Saturday, December 15, 2018

What Country Poses the Gravest Threat to Canada?

Is it Iran? How about North Korea? Russia maybe? Or could it be the United States of America?  Could America really be the greatest threat we're facing? I think you can make a pretty good argument for that.

Washington has pretty much derailed the fight to tame climate change. It began when Trump took the US out of the Paris climate pact, a move that encouraged others, such as Russia and Australia, to follow suit.  The consensus is in tatters.

I think before long we'll look at 2018 as a turning point in how the world lost the fight against climate change. Look what what's coming out of the Katowice climate summit - precious little.  A rule book on how nations are to report their greenhouse gas emissions that comes into effect in 2020. That's it. A rule book. 2020.

To put that in perspective, the world is on notice that we must slash fossil energy emissions by half by 2030.  It initially was set at 45 per cent but emissions have begun increasing again over the past two years. We're heading in the wrong direction - fast. A rule book governing emissions reporting is a far cry from the Herculean chore of radically slashing emissions in an astonishingly short window.

Trump has made our slim chance of meeting these severe emissions cuts far worse by gutting environmental regulations; promoting the gamut of fossil fuels including coal; giving "moral cover" to other leaders intent on a high carbon future; and "souring goodwill" between the have and have-not nations and reneging on America's $2 billion pledge to the Green Climate Fund.

In my previous post there was a look at all the measures we must take, not just fighting climate change, if human civilization is to continue. The chief of the Potsdam Institute, Johan Rockstrom, details nine planetary boundaries we must heed before we'll have any hope of succeeding on climate change. The hard truth is that we're already out of bounds on a few of them and they're critical to the wellbeing of today's young and the generations that will follow them.  There's not much point in struggling with climate change if we don't deal with the rapid loss of biodiversity, the growing challenge of ocean acidification, our exhaustion of the world's farmland and our deepening contamination of our already inadequate freshwater resources. By the way, that's not an exhaustive list. In effect we're struggling to find the political will to put out the grease fire in the kitchen while doing nothing as flames consume the rest of the house.

Trump simply doesn't care about any of this. Not his problem.  His crass response to the 1,600 page National Climate Assessment produced by hundreds of scientists at 13 federal departments was, "Yeah, I don't believe it." The reality of climate change is whatever Trump believes it to be and Trump doesn't believe anything that contradicts his wrecking ball instincts.

It's not North Korea or Iran that troubles me. It's the United States of America. That is humanity's mortal threat.

Thursday, December 13, 2018

What We're Really Up Against.




Climate change is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the future of humanity. It's just one piece of a far greater problem that won't be solved with a minuscule carbon tax.

For years I've argued that we can't hope to thwart climate change if we treat it as some standalone threat which is precisely what we've been doing. That cavalier approach could, probably will be our undoing.

Climate change is just one existential threat that is tightly interwoven with others. To sort even one we must sort them all. I have tried to lump them into three categories: climate change, overpopulation and over-exploitation of the planet's finite resources.

Johan Rockstrom, co-director of the Potsdam Institute, warns that when it comes to averting climate breakdown, eliminating fossil fuels is the easy part. He says there are nine planetary boundaries we must not cross if human civilization is to survive.
'(The framework) answers where are the biophysical processes in the Earth's system that regulate our ability to have a stable climate system and planet. And what you find is that it's not only about carbon, it's also about biological systems and processes. It is taking all the planetary boundaries seriously and (recognising that) they all interact with each other.'
'If you read the 1.5°C report carefully, it tells you that, yes, we have to basically decarbonise the world's energy system by 2045, 2050 by the latest, to stand a chance at 1.5°C. But the assumption is, and it's really a prerequisite to that feat, that the overall resilience of the planet is maintained, that carbon continues to be sequestered (stored) in all our natural ecosystems. 
'How we deal with natural capital and the living biosphere will be fundamental to whether we will fail or succeed with Paris (the Paris Agreement to limit global warming).'
'We focus all our attention on coal, oil and natural gas, but when you look at the agenda overall, that's the easier part of the climate challenge. The much more challenging part is water, soil, biodiversity, nitrogen, phosphorus, the bio dimension of the economy and of the climate challenge.  
'The key here is to take a systems approach (i.e. understand how ecosystems and climate interact) and to take a full life cycle approach, and then to look at the systemic challenges around all the aspects of the bioeconomy. If one does that, I think many solutions will emerge.'
So we have these planetary boundaries and our survival depends on staying within them. Which brings us to another line of argument routinely advanced on this blog - the need to shrink the global economy until it is safely within the finite limits of our planet's ecology.
'The first task is to define, through Earth system analysis, where the boundaries are. That's the task that I, and my scientific peers with me, have focused our attention on. The planet boundary framework is in no way a solution or a monitoring scheme. It gives you the boundaries within which we have a good chance of maintaining a stable planet.

'Then, of course, the exciting question is, where are we and how are we progressing over time against these boundaries? Now, can we measure that? Yes, we have increasing (measuring) capabilities ... based on data from, for example, global Earth observation systems.'
Then comes the hardest part - equity. Not only do we have to find a way forward that's not driven by perpetual exponential growth, we have to find ways to fairly allocate resources and budgets, nation by nation, sector by sector. It's an odd form of rationing among nations and we're either going to accept it or we're finished. It's that simple and that obvious.
'We are working very hard, as are very many research groups around the world, to develop methodologies of how to quantify the boundaries for different nations and for different sectors and in society. That is a challenge, definitely. It is possible, scientifically, to define, for example, that 10 million tonnes of phosphorous maximum are allowed to flow into the oceans each year. That's a global boundary number. 
'Now the question is, how do you distribute that between Germany and the US and China in a scientific but also in a transparent and equitable way - i.e. how is the global phosphorus budget to be distributed in quantitative budgets between nations?' 
Here's Rockstrom giving a TED Talk from way back in 2010 or, as I like to call it, "the good old days".




The "Trump Effect" - Bringing Climate Change Down on All Our Heads


How far has Donald Trump set back the fight to tame climate change? According to an opinion piece in Foreign Policy, Trump has derailed the efforts that came from the 2015 Paris climate summit.

