Sunday, June 10, 2007

Prying Taiwan Out of Washington's Grasp


A number of reports claim China's recent military buildup is aimed at enabling it to hold America at bay while it reabsorbs Taiwan. From the International Herald Tribune:

"...an increasingly wealthy China is now building a military force tailored specifically to challenge any attempt by the United States to intervene in a conflict over Taiwan, Western and Chinese military analysts say.

"They say the People's Liberation Army is spending heavily on the hardware and technology it needs to keep the United States and its allies at bay if the Beijing leadership decides it must use force to defeat Taiwan or compel the island's leaders to negotiate.

"Without attempting to match the overwhelming U.S. military might, experts say, the army has developed a strategy of "area denial," where an array of precision weapons would be deployed in an attempt to keep U.S. forces, particularly aircraft carriers, at a distance for long enough that China could overwhelm Taiwan's defenses.

"The plans that China has to develop a submarine force, to develop long-range strike capability in its air force and deploy better ballistic missiles means it will be increasingly more difficult for the U.S. to guarantee the security of Taiwan," said Allan Behm, a Canberra-based security analyst and former senior Australian Defense Department strategic planner.

"If China's strategy were successful, U.S. forces could face defeat without suffering major military losses.

"'A weakened initial U.S. response to a Chinese assault on Taiwan, for example, could result in the collapse of Taiwan's military resistance,' said a Rand Corporation study for the U.S. Air Force published late last month. 'The island might therefore capitulate before the United States could bring all its combat power to bear.'

"'If that were to happen, it seems unlikely that the United States would continue the conflict, even though U.S. military power would largely be intact,' the study said."

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