The Other Civil War

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We're bombarded with news reports about sectarian strife in Baghdad so widespread as to border on civil war. Iraq, however, is undergoing another civil war, one that could split the country.

To the north of Baghdad lies the city of Kirkuk. It is a city populated by Arab Shia from the south, by Turkomen and by Kurds. Saddam sought to Arabize Kirkuk by driving Kurds out and bringing Shia in from the south.

Kirkuk is a real prize because it sits atop and commands what is believed to be the country's second-largest oilfield. The Kurds want the city badly and the others don't want them to have it.

In order to get the Kurdish Autonomous Region to agree to join the new Iraqi federation, Baghdad had to agree to accept the new Kurdish constitution. This was a shrewdly framed document, drafted with the help of Peter Galbraith, that defines the future Kurdish state.

Saddam did little to exploit the oil resources in the Kurdish north, apparently to punish the troublesome Kurds. That means that most of it remains available for development.

When the Kurds drew their constitution, it provided for two classes of oil resources; those in development before Saddam was toppled and those that remained undeveloped. The Kurds agreed that revenues from oil fields already under development would remain Baghdad's to distribute, equitably, among all Iraqis. The undeveloped motherload, however, would remain the exclusive resource of the Kurds and their semi-autonomous government.

The Kurdish constitution made the future of Kirkuk much more important. Whoever gets Kirkuk gets the oil fields and, because they're undeveloped, a Kurdish Kirkuk would mean great wealth for the Kurdish Autonomous Region.

Who owns Kirkuk, that is the question. To decide the issue, the KAR has decided to hold a referendum in Kirkuk next year. In the meantime there's a lot of preparation to be done. This involves driving out the Shia Arabs who were brought in by Saddam and giving those houses back to their Kurdish owners. But the Kurds aren't stopping at that. They're also drawing in waves of Kurdish settlers, newcomers, to Kirkuk to tip the referendum balance next year.

Kirkuk has set the cat among the pigeons. The Sunnis are particularly sensitive to oil reserves because most of the known reserves are located within the Shia south and the Kurdish north. The Sunni are determined that Kirkuk and its oil remain part of Iraq. A recent gathering of Sunni sheiks resulted in a veiled threat. Sheik Abdul Monshad warned, "Kirkuk must never become part of Kurdistan. It is an Iraqi city and we will take all routes to prevent the divisions of Iraq."

The fear seems to be that a Kurdish Kirkuk will mean the end of hopes for a unified Iraq. It is a resulted welcomed by no one save the Kurds themselves. It is opposed by Iraq's Shia and Sunni; by Iran; by Kirkuk's Turkomen and, on their behalf, by Turkey itself, not to mention by the United States.

Suicide and roadside bombings have increased lately in Kirkuk and a trench has been dug across the southern side of the city to funnel traffic through a couple of well-manned checkpoints. At Kirkuk restaurants Arabs, Turkomen and Kurds continue to eat together. Sectarian tensions, however, are increasing. Ali Mehdi, a Turkomen member of the provincial council, warned, "the people won't accept the rule of the Kurdish parties. A civil war could break out any minute."

The Kurds know they're playing a high stakes game over Kirkuk but they recognized that when they crafted their constitution. If Kirkuk goes to the Kurds they will have little incentive to remain part of Iraq which could, in turn, lead the Shia to take the same position on the southern oilfields, effectively ending any unitary Iraq, any Iraq at all.