To understand how damaging the Trump effect has been to global decarbonization, it’s important to understand how the Paris Agreement was supposed to work—and how important an actively engaged United States was to the effort. The overall goal is well known: to keep global temperatures “well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”

...The architects of the agreement hoped that meeting existing pledges—even weak ones—would catalyze faster deployment of green technologies, leading to economies of scale, reduced technology costs, and positive spillovers that all would benefit from. This may sound somewhat theoretical, but in fact it is how previous successful efforts at decarbonization have worked in practice. For example, Germany’s widespread deployment of solar photovoltaic technology in the 1990s and 2000s spurred dramatic cost reductions that have opened a door to decarbonization across the world, from Mexico to India. Meeting any pledges under the Paris Agreement could therefore open up new space for parties to take on more robust commitments over time.

At least that was the hope. There are three distinct channels, however, through which the Trump effect is damaging this institutional process.

First, the rollback of environmental regulations burdensome to the fossil fuel industry, including major Obama-era policies to fight climate change, has increased the attractiveness of investing in the dirtiest fossil fuels. The risk that these investments could be “stranded” by committed climate policy has been reduced. For institutional investors making judgments between different projects, this increases the attractiveness of the dirtiest projects vis-à-vis low-carbon alternatives.

We can already see the impact. Following the 2015 Paris deal, in 2016 there was a falloff of investment in the dirtiest fossil fuel projects, including coal and tar sands, as investors became increasingly concerned that global leaders were serious about meeting climate objectives. However, the Trump effect reversed this trend in 2017, as North American investors poured resources into carbon-intensive, financially risky, and environmentally destructive fossil fuel projects.

We can see the mirror image when it comes to investment in renewables: 2016 was a bumper year, but in 2017 the Trump effect reversed the momentum.

It is true as some have argued that market fundamentals—in particular cheaper renewables and gas—along with ambitious state and city efforts will ameliorate some of the damage of the Trump effect, but at the very least, one should expect years of stasis, litigation, and uncertainty. Given the size of the U.S. economy, slower deployment flattens learning curves for green technologies globally, making it costlier for other parties to the Paris Agreement to take on more ambitious pledges in the future.

Second, the U.S. decision to withdraw has created political and moral cover for further defections from the agreement. Russia and Turkey have abandoned plans to ratify, while Australia reversed a decision to implement measures to comply with its Paris pledge, all citing Trump’s withdrawal decision. Most significantly, the newly elected president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, has promised to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, also pointing to the precedent established by Trump.

It is true that other major players including the European Union, India, and China remain committed to the Paris Agreement and are on track to achieve their pledges. But the critical question was always whether these three players would take on more ambitious commitments in 2020, which they already have the technical ability to achieve and had already hinted at a willingness to accept. They are unlikely to take the political risks of announcing a more challenging target in the absence of a similar commitment from the United States. In this manner, the Trump effect could be grinding the Paris “ambition mechanism” to a halt. 
Finally, the Trump administration’s behavior is souring goodwill between developing and developed country parties at ongoing negotiations. The Trump administration reneged on a pledge to the Green Climate Fund, leaving an outstanding liability of $2 billion, and has opposed stringent rules for reporting on financial commitments. These decisions have aggravated distrust between developed and developing countries.
The Trump Effect is a malignancy. One by one other nations follow Trump's lead. Consider that, since the Paris climate agreement of 2015, we have learned that our only hope of achieving the 2 degree Celsius target rests in cutting carbon emissions by half by 2030. That's an astonishingly brief window to achieve such a Herculean result.

Time is not on our side. Trump may be the nail in the coffin of our hopes. But, the threat America poses to the survival of humanity goes well beyond Trump.

... it’s equally a mistake to see withdrawal as the aberrant act of an unconventional president. In fact, it was widely supported across the Republican Party and the wider conservative movement and reflects broader and deeper structural factors within the U.S. political economy, including the entanglement of fossil fuel interests and politics. 
Furthermore, the U.S. withdrawal fits neatly into a pattern established by Republican administrations extending back nearly four decades: President Ronald Reagan famously declared open war on solar energy and was determined to reverse as many environmental regulations as possible in service of the drilling and mining lobbies; the George H.W. Bush administration delayed the agreement of a climate treaty in the late 1980s and at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit refused to commit to specific emissions reductions; and a decade later President George W. Bush renounced the Kyoto Protocol.


 

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Trump's Pecker Problems Mount



David Pecker may be Donald Trump's longtime pal but he's not about to risk jail for the Mango Mussolini.  Pecker and his company, AMI (National Enquirer), have cut a non-prosecution deal with Team Mueller, a development revealed shortly after Trump lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen, was sentenced to three years for his own Trump sins.

National Enquirer publisher American Media Inc. agreed to accept responsibility for its role in a $150,000 payment to silence a former Playboy Playmate about her alleged affair with President Donald Trump before the election. 
Under a non-prosecution agreement, the company admitted its purpose was to suppress the woman’s story and prevent it from influencing the election. According to the cooperation agreement with AMI, Trump’s longtime lawyer Michael Cohen and another campaign official met with AMI Chairman David Pecker about the scheme around August 2015. That official’s involvement has not been previously reported.
“As a part of the agreement, AMI admitted that it made the $150,000 payment in concert with a candidate’s presidential campaign, and in order to ensure that the woman did not publicize damaging allegations about the candidate before the 2016 presidential election,” the prosecutors wrote in a statement announcing the deal.
Prosecutors have still not revealed the identity of the Trump campaign aide who accompanied Michael Cohen to meet with David Pecker to discuss how AMI could help bury negative stories about Trump during the campaign. It's been rumored that two other women "sold" their stories to Pecker's National Enquirer.

Curious, isn't it, that Trump's litany of woes seem to fall into just two categories: his pecker and/or the Russians.

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Theresa May Struggles to Find a New Brexit Strategy


She reaches down deep to find her inner Gollum

When a Canadian Missile Almost Sparked World War III



I wasn't aware of this and I'll bet neither were you.

January 25, 1995. Norway, near the Russian border. A Canadian designed and built Black Brant, four-stage rocket is fired on a mission to study the aurora borealis.  Norwegian authorities had advised their Russian colleagues of the launch but...
What [Norwegian authorities] didn't know ...is that the Brant's radar signature looks just like a U.S. sub-launched Trident missile. 
The radar operators at Russia's Olenegorsk early warning station promptly reported the incoming missile to their superiors, but not a soul on duty within the military had been notified of Adolfsen's plans. 
The officers at Olenegork believed it could be the first leg of a U.S. nuclear attack. 
Four years after the Berlin Wall came down and Russia was in the throes of change, stable systems had been demolished and replacements had yet to fall into place. One thing that had gotten only more developed since 1991, however, was the Kremlin's mistrust of the United States.
So as the Brant streaked its way near Russian airspace, military officers had to decide if this was an electro-magnetic pulse attack that would disable their radar and allow for a full on American attack, and what they should do about it. 
The matter was decided when the Brant separated, dropped one of its engines, and fired up another. The radar signature now looked so much like a multiple re-entry vehicle (MRV), a missile carrying multiple nuclear warheads, that military officers no longer had any doubt. 
There were now five minutes during which the missile's trajectory would be un-tracked by Russian radar, and when it could strike Moscow; a slice of time that was devoted to deciding whether to launch a counterattack. 
Boris Yeltsin was alerted, and immediately given the Cheget, the "nuclear briefcase" that connects senior officials while they decide whether or not to launch Russia's nuclear weapons. Nuclear submarine commanders were ordered to full battle alert and told to stand by.
Apparently Yeltsin doubted the U.S. would launch a surreptitious attack and within five minutes, Russian radar came back confirming the missile was heading harmlessly out to sea.

Russian citizens didn't find about about the incident for weeks, and of course it's been reported in the U.S. news since. But the event never achieved the renown of the Cuban Missile Crisis, though it seems to have brought us even closer to the brink of nuclear war.



Theresa May Gets Taken to the Woodshed

The British prime minister, beset with Brexit bungling, reminds us why Westminster truly is the Mother of all Parliaments




After enduring this drubbing, May headed to Europe for what some are calling her "Desperation Tour" trying to find someone willing to renegotiate the Brexit deal that's a non-starter in Parliament. There's some agreement on the part of the EU to "clarify" terms but no apparent appetite for yet another deal.

One Time - Okay, a Typo. Two Times - That's Illiterate.


Not a hard word, "smoking." Signs everywhere read "No Smoking." They're inescapable. Just two syllables, real easy.

Unless you're America's twitmeister in chief, the Mango Mussolini himself, Donald "On the Run" Trump.

Yesterday, Trump the Lump tweeted to his faithful followers: “Democrats can’t find a Smocking Gun tying the Trump campaign to Russia after James Comey’s testimony. No Smocking Gun… No Collusion.”

A Smoking Gun indeed. Mia Farrow responded with this:



Hostage?



It sure smells like a hostage-taking. 1) a Canadian, 2) in China, 3) Huawei CFO in custody in Vancouver facing extradition to the United States for allegedly violating US sanctions against Iran.

The hostage is Michael Kovrig, a former Canadian diplomat now with the International Crisis Group.
“International Crisis Group is aware of reports that its north-east Asia senior adviser, Michael Kovrig, has been detained in China,” the thinktank said in a statement. 
“We are doing everything possible to secure additional information on Michael’s whereabouts as well as his prompt and safe release,” it added. 
China’s foreign ministry and ministry of public security did not respond immediately to questions faxed earlier about Kovrig’s detention. 
The exact reason for the detention was not immediately clear.
China has been demanding Canada release Huawei's Meng Wanzhou or face reprisals. This sure sounds like reprisal.

Monday, December 10, 2018

The March of the Dinosaurs



I remember the day when it arrived. We had prepared a special place for it in the file room. A sales rep brought it in, unpacked it, plugged it in and we all gathered around to witness its majesty. I had bought my first fax machine.

Back then I was determined to stay on the bleeding edge of office technology for small law firms. One of the first 'boutique' firms in the province to computerize, not only for the support staff, lawyers too. The productivity gain was enormous. It was a wonderful time, I think.

Today, however, the fax machine is the clerical equivalent of the dodo bird, an endangered species seemingly destined for extinction. Blame the Brits if you must.
On Sunday, Matt Hancock, the British health and social care secretary, banned the purchase of facsimile machines by the National Health Service effective Jan. 1, 2019. He also ordered that faxes be phased out completely in hospitals and physicians’ offices by April, 2020. 
Oh, but how Canada – a country even more in the poisonous grip of the fax than Britain – could use this common sense initiative. 
“We don’t underestimate the enormity of the challenge to remove all our machines in such a short time, but we cannot afford to continue living in the dark ages,” Mr. Hancock said in the release.
In my day so much has come and gone - bias-ply tires, drum brakes, plugs and points, carburetors, incandescent light bulbs, betamax and VHS, floppy disks, mini-cams, the once ubiquitous Walkman, corded tools and appliances of all descriptions, on and on and on.

Now it's the humble fax machine's turn to be put down. Such is the fate of the days when men were made of oak and ships were made of iron. Gone, gone, gone.

It's been said that our children are the mirror of our own mortality. Tell me about it. I have a son-in-law who works for Microsoft helping to develop something called blended or mixed reality technology. Apparently it has something to do with layering artificial reality atop normal reality, whatever that is.

Russia Must Stop Undermining American Democracy. That's the Republicans' Job.



The Republicans are masters at the dark arts of undermining America's inconvenient democracy. Today they're going far beyond the mundane tactics of gerrymandering and voter suppression although both are still flourishing.

In their unceasing quest to transform America into a one-party state, the GOP is getting no end of help from their corporate sponsors.

Former Wisconsin senator and partner with the late John McCain in the last desperate but failed attempt to implement campaign finance reform, Russ Feingold penned a Guardian op-ed yesterday describing how "Republicans are undermining democracy state by state."  They're throwing out the rule books, flouting democratic tradition and convention, no matter what anyone says.
This is not how democracy works, and these maneuvers in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and North Carolina are not just power grabs. They are deliberate efforts to undermine democracy and our faith in it. And these efforts are getting more brazen and desperate every year.

Everything from gerrymandering to attempts at voter suppression have been long-term projects of the monied interests. But, like the white supremacists’ public actions and the attacks on the media in the age of Trump, Republicans making their power grabs around the country are particularly emboldened right now. The lame-duck session concept isn’t new either – it has just being taken to new extremes. Congress has used lame-duck sessions repeatedly for work that should have been conducted during the regular session. North Carolina Republicans showed Wisconsin Republicans how to mess with democracy back in December of 2016 when they successfully diminished the powers of the incoming Democratic governor Pat McCrory. A lame-duck session should only be for emergency measures. Too many people voting is not an emergency.
The infamous Koch brothers, Helmut and Gunter, are still at it, as ever. Only now they're spreading their filthy lucre into Britain.  George Monbiot describes how the Brothers Sinister are fueling the hard right cause in the UK.

Meanwhile TruthDig brings word from Reps.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) about how congressional freshmen are getting tuned up by corporate forces before they're even sworn into office.
...contrary to the ideologically neutral advertising—the private conference featured a heavy dose of speeches by corporate CEOs and completely shut out organized labor and members of the progressive community. 
“Our ‘bipartisan’ congressional orientation is co-hosted by a corporate lobbyist group,” Ocasio-Cortez noted, likely referring to the Koch-funded American Enterprise Institute, which is co-sponsoring the event. “Other members have quietly expressed to me their concern that this wasn’t told to us in advance. Lobbyists are here. Goldman Sachs is here. Where’s labor? Activists? Frontline community leaders?”
American democracy is on the ropes and, this time, it can't be blamed on the Russians. This time the country is being subverted from within by the GOP, decidedly not "the party of Lincoln" any longer.

Maybe Big Money Will Get Their Ear



Nothing perks up the ears of neoliberal politicians - like our very own - more than talk about money.  And, today at the climate summit in Katowice, Big Money is telling them their economies face losing a lot of money, a lot, perhaps as much as 23 trillion dollars - a year, if they keep cowering before the threat of climate change.
Global investors managing $32tn issued a stark warning to governments at the UN climate summit on Monday, demanding urgent cuts in carbon emissions and the phasing out of all coal burning. Without these, the world faces a financial crash several times worse than the 2008 crisis, they said. 
The investors include some of the world’s biggest pension funds, insurers and asset managers and marks the largest such intervention to date. They say fossil fuel subsidies must end and substantial taxes on carbon be introduced.
...“The long-term nature of the challenge has, in our view, met a zombie-like response by many,” said Chris Newton, of IFM Investors which manages $80bn and is one of the 415 groups that has signed the Global Investor Statement. “This is a recipe for disaster as the impacts of climate change can be sudden, severe and catastrophic.”

Investment firm Schroders said there could be $23tn of global economic losses a year in the long term without rapid action. This permanent economic damage would be almost four times the scale of the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis. Standard and Poor’s rating agency also warned leaders: “Climate change has already started to alter the functioning of our world.”
The good news is that prime minister Trudeau has promised to end Canada's subsidies (whatever that means) to the Bitumen Barons eventually. Then again, that's a Trudeau promise so you'll have to take it for whatever you imagine it's worth. Canada admits subsidies of about two billion a year. The IMF says what we're really bestowing on the fossil fuel industry is more than $34 billion a year.  Somebody is cooking the books and my money is on those building 60-year, multi-billion dollar bitumen pipelines.

Modern politics, however, is not concerned with the long term or your kids and certainly not your grandchildren. Their world is limited to the next electoral cycle, perhaps two at the outside. Trump speaks for many when he says, "yeah, I won't be here then." It's a contagion, like the 1918 Spanish flu. Funny how it sounds reprehensible coming out of Trump's mouth but we're fine with it so long as our leaders don't come right out and say it.

Paradise Revisited



The massive wildfire that devastated the town of Paradise, California last month might be just an introduction to our new normal.

Hell on Earth:
Ruth McLarty, an experienced surgeon, was fairly certain she was about to die in a particularly grisly way. Surrounded by a hellish inferno of burning trees and cars, McLarty reasoned the flames would engulf her long before the smoke could choke her to death. 
Trapped in nearby vehicles, some of McLarty’s colleagues made similarly macabre calculations. Two nurses, stuck in the back of a stalled police car, contemplated shooting each other. Another nurse rolled down her window and gulped in the smoke. McLarty edged her car away from a burning wreckage, fired off some final messages to her sister and called her daughter, who said she could hear the roar of the blaze over the phone.
“Once you feel heat, you know that your car can’t last very long,” said McLarty, a slight, deliberate woman who, little over an hour previously, was in a hospital conducting a gallbladder operation when she was told to evacuate. 
“You can hear other people’s cars blow up. I grew up thinking that when people died in fires, they died from the smoke and so they didn’t really suffer. But I’m thinking ‘this is coming fast enough … I don’t think that I’m gonna die from smoke.’” 
As McLarty arrived at this grim conclusion, a bulldozer emerged from the sun-blotting pall of smoke and shoved an abandoned car off the road, opening an escape path for McLarty and a few others to dart to safety in a nearby field. “This poor man. I mean, he’s just driving to his death, and they cleared a path,” McLarty said. “It was apocalyptic.”
85 dead, dozens missing. 9 out of 10 homes mere ashes, some with bones still undiscovered.
The visceral trauma of having a town wiped off the map is the nadir in an astonishing burst of recent wildfires – of the 10 most destructive fires in California’s recorded history, five have occurred since October last year. 
“The landscape is changing into the appropriate climate zone that we are moving towards,” said LeRoy Westerling, a climate change and fire expert at the University of California, Merced, who attempts to work out how wildfires will spread as temperatures continue to rise. “The fires seem to be outpacing our predictions. The Camp fire shocked me by how fast it was.”
Along the west coast the wildfire season grows longer and longer, no longer just a seasonal affliction, fires reaching from the US-Mexican border into northern Alaska.

