Friday, February 25, 2011

Toronto Star Calls It Harper by 13 Points.

The oh-so Liberal Toronto Star brings sad tidings.  The paper's pollsters quizzed 6,000 Canadians and the results - Harper 39%, Ignatieff 26%, Layton 18%.

The Libs, it seems, keep chasing things that don't matter to the people who do - the voters.   The Oda scandal seems to be a total yawner with the electorate.

The 13 point spread holds up in Ontario where the Conservatives garnered a depressing yet impressive 43% to just 30% for the Libs.   The only demo where the Libs held a lead was with university-educated voters.   Unfortunately, in these days of universal suffrage, that doesn't mean very much at all.

In gender, Harper is 20 points ahead of Iggy with men, 44-24% and the Cons lead the women's vote 34% to 28%.

15 comments:

Gordie_Canuk said...

Harper panders to the lowest common denominator, Homer Simpson would definitely vote CPC...no surprise our PM is less popular with those more educated.

The Mound of Sound said...

Of course he does Gordie. That said, it is the obligation of every party that wants to form a government to reach all segments of the electorate with a message that resonates with them.

Unfortunately the LOL has been hapless at truly taking the fight to the PM. Much too often he seems to be reading off the same page.

The two gravest challenges facing this country in this century will be climate change and income inequality. The first will require a great collective will and the second will defeat any hope of social cohesiveness.

Liberals tend to treat the major issues of the day as provoking socialist responses and so they ignore them. Instead of shaping their policies to the solutions, they chose to fall back on obsolete approaches and simply ignore anything that doesn't fit.

Mr. Ignatieff had better prove himself to be an electoral Lazarus or he may just do what even Dion didn't - hand Harper a majority.

Anonymous said...

But the Libs TRIED to make climate change the centerpiece of their last campaign, and most Canadians balked at it: just as we are with democracy in the oil dictatorships: we might pay lip-service to it, but we sure don't want it to cost us anything. Similarly with them getting roasted for even contemplating any costly new or overhauled social programs. So what would you have them do, commit Harakiri by running to the left of the NDP?

Anonymous said...

Most of this gap is due to all the advertising the past month -- both the fully taxpayer funded EAP ones & the taxpayer-subsidized political attack ads & the lingering EAP project signs. It's like a 'Rocky' fight -- we take a pounding for the first few rounds without landing a punch. You want to help? Get everyone you know to donate to the party so they can fight back with real ads of their own.

Anonymous said...

Ignatieff just isn't able to capitalize on the Conservative's failings for more than a few days. He couldn't do it with the prorogation or the Afghan documents and he can't do it with Oda.

ck said...

I agree with Anonymous @8:41PM, Climate change doesn't resonate with most Canadians. In fact, I think most prefer to believe the climate change deniers-makes them feel less guilty in some cases. Fact is, most who say they care for the environment are hypocritical-they care for it in theory, until it is suggested they either must sacrifice something or pay something. For Gawd's sake, most people balk at the idea of reusable bags or paying 5cents for plastic bag.

Dion tried to sell a green shift, it failed miserably.

On a radio show, they were talking about electric cars with a youth panel. One of the girls said, "I really love the environment, but I'll never buy an electric car or even a hybrid; I mean, what's in it for me? where are my tax credits?" Sadly, most would share her mentality.

As for anonymous @9:21Pm: The reason he couldn't capitalize on Prorogation is because of the Canadian electorate, themselves, and their love of all things shiny or disasters to distract them. Harper got lucky--timing once again.

That earthquake in Haiti was the perfect crisis for Harper. If the electorate weren't so angry with prorogation, or if he hadn't prorogued, would he have been as busy trying to play humanitarian in Haiti and making sure he didn't miss a Photo op? Of course not! After all, where was he with other disasters that happened in the world.

Likewise, if the earthquake in Haiti wasn't happening to distract the media and the electorate, prorogation probably would've had more traction.

Then, of course, came the Olympics; "Own the Podium!" All those big shiny medals! the gold in men's hockey. Enough to have brought Harper's polling numbers close to majority territory--all had been forgiven.

All that to say that it really doesn't take much to forgive Harper these days.

As for Afghan documents; please! You saw the demographics! As Gordie points out earlier, it's the Archie Bunkers who are ruling the day. Let's remember what kind of bigot Archie Bunker was. Now think of an electorate full of Archie Bunkers. Truth is Afghan detainee documents are terrible issue to go to the polls with for the opposition. Most believe the Taliban are responsible for 9/11 in providing training grounds for Al-Qaeda; most, even Liberal supporters and probably some NDP supporters as well, have no sympathy for "Taliban thugs who throw acid on girls' faces".

On the other hand, most tend to hold grudges against the Liberals, well, forever. ADSCAM stubbornly remains, but Harpercon transgressions are not only easily forgiven, but there is a push to make us not talk about them; to give them a free pass.

If truth be told; If Oda were a Liberal, the Harpercon cheerleaders would be screaming for her head on a silver platter as would the electorate. If the Harpercons were responsible for an ADSCAM type of scandal, it would be forgiven in short order without even an apology.

After my long winded comment. Canadians have indeed shifted further to the right.

Anonymous said...

If only the Liberals had a leader....

The Mound of Sound said...

@ Anon 8:47, there's no doubt that Harