Who Will Lead the Tories into the 2015 Election?

If there was just one thing that Tories learned from Monday's by-elections it was that they're up against a resurgent Liberal challenge with Justin Trudeau at the helm.  They probably didn't need the by-elections to tell them that, by contrast, their own leader is becoming increasingly unpopular if not outright toxic to Tory fortunes.

Stephen Harper has said he intends to lead the Conservatives into the 2015 election but that decision might not be his to take any longer.

The party establishment isn't going to want a wounded leader going up against a popular, energized Liberal contender.  There are rumours of two, possibly three, latter day Dalton Camps already operating in the wings.

At this stage it's hard to imagine too many Tories willing to risk all by rallying to the side of Stephen Harper.  He's just not the sort of guy who makes a lot of friends.   He doesn't earn loyalty.  If anything he's a nasty little shit.

What happens next depends on whether Harper has not only taken himself down but has taken down the Reform wing with him.   The conditions might be ripe for a PC reformation.

There's not a lot of depth from the Tory front bench to answer the call for a new leader.  MacKay might have aspirations but he's something of a spent force and then there's the little matter of how he sold out the PCs.   Jason Kenney?  Possibly, but I think he has a "no wife, no babies" problem with the social conservative base.  He's also a westerner.  And, besides, Kenney- MacKay et al have  all logged years of  loyal service to the Grand Corrupter, the Prince of Darkness, Beelzebub himself.   With an election less than two years away and a party in need of rehab, Tories might well be looking for a new, fresh face.

Did I mention Jim Prentice?  No?  Well he's said to be weighing his options.  Although he's a Calgarian, he has lengthy Progressive Conservative credentials.   He was generally seen as moderate (at least compared to some of his colleagues), sophisticated (not a faith-based mouth breather) and he's been out of Harper's cabal long enough for the taint to wash off.

There's another name that's surfaced on the rumour circuit.   Now brace yourself.   How 'bout Jean Charest?   Some Tories think Charest could be a viable contender in a race to replace Stephen Harper.  Charest stepped in before when the party was in extremis.  He's affable, fairly well known and liked across Canada, and he's from Quebec.   Those are attributes the Tories could use in a leader right now.

Who knows, maybe Harper will find some way to hang on.   Maybe the Tories will answer the Liberals' prayers and go into the 2015 election behind this prime minister.

I Heard It Through the Grapevine

Ever have a non-partisan political discussion? Most of us are so miserably enmeshed in partisan politics that it's tough to turn non-partisan, especially when you're having a lengthy political discussion with, say, a lifelong Tory insider. For several decades I've had a close friend from the Dark Side with whom I've had my very best political chinwags.

The other day our conversation turned to Stephen Harper. I mentioned I thought Harper must be getting close to quitting time. Unable to win a majority and his legislative agenda tied up in knots, why would a guy want to hang on any longer? My Tory friend said he thought Harper would leave except for the prospect of an election call this fall. Unless he manages a miracle and somehow swings a majority, Stevie will be packing his bags.

I asked what the Tory rumour-mill had on possible successors. My friend said that, up until a couple of weeks ago, Jean Charest's organization was laying the groundwork for the Quebec premier to stage a comeback. Then, it seems, some sort of health issue popped up, ending Charest's ambitions to join the ranks of Canada's prime ministers.

Interesting bit of gossip. Just thought I'd pass it along.