Kosovo, or at least its ethnic Albanian majority, has declared its independence from Serbia. The seminal words there are "ethnic Albanian." Kosovo has historically been Serbian through and through. It's cherished by the Serbian people. But, mainly as a result of centuries of wars between the Slavs and the Ottomans, they allowed ethnic Albanians into the area and those folks settled in and bred themselves into a tidy majority. A dust up ensued and "bingo" they've taken the place as their own.
Israel is facing a similar demographic problem. Can't live with the Palestinians but not prepared, at least not yet, to live without them. The window may be closing on the two-state option and that's terrifying to a lot of Israelis. If the situation defaults to a one-state solution, the Palestinians would quickly be the majority, capable of voting their interests - if they were ever given a vote. Israel would have to maintain a South African-style apartheid or lose Israeli control of their homeland. Yikes!
Best of all there's the American southwest. A lot of Americans are becoming alarmed at the demographic explosion of the Latinos. It's believed that Latinos could become an ethnic majority in various southwestern states before too long. What then? What if they use their voting power to "have it their way"? It's not too hard to imagine that "their way" wouldn't be entirely comfortable for America's caucasian majority.
Hasta la vista, Yanquis! You're not the only ones who "Remember the Alamo."
Israel is facing a similar demographic problem. Can't live with the Palestinians but not prepared, at least not yet, to live without them. The window may be closing on the two-state option and that's terrifying to a lot of Israelis. If the situation defaults to a one-state solution, the Palestinians would quickly be the majority, capable of voting their interests - if they were ever given a vote. Israel would have to maintain a South African-style apartheid or lose Israeli control of their homeland. Yikes!
Best of all there's the American southwest. A lot of Americans are becoming alarmed at the demographic explosion of the Latinos. It's believed that Latinos could become an ethnic majority in various southwestern states before too long. What then? What if they use their voting power to "have it their way"? It's not too hard to imagine that "their way" wouldn't be entirely comfortable for America's caucasian majority.
Hasta la vista, Yanquis! You're not the only ones who "Remember the Alamo."
4 comments:
The Israel one is an interesting comparision. I don't totally buy the US southwest separating as the US has a long history of different groups coming in huge numbers that were different from the majority (i.e. Germans in the Midwest in the late 1800s, Italians in the Northeast in early 1900s, Norwegians in Dakotas and Minnesota in the late 1800s) yet after a generation or two, most fully assimilate and are English speaking, so I suspect the same will happen in the Southwest. The only real difference is they are note White, but lets remember the South prior to the large migrations to the Northeast in the early 1900s had a Black majority in many states and many large cities whites are a minority so I don't buy this totally either. In the case of the Midwest, there are several states where more than a 1/3 are of German ancestry, yet you wouldn't notice it today, but would have 100 years ago.
Where I think this sets a bad precedent is in places such as Chechenya in Russia, Abkhazia in Georgia who have already said they will use this as a precedent.
Spain is dead set against Kosovo because of its Basque problem and the possibility of losing the north and Bilbao. It does set a dangerous precedent although the West is thirsting for a success after so many international disasters. I'm sure Iraq's Kurds are following this closely.
As for the US, I suspect you're right in the context of secession but I think it's entirely reasonable that the Latinos would use their political clout on a local basis in their best interests.
In one of his rare astute moves, George Bush saw the writing on the wall and advanced his immigration policy in the face of strong Republican opposition. Alienating the Latino vote on immigration could cause the Republicans long-term damage in the south and deliver some Republican states into the hands of the Democratic Party.
It's on the immigration issue that I suspect we'll see the first example of Latino franchise in action.
Cheers.
One other point. Bedevilling the Israeli position on the Palestinians is the groundwater issue and the fact that Israel has become dependent on the main resources that are found in the "occupied territories". Water is not only indispensible to life but it's very easily cut off.
Actually it is not only Bush who has taken a softer position on immigration, but also McCain. Interestingly enough both come from states with large Latino populations, whereas some like Huckabee who take a harder line come from states with relatively small Latino populations. If the Latinos turn to the Democrats en masse, it would move Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico from swing states to solid Democrat ones, while make Texas a swing one. It wouldn't affect California, as the Democrats already have a lock on the state and I can only seeing that changing if the Republicans become the preferred choice amongst Latinos.
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