Getting Unstuck

America seems genuinely stuck in the quagmire of today's Iraq. Experts on all sides of the debate seem to agree on one thing: there are no good options at this point. Fair enough. Not every problem can be solved, not every danger eliminated. That's life.

Sure the United States should have seen this coming. The disastrous outcome should have been just as obvious to Britain. Even Australia, with its experience of following the U.S. into Vietnam, ought to have known better. Shoulda, coulda, woulda. Bush, Blair and Howard as the Three Stooges.

Maybe James Baker's Iraq Study Group will come up with a brilliant solution after the mid-term elections in November but don't hold your breath. So, what's the solution to a situation that presents only bad options? Obviously you need to go for the least bad option.

Here's the problem with that approach. At this point, America's and Iraq's interests are becoming divergent - quickly. What is in America's best interest probably isn't in Iraq's best interest. That's just another sad fact of life.

Washington needs to find a way out of Iraq. The American people have had enough of this adventure and they're willing to show that at the polls. The leadership has failed in its foremost challenge - it has failed to keep the electorate onside. The American people have conclusively decided this war is not winnable and, even if it means the humiliation of defeat, they want out.

What of Iraq? This country has been left with a weak, ineffectual government; vicious, sectarian strife; an insurgency far beyond the capability of its indigenous army; widespread and growing support for partition among the Kurds and Shia; external influences from Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

There may be no good options for the U.S., but what of Iraq's options? To survive the next few years, Iraq needs the support of its neighbours. It needs Iran to thwart any Shia secessionist movement. It needs Syria to aid the Sunni. It needs both the U.S. and Turkey to keep the Kurds in line. It needs strength from outside because it's woefully weak inside. It's hard to imagine any of these neighbours supporting a continuation of the status quo. None of them like the American presence on their doorsteps.

Washington doesn't have much leverage with Iraq's neighbours at the moment. They're not blind. They see the one nation that genuinely threatens them haplessly bogged down in Iraq and so it serves their interests to keep Iraq destabilized.

The key to this may be the complete withdrawal of America's presence in Iraq as part of a pact to secure the co-operation of the neighbours in a new Iraqi statehood. What else has America got to negotiate with? It seems it would be in everyone's interests, save for Israel, for America to withdraw from Iraq. That might just be the best option for Iraq and the United States.