Is Raul Castro's Cuba the First Big Winner in Cold War II?

Now that Washington and Havana appear to be on the road to kissing and making up, it's worth considering whether the timing is really that spontaneous?

Cuba was always the Soviet's toe hold in the Americas.  It was over Soviet designs in Cuba that the world was brought to the brink of nuclear Armageddon.

The Soviets propped up Fidel Castro by buying Cuba's sugar crop at premium prices.  With the collapse of the USSR, Cuba's economy took a big hit as Moscow withdrew.  Since then Cuba has been mainly important to American foreign policy for the Cuban exile vote in Florida that some, such as Clinton and Bush, shamelessly courted with promises of "get tough" action against the Communist regime.

But, as Obama correctly noted, America's sanctions haven't worked.  The exile vote doesn't command the clout it enjoyed in decades past.  And then there's Putin.

Vlad, the "Russian Impaler," has been responding to Western sanctions with military feints and other provocations: bombers flying at the edge of Western airspace; 'near miss' intercepts, mystery submarines showing themselves in the home waters of European states.

We don't know what has passed between Moscow and Havana lately but, for optics, there could hardly be anything to surpass a renewed Russian presence in Cuba - Russian aircraft deployed to Cuban airbases, Russian ships and subs patrolling in the Gulf of Mexico, that sort of thing.

With Russia's economy reeling from sanctions and collapsed world oil prices and Putin's own position lately in question, this is a truly propitious moment for Washington to do some long overdue Caribbean housekeeping and bring Cuba back into the American fold. It's good for Cuba. It will do wonders to improve America's flagging reputation with the OAS.  It should keep Putin from getting any ideas about parking Russian forces in America's back yard as NATO has done in Russia's.  It almost puts a fresh coat of paint on the Monroe Doctrine for Moscow and Beijing alike.

Smooth move Barack Obama.

Is Capitalism About to Return to Cuba?

Oh Fidel! 

Cuba's communist economic model has run its course and is overdue for replacement, according to noneother than Fidel Castro.

Jeffrey Goldberg, a correspondent for the Atlantic magazine, asked Castro if Cuba's economic system was still worth exporting to other countries. Castro replied: "The Cuban model doesn't even work for us any more."

With the one remaining communist power, China, having embraced capitalism, Castro's remarks really shouldn't be too surprising.   Cuba has been wallowing economically since the Soviet Union, its former patron, dissolved.

Cuba + Wealth = ?

Here's something we've never had to visualize since Fidel Castro sent Battista packing - a Cuba flush with money. A lot of money. Money on a scale that's never been imagined by Cubans or by those who've kept the embargo thumbscrews on the place these past, oh, 50-years.

According to a report in The Guardian, Cuba may have considerable, untapped oil reserves, enough to place it in the top 20-oil producing nations within a matter of years.

"Mother nature, it emerged this week, appears to have blessed the island with enough oil reserves to vault it into the ranks of energy powers. The government announced there may be more than 20bn barrels of recoverable oil in offshore fields in Cuba's share of the Gulf of Mexico, more than twice the previous estimate.

If confirmed, it puts Cuba's reserves on par with those of the US and into the world's top 20. Drilling is expected to start next year by Cuba's state oil company Cubapetroleo, or Cupet.

"It would change their whole equation. The government would have more money and no longer be dependent on foreign oil," said Kirby Jones, founder of the Washington-based US-Cuba Trade Association. "It could join the club of oil exporting nations."

This probably couldn't have come at a worse time - for Washington - now that Beijing has proven just how wonderfully communism and capitalism can get along.

I am no apologist for the excesses and wrongs committed during the Fidel years although, in fairness, he probably killed a lot fewer people in Central America than some US presidents did. I'd just like to see the Cuban people catch a break for once. That is long overdue.

Fidel Deals Himself Out

The 49-year reign of Fidel Castro is over. The Cuban strongman has advised his countrymen that he won't be returning as president or commander-in-chief of his country's armed forces.

Castro has had a remarkable half-century run, a mark not typical of strongman rule. His longevity likely owes a great deal to the memories of the tyrant he ousted, Fulgencio Batista. While some opponents claim Castro turned Cuba into a police state, they choose to overlook the tyranny and corruption of the Batista regime.

Those who praise Castro generally applaud his reforms in public education and health care.

There is no doubt that Castro brought good things to his people and there's no doubt that he also was a ruthless dictator. He is a nuanced character, a blend of good and bad, readily seen differently from differing vantage points.

Fidel is expected to be replaced by his brother, Raul, who, at 76, will probably be replaced himself before long.