A Dust-Up, Sure. War? That's Iffy.

Could the assassination of Iran's general Suleiman trigger a war? Possibly but we're not there yet.

From America's perspective, what would war with Iran look like? A Ghadaffi-style bombing campaign maybe. Of course the Libyan air war was in support of forces rebelling against the Libyan dictator. A similar rebellion/insurgency in Iran seems highly unlikely. If anything Trump's blunder has drawn Iranian factions closer together, rallying to the flag sort of thing.

A land war, possibly in the form of a long-feared Sunni versus Shiite holy war for the heart of Islaam pitting Saudi and Egyptian forces against Iran and possibly Iraqi armies? The possibilities seem endless and uniformly bad.

Whatever Trump might do to Iran would have a ripple effect in neighbouring Iraq, itself a dominant Shiite population. The Iraqi parliament has already passed a resolution calling for US forces to be expelled from that country.

Such a war might also force Trump's hand in Syria where ISIS forces are said to be regrouping. Trump's veiled claim to Syria's oil could be smoked out. That would be interesting.

So far both Russia and China have been pretty reluctant to reveal their posture on Iran, in particular, and on the greater Middle East in the wake of the Suleiman assassination.

Trump has also mobilized America's national security brigades. Even John Bolton, Trump's short-lived former national security adviser, has announced he'll gladly testify before the Senate impeachment hearing if only he's issued an invitation subpoena. I expect Trump wasted no time calling his Senate impeachment coordinator, Mitch McConell, to scotch that idea.

War? Maybe but there's a way to go yet.

Then again the bulletin just released by Reuters that the US-led coalition in Iraq has informed the Iraqi military that they're pulling up stakes and getting out offers plenty of opportunities to cast bones and read entrails. Are they running for cover? Are they clearing the decks so Trump won't have to fret about them if he bombs Iran back to the stone age? Are they afraid of what America's lunatic-in-chief might pull next and simply don't want to hang around to find out. Christ, who knows?