To the fossil fuel barons and their dutiful stooges in our legislatures and Parliament, this is what you're bequeathing us with your insistence on flooding world markets with the filthiest, highest-carbon ersatz petroleum on the planet.
Something on the scale of the Camp fire, where a funnel of flame seared through a town in a few hours, could’ve conceivably occurred 50 years ago but it would’ve involved a “very unlikely sequence of climate events you wouldn’t see again”, Westerling said. 
“Now we are seeing it happen again and again, year after year,” he added. “The climate will continue to warm and will continue to surprise us. No one alive today will ever see a stable climate system again. This is going to be changing for the rest of our lives.”
...“A whole bunch of fires have piled on to the top of each other and haven’t stopped,” said Scott McLean, deputy chief of Cal Fire, who oversaw crews working 24-hour shifts during the fight to save Paradise. “I grew up in this state and you’d never really get fires like this in November or December. We’re now fighting fire all year round. There’s no fire season any more. People are tired. It’s a constant battle.” 
...The situation is set to become worse. An exhaustive climate change assessment by the US government predicts the area of the western US consumed by wildfire annually is set to double, or even increase sixfold, within 30 years as the planet continues to warm.
America's Nero dismisses climate science out of hand with a curt, "I don't believe it." Canada's prime minister is quite the opposite. He says he gets it but then he goes back to driving a massive bitumen pipeline across the very lands of people who live under this new wildfire nightmare.

Top climate scientists have been clear about one thing for years. The only chance we have of averting runaway climate change lies in the "induced implosion" of the fossil fuel industry. Fossil fuels, especially the highest carbon stuff - coal and bitumen - must be left in the ground. What are the chances of that when our prime minister is bent on constructing a multi-billion dollar, 60-year pipeline from the Athabasca bitumen pits to "tidewater"?

Sunday, December 09, 2018

With One Foot in the Bunker Already, Trump Needs a Tough-Minded Chief of Staff.



The "stable genius" of the Oval Office is shopping for a new chief of staff. The current placeholder, retired general John Kelly, is leaving in just a couple of weeks. It's hard to imagine Kelly being upset about taking his leave from the Asylum for One, a.k.a. the Trump White House.

Kelly, like former state secretary Tillerson, clashed with Trump, especially when the latter's instincts ventured into illegality.  Kelly also knew Trump's tendency to agree with whomever he last had his ear and built a corral around the dissolute beast to staunch unwanted access.

By many accounts, Trump has become something of a haunted man. He too senses that special counsel, Robert Mueller, is closing in. Perhaps Trump can feel Mueller's hot breath on his neck.

Now, more than ever, Trump needs a steadying hand but he's shown no sign of wanting that, just the opposite. Prudence was not foremost in Trump's mind when he brought the bellicose John Bolton aboard as his national security czar.

Who wants to bet what sort of chief of staff Trump wants next? Think he wants another disciplinarian, one who will keep his truly base instincts in check? What fun would there be in that?

UPDATE:  It's getting worse for that silly bugger all the time. Trump had his eye on Mike Pence's chief of staff, Nick Ayers, to fill Kelly's slot. Nick has turned Donald down. Apparently he's looking to get himself and his family out of Dodge, pronto. Betcha Trump wishes he could do the same.

Bleed the Fatted Calf. It's Only Fair.



Renowned economist, Thomas Picketty, and a posse of 50 other prominent economists, historians and former politicians, have a prescription to relieve the dangerous pressures building in Europe - TAX THE RICH.

A group of progressive Europeans led by the economist and author Thomas Piketty has drawn up a bold new blueprint for a fairer Europe to address the division, disenchantment, inequality and rightwing populism sweeping the continent.

The plan, crafted by more than 50 economists, historians and former politicians from half a dozen countries, includes huge levies on multinationals, millionaires and carbon emissions to generate funds to tackle the most urgent issues of the day, including poverty, migration, climate change and the EU’s so-called democratic deficit.
...the “manifesto for the democratisation of Europe” says EU institutions are stuck in “a technocratic impasse” that benefits the rich.
“Following Brexit and the election of anti-European governments at the head of several member countries, it is no longer possible to continue as before,” says the document. 
“We cannot simply wait for the next departures or further dismantling without making fundamental changes to present-day Europe.” 
The move underlines the gulf between the preoccupations of the UK and those across the Channel. While the UK is consumed by its tortuous EU exit process, Europe’s pro-EU political forces are concerned with avoiding losses to anti-European populists in next May’s European elections. 
The left-leaning authors criticise movements dedicated to “hunting down foreigners and refugees”, but also parties espousing what they call “hardcore liberalism and the spread of competition to all”.
This may sound radical. It shouldn't. It's Europe cleaning out the Augean stables of neoliberalism. Who else is neoliberal? Oh yeah, us.
The EU has been accused of failing to address the manifest unfairness of huge multinationals such as Apple, Google and Amazon channeling profits through member states where taxes are lowest. 
The budget would be worth 4% of the EU’s GDP – four times the current budget. Funds would be raised from four sources: an extra 15% levy on corporate profits, tax increases on individuals earning more than €100,000, a wealth tax on personal fortunes above €1m, and a tax on carbon emissions. 
Half of the proceeds would be returned to member state governments. A quarter would go to research, innovation and education. A fund to better manage migration and a fund to make agriculture and industry greener would also benefit.


(And, please, before you astutely point out that the photo is not of a calf, fatted or otherwise, but of a very pregnant cow, don't. And, yeah, I know, it's been Photoshopped.)

Saturday, December 08, 2018

Are We Reverting to a More Primitive Order?



It may be one of the most important, rarely asked questions of the day. Are we reverting to a more primitive order, tribalism, and can liberal democracy survive, or at least remain healthy, if we ignore it?

In the Canadian context, the rise of tribalism has to be considered in the American example, a nation and a society that have succumbed to the tribal contagion.

