an ice sheet [as a whole].''

Every time I read one of these reports I wonder when Canada's political class is going to take global warming seriously - make that "responsibly" - and at least begin the planning necessary to help our people adapt to what's coming. With two committed Oilheads camped out in the government's two, rent-free leaders' accomodations, it's probably not worth while to expect them to take any meaningful action to decarbonize Canada's economy and our society but at least those tools could start preparing us to meet what's coming.