The Final Chapter for Bashar Assad

Things are not looking up for Syrian strongman, Bashar Assad.

His first problem is the Sunni Muslim coalition of Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia (ordinarily not the best of friends) that has materialized for the sole purpose of running Assad out of Damascus.

The advances are not only a sign of the Assad regime's weakness, said Mario Abou Zeid, a research analyst with the Carnegie Middle East Centre, but also indicative of the strength of the new alliance between the three Sunni power brokers.

Their desire to force a shift in the balance on the ground in Syria before further negotiations about the country's future are held to have finally over-ridden long-held regional differences, he said.

"This regional group has forced those opposition groups and various factions fighting on the ground to fight under one umbrella," he said.

"By creating this 'Army of Conquest' and by supporting it, having the Nusra Front as its main pillar and surrounded by the remnants of the Free Syrian Army as well as groups such as Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam and others, this type of cooperation … has been a tremendous success."

The model is now being copied in areas such as the Qalamoun – the mountain ranges between Lebanon's Bekaa Valley and Syria – where opposition forces this week began a fierce battle against the Islamic State, Syrian regime forces and the Hezbollah militants fighting alongside them. This is a three-sided conflict - on one side are the Nusra Front and its allies backed by Qatar,Turkey and Saudi Arabia, on the second side are Hezbollah, the Syrian regime and Iran and on the third side is the so-called Islamic State.
Assad also faces the threat of a coup.  The president has already arrested his spy chief, Ali Mamlouk.

Mr Assad is struggling to keep together the regime's "inner circle", who are increasingly turning on each other, sources inside the presidential palace said.

Even before Mr Mamlouk's arrest, the web of intelligence agencies with which the regime has enforced its authority for four decades was in turmoil, with two other leaders killed or removed.

Last month, Rustum Ghazaleh, the head of the political security directorate, died in hospital after he was attacked by men loyal to General Rafiq Shehadeh, his opposite number in military intelligence, who was in turn sacked.
Worst of all, Der Spiegal reports that Assad is running out of troops and has been forced to recruit mercenaries, now mainly from Afghanistan.

In order to prevent the collapse of Syrian government forces, experienced units from the Lebanese militia Hezbollah began fighting for Assad as early as 2012. Later, they were joined by Iranians, Iraqis, Pakistanis and Yemenis -- Shiites from all over, on which the regime is increasingly dependent. But the longer the war continues without victory, the more difficult it has become for Assad's allies to justify the growing body count. In 2013, for example, Hezbollah lost 130 fighters as it captured the city of Qusair and has lost many more than that trying to hold on to it. Indeed, Hezbollah has begun writing "traffic accident" as the cause of death on death certificates of its fighters who fall in Syria.

The Iraqis have almost all returned home. Rather than fighting themselves, they largely control the operations from the background. The Iraqi militia Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, for example, organizes the deployment of Pakistani volunteers in Syria. But no ethnic group is represented on all of the regime's fronts to the degree that the Afghan Hazara are. Exact numbers are hard to come by, but some 700 of them are thought to have lost their lives in Aleppo and Daraa alone. What's worse, most of them don't come completely on their own free will.

It's hard to ever count a guy like Assad out but his regime does appear to be unraveling even as his opposition coalesces into something far more effective. Will this coalition dissolve once Syria is sorted out or will they continue to reduce ISIS in the field?

Justin, Tommy - Here's Your Talking Points

Look, if you can't nail Harper on this ISIS business, you're not fit to govern anything much less our country.

What you need to do is pry the lid off ISIS.  Show Canadians what lies beneath, who stands behind.

Start with the notion that this seemingly well-organized, well-trained, well-equipped and obviously well-funded ISIS army didn't rise magically from the sands of the Arabian deserts.

ISIS is an armed force that was quite carefully and skillfully manufactured. Somebody, with a lot of money and know-how, raised ISIS.  That sort of undertaking leaves traces - all over the place.

Western intelligence scours that region.  We know the Dr. Frankenstein who created the ISIS monster that now rampages through Syria and Iraq.  We've known all along.  Why not name the fiends?

When Obama refused the Saudis' orders to attack Assad, their chief of skulduggery, prince Bandar bin Sultan vowed to raise an army in the deserts of Jordan to attack Syria. He did precisely as he'd promised. We did nothing to stop him.  We watched him recruit, train, arm and fund an army of religious extremists that would become ISIS.

Let's name the countries we're really up against while we're trying to "degrade" ISIS - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar.  Those are the states who created and funded and armed ISIS.  They're the states that will create and fund and arm the next ISIS too.

It's called "state sponsored terrorism."    We're very, very familiar with that term. We've been using it since the Reagan era as a justification to bomb people we don't like.  Regan used it, so did GHW Bush and Clinton.  Shrub Bush used it big time when he castigated Saddam for being in league with al Qaeda.

This time it's our supposed allies that are the states sponsoring this most diabolical terrorism of all.  This isn't their first kick at the can and, judging by the past, it likely won't be their last either.

Ask Harper, straight up, who created ISIS?  Where did it come from?  Who raised this army?  Who trained it?  Where was it trained?  Who equipped and armed it?  Where did the weapons originate?  Who funded it and who directed it?

Ask Harper how we're going to prevent the people who created the ISIS monster and the monsters that preceded it from creating the next monster?  What will that be?  Where are we going to be fighting next?

A decade ago Canada got swept up in the fight against al Qaeda.  Now we're getting swept up in the fight against ISIS.  What iteration of this same degenerate monstrosity are we to fight ten years from now?

Ask Harper how a conventional force, especially an air force, can ever make a real dent in an unconventional force that can morph at will from a conventional, fighting force into an insurgency or even dissolve into gangs and individuals to be reconstituted somewhere else into the next al Qaeda or the next ISIS?

Ask Harper if it's worth attacking the snake, wouldn't it be even more worthwhile to cut off its head and end this once and for all?

We're never going to wipe out the legions of extremists willing to enlist in outfits like ISIS.  They're a dime a thousand.   In fact, the more of them we kill the more of them we recruit to their cause.

We can, however, wipe out the directing minds who stand behind the curtain pulling the levers.  We've been doing their dirty work and covering up for them for way too long and look where that's brought us.

Granted they're the same bunch that just placed a juicy 15-billion dollar order with us for armoured vehicles but, hey, we castigated the French for agreeing to sell helicopter carriers to Vlad Putin during the Ukraine fiasco.  It would be more than slightly hypocritical for us to deliver weapons of war to the Saudis, wouldn't it?

So Justin and Tommy, start asking Harper a few pointed questions.  Then ask him why we keep getting dragged into inconclusive wars fighting Frankenstein's monsters when we could be going after the evil doctor himself?