I've assembled a few essays you might find helpful.

Yale law professor, Amy Chua, penned an op-ed in the New York Times  in February, 2018 entitled, "The Destructive Dynamics of Political Tribalism."

A right wing take is that of Patrick Buchanan in July of this year, "Will Tribalism Trump Democracy?"  Buchanan begins by touching on the rise of tribalism in Israel and Poland.

In The Atlantic in October of this year, Chua joined fellow Yale law professor, Jed Rubenfeld, on "The Threat of Tribalism" in which they question whether America's cherished Constitution itself can withstand the clash of tribal forces.

One of the most helpful is Andrew Sullivan's essay in New York magazine from September of last year, "America Wasn't Built for Humans." Here are a few excerpts from Sullivan's piece:

Over the past couple of decades in America, the enduring, complicated divides of ideology, geography, party, class, religion, and race have mutated into something deeper, simpler to map, and therefore much more ominous. I don’t just mean the rise of political polarization (although that’s how it often expresses itself), nor the rise of political violence (the domestic terrorism of the late 1960s and ’70s was far worse), nor even this country’s ancient black-white racial conflict (though its potency endures).
I mean a new and compounding combination of all these differences into two coherent tribes, eerily balanced in political power, fighting not just to advance their own side but to provoke, condemn, and defeat the other. 
I mean two tribes whose mutual incomprehension and loathing can drown out their love of country, each of whom scans current events almost entirely to see if they advance not so much their country’s interests but their own. I mean two tribes where one contains most racial minorities and the other is disproportionately white; where one tribe lives on the coasts and in the cities and the other is scattered across a rural and exurban expanse; where one tribe holds on to traditional faith and the other is increasingly contemptuous of religion altogether; where one is viscerally nationalist and the other’s outlook is increasingly global; where each dominates a major political party; and, most dangerously, where both are growing in intensity as they move further apart.
...Tribalism, it’s always worth remembering, is not one aspect of human experience. It’s the default human experience. It comes more naturally to us than any other way of life. For the overwhelming majority of our time on this planet, the tribe was the only form of human society.
...Tribalism only destabilizes a democracy when it calcifies into something bigger and more intense than our smaller, multiple loyalties; when it rivals our attachment to the nation as a whole; and when it turns rival tribes into enemies. And the most significant fact about American tribalism today is that all three of these characteristics now apply to our political parties, corrupting and even threatening our system of government.
...the world wars acted as great unifiers and integrators. Our political parties became less polarized by race, as the FDR Democrats managed to attract more black voters as well as ethnic and southern whites. By 1956, nearly 40 percent of black voters still backed the GOP. 
But we all know what happened next. The re-racialization of our parties began with Barry Goldwater’s presidential campaign in 1964, when the GOP lost almost all of the black vote. It accelerated under Nixon’s “southern strategy” in the wake of the civil-rights revolution. By Reagan’s reelection, the two parties began to cohere again into the Civil War pattern, and had simply swapped places.
...By the 2000 election, we were introduced to the red-blue map, though by then we could already recognize the two tribes it identified as they fought to a national draw. Choosing a president under those circumstances caused a constitutional crisis, one the Supreme Court resolved at the expense of losing much of its nonpartisan, nontribal authority.
...The greatest threat to a politician today therefore is less a candidate from the opposing party than a more ideologically extreme primary opponent. The incentives for cross-tribal compromise have been eviscerated, and those for tribal extremism reinforced.
...In the last decade, the gap in Christian identification between Democrats and Republicans has increased by 50 percent. In 2004, 44 percent of Latinos voted Republican for president; in 2016, 29 percent did. Forty-three percent of Asian-Americans voted Republican in 2004; in 2016, 29 percent did. Since 2004, the most populous urban counties have also swung decisively toward the Democrats, in both blue and red states, while rural counties have shifted sharply to the GOP. When three core components of a tribal identity — race, religion, and geography — define your political parties, you’re in serious trouble.
...There is no neutral presidency here, and so when a rank tribalist wins the office and governs almost entirely in the interests of the hardest core of his base, half the country understandably feels as if it were under siege. Our two-party, winner-take-all system only works when both parties are trying to appeal to the same constituencies on a variety of issues.
...To have one tribe dominate another is one thing; to have the tribe that gained fewer votes govern the rest — and be the head of state — is testing political stability. 
What you end up with is zero-sum politics, which drags the country either toward alternating administrations bent primarily on undoing everything their predecessors accomplished, or the kind of gridlock that has dominated national politics for the past seven years — or both. Slowly our political culture becomes one in which the two parties see themselves not as participating in a process of moving the country forward, sometimes by tilting to the right and sometimes to the left, as circumstances permit, alternating in power, compromising when in opposition, moderating when in government — but one where the goal is always the obliteration of the other party by securing a permanent majority, in an unending process of construction and demolition.
...One of the great attractions of tribalism is that you don’t actually have to think very much. All you need to know on any given subject is which side you’re on. You pick up signals from everyone around you, you slowly winnow your acquaintances to those who will reinforce your worldview, a tribal leader calls the shots, and everything slips into place. After a while, your immersion in tribal loyalty makes the activities of another tribe not just alien but close to incomprehensible.
...George Orwell famously defined this mind-set as identifying yourself with a movement, “placing it beyond good and evil and recognising no other duty than that of advancing its interests.” It’s typified, he noted, by self-contradiction and indifference to reality.
... Tribalism is not a static force. It feeds on itself. It appeals on a gut level and evokes emotions that are not easily controlled and usually spiral toward real conflict. And there is no sign that the deeper forces that have accelerated this — globalization, social atomization, secularization, media polarization, ever more multiculturalism — will weaken. The rhetorical extremes have already been pushed further than most of us thought possible only a couple of years ago, and the rival camps are even more hermetically sealed. In 2015, did any of us anticipate that neo-Nazis would be openly parading with torches on a college campus or that antifa activists would be proudly extolling violence as the only serious response to the Trump era?
Sullivan, of course, writes of America, a two-party state, yet one of the scourges of multi-party Canada is our first-past-the-post electoral system that reduces our government to a de facto two-party reality. In America, he notes, "half the country understandably feels as if it were under siege." What of Canada where it's far worse, where three out of five voters wind up not feeling, but knowing, they are under siege? What democracy is there then?

A party that gains a powerful majority based on receiving not quite two out of five votes, does that not challenge our political stability? That party doesn't govern with the consent of the electorate. It can only rule, its very legitimacy a pretence.

We are not America, not remotely, but we are drawing closer. We do have tribalists on both sides who depict anyone not of their own as evil or "ghastly" and agitate for their obliteration, securing a permanent majority.

I don't believe that democracy is secure in our House of Commons any longer. Ask yourself where would we be without the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and an intellectually honest Supreme Court of Canada? How many times did Harper attempt to flout the Charter to transform Canada, on the strength of another false majority, into something he boasted we would not recognize? It wasn't the Liberals who stopped Harper. It was our laws and our courts.

I hope these excerpts from Sullivan's essay will pique your interest enough to read the entire piece. It's well worth your time.  The op-eds of Yale profs Chau and Rubenfeld are in my view "must reads" and even the right wing perspective of Patrick Buchanan offers genuine food for thought.

Thursday, December 06, 2018

Say What? Tucker Carlson Said What?



Are the rats deserting the sinking ship?

FOX News rightwing shill, Tucker Carlson, has lowered the lumber on - wait for it - Donald J. Trump.

In a ranging interview with a Swiss newspaper, Die Weltwoche, Carlson  has slammed Trump saying he's just not "capable."

Asked if he thought Trump had kept his promises, Carlson replied with an abrupt "no."
His chief promises were that he would build the wall, de-fund planned parenthood, and repeal Obamacare, and he hasn't done any of those things. There are a lot of reasons for that, but since I finished writing the book, I've come to believe that Trump's role is not as a conventional president who promises to get certain things achieved to the Congress and then does. I don't think he's capable. I don't think he's capable of sustained focus. I don't think he understands the system. I don't think the Congress is on his side. I don't think his own agencies support him. He's not going to do that. 
I think Trump's role is to begin the conversation about what actually matters. We were not having any conversation about immigration before Trump arrived in Washington. People were bothered about it in different places in the country. It's a huge country, but that was not a staple of political debate at all. 
When asked what he thought Trump had achieved, another zinger.
Not much. Not much. Much less than he should have. I've come to believe he's not capable of it.
...you really have to understand how it works and you have to be very focused on getting it done, and he knows very little about the legislative process, hasn't learned anything, hasn't and surrounded himself with people that can get it done, hasn't done all the things you need to do so. It's mostly his fault that he hasn't achieved those things. I'm not in charge of Trump.
On America's emerging aristocracy.
I'm not against an aristocratic system. I'm not against a ruling class. I think that hierarchies are natural, people create them in every society. I just think the system that we have now the meritocracy, which is based really on our education system, on a small number of colleges has produced a ruling class that doesn't have the self-awareness that you need to be wise. I'm not arguing for populism, actually. I'm arguing against populism. Populism is what you get when your leaders fail. In a democracy, the population says this is terrible and they elect someone like Trump.
...The world of affluence and the high level of education and among-- I grew up in a town called La Jolla, California in the south. It was a very affluent town and then I moved as a kid to Georgetown here in Washington. I've been here my whole life. I've always lived around people who are wielding authority, around the ruling class, and it was only after the financial crisis of 08 that I noticed that something was really out of whack, because Washington didn't really feel the crisis. 
If you leave Washington and drive to say Pittsburgh, which is a manufacturing town about three and a half hours to the west, you drive through a series of little towns that are devastated. There are no car dealerships, there are no restaurants. There's nothing. They have not recovered. I remember driving out there one day, maybe eight or nine years ago and thinking, boy, this is a disaster. Rural America, America outside three or four cities is really falling apart. I thought if you're running the country, you should have a sense of that. I remember thinking to myself, nobody I know has any idea that this is happening an hour away. That's kind of strange since we're the capital city in charge of making policy for everybody else... Massive inequality does not work in a democracy... You become Venezuela.
On Alexandra Ocasio Cortez and her socialist cohort, Carlson said, "That's the future."

On the prospects of a second American revolution:
I don't think that we're anywhere near an outbreak of civil war, armed violence between two sides for a bunch of different reasons... Testosterone levels are so low and marijuana use is so high that I think the population is probably too ... What you don't have, prerequisite fall revolution, violent revolution, is a large group of young people who are comfortable with violence and we don't have that. Maybe that will change. I hope it doesn't. I don't want violence for violence. I appall violence, but I just don't see that happening. What I see happening most likely is a kind of gradual separation of the states. 
If you look at the polling on the subject, classically, traditionally, Americans had antique racial attitudes. If you say, “Would you be okay with your daughter marrying outside her race?” Most Americans, if they're being honest, would say, “no, I'm not okay with that. I'm not for that.” Now the polling shows people are much more comfortable with a child marrying someone of a different race than they are marrying someone of a different political persuasion. 
“I'd rather my daughter married someone who's Hispanic than liberal”, someone might say. That is one measure. There are many measures, but that's one measure of how politically divided we are and I just think that over time, people will self-segregate. It's a continental country. It's a very large piece of land and you could see where certain states just become very, very different. Like if you're Conservative, are you really going to live in California in 10 years? Probably not.
Personally, I would welcome a new, perhaps dual, political entity to the south. A separation of the states, red and blue. Most of our neighbours, including the Pacific coast and the important part of the Atlantic coast, would be much more like-minded than the America that now confronts us. While we're all in for a battering in the decades ahead, the Slave States, the south generally and the "flyover" states, a.k.a. the Heartland are in for a particularly arduous time. Let the Gullibillies have them much along the lines in Chuck Thompson's "Better Off Without 'Em."

Ford Threatens to Boycott First Ministers Meeting.


I guess he forgot to pack his long pants. Ontario's glorious premier, Doug Ford, has threatened to boycott tomorrow's first minister's meeting.

A Ford aide said, "No one should assume the premier of Ontario is prepared to spend his Friday sitting through a series of lectures from federal cabinet ministers."

The threat sent Trudeau aides scrambling across Montreal to track down a few gallons of poutine to soothe the savage premier.

If Lemmings Could Drive...



If lemmings could drive they would be a lot like us. They would still go over the cliff only in a little more style.

A report in The New York Times says we, mankind, are driving ourselves over a cliff.

Scientists described the quickening rate of carbon dioxide emissions in stark terms, comparing it to a “speeding freight train” and laying part of the blame on an unexpected surge in the appetite for oil as people around the world not only buy more cars but also drive them farther than in the past — more than offsetting any gains from the spread of electric vehicles. 
“We’ve seen oil use go up five years in a row,” said Rob Jackson, a professor of earth system science at Stanford and an author of one of two studies published Wednesday. “That’s really surprising.” 
Worldwide, carbon emissions are expected to increase by 2.7 percent in 2018, according to the new research, which was published by the Global Carbon Project, agroup of 100 scientists from more than 50 academic and research institutions and one of the few organizations to comprehensively examine global emissions numbers. Emissions rose 1.6 percent last year, the researchers said, ending a three-year plateau.

Reducing carbon emissions is central to stopping global warming. Three years ago nearly 200 nations hammered out the Paris Agreement with a goal of holding warming below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (two degrees Celsius) over preindustrial levels. 
Avoiding that threshold — already considered challenging — is viewed as a way to stave off some of the worst effects of climate change, like melting polar ice caps and rising sea levels. For the Paris goals to be met, scientists say, global emissions from power plants, factories, cars and trucks, as well as those from deforestation, would need to swiftly begin declining to zero.
I realize these posts are depressing. I know because I only post about a fraction of what I read and I find nothing rewarding in it. Yet we need more people spreading the word, letting others know - those that want to know - what's happening, where we're heading, what it means.

Imagine how the hundreds of scientists from 13 US government agencies that produced the latest National Climate Assessment, all 1,600 pages of it, reacted when their president dismissed it, saying "I don't believe it"?

It's no wonder why the burnout rate among climate scientists is so high.  You muster all the science, distill it into a report, issue a dire warning and then get heaped with scorn and derision. Suddenly that opening for a chemistry teacher in a backwater community college sounds irresistible.

Are we collectively working our way through the Kubler-Ross model of five stages of grief? Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. How can anyone, save those who refuse to take a glimpse at what's under the carpet, not be so affected?

Of course we have the global community earnestly toiling away in Katowice, Poland, to find some means of averting runaway global warming. Mr. Trudeau wants a $20 per ton carbon tax to curb our fossil fuel appetites. Some favour cap and trade. There's no real consensus.

What we rarely talk about is how we're going to put in place enough alternative clean energy to keep our economies ticking over without some sort of collapse.

Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology looked at that and concluded that, at the rate we're going, we should have an alternative clean energy world in just under 400 years.

Beyond the vexing combination of economic, political, and technical challenges is the basic problem of overwhelming scale. There is a massive amount that needs to be built, which will suck up an immense quantity of manpower, money, and materials. 
For starters, global energy consumption is likely to soar by around 30 percent in the next few decades as developing economies expand. (China alone needs to add the equivalent of the entire US power sector by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency.) To cut emissions fast enough and keep up with growth, the world will need to develop 10 to 30 terawatts of clean-energy capacity by 2050. On the high end that would mean constructing the equivalent of around 30,000 nuclear power plants—or producing and installing 120 billion 250-watt solar panels.
There’s simply little financial incentive for the energy industry to build at that scale and speed while it has tens of trillions of dollars of sunk costs in the existing system. 
“If you pay a billion dollars for a gigawatt of coal, you’re not going to be happy if you have to retire it in 10 years,” says Steven Davis, an associate professor in the Department of Earth System Science at the University of California, Irvine. 
It’s somewhere between difficult and impossible to see how any of that will change until there are strong enough government policies or big enough technology breakthroughs to override the economics.
Which brings us back to December, 2015 and the Paris climate summit. That was when the global community announced they would cut emissions sufficiently to hold global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. When he heard that, Potsdam Institute director, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, warned that to have any chance of meeting that 1.5C target would require nothing less than the "induced implosion" of the global fossil energy industry. Governments, i.e. petro-states, would have to euthanize their fossil energy giants.  He knew that Big Fossil would fight fang and claw, use their massive political clout, anything to keep growing - and they are. And here in Canada we keep subsidizing them to the tune of billions upon billions of dollars every year. What kind of message does that send the Oil Barons?

Washington State Says "No Deal" with Ford's Ontario



A merger was in the works between Ontario's Hydro One and Spokane, Washington based Avista Corp. That is until the state regulator caught a whiff of Doug Ford. Now the deal's off.
As the two party leaders intent on knocking Kathleen Wynne out of the premier’s office this year talked about their plans for Hydro One, regulators in Washington were watching and listening. 
And they were becoming increasingly concerned that a merger between Hydro One and Spokane-based Avista Corp. would always be at risk of political interference. This risk ultimately was at the heart of their decision Wednesday to deny Hydro One’s bid to buy Avista, putting an end to a deal that was more than a year in the making.
Washington has enough problems with one Donald Trump. The last thing they were looking for was a Trump Mini-Me from Toronto.
Mayo Schmidt, Hydro One's CEO at the time, told commissioners on April 10, 2018 that concerns about the provincial government's role were not "valid". 
“The province’s role is limited to being Hydro One’s largest shareholder,” he said, adding, “Hydro One is not any more vulnerable to political change than any other investor-owned utility in Canada, or the United States for that matter.” 
But the commissioners, who regulate private energy companies in Washington state, appeared to have their doubts, announcing instead that they would torpedo the deal.
“The reassurances Mr. Schmidt offered in his testimony may have been given sincerely at the time it was filed but they turned out to be materially incorrect,” the commissioners wrote in their order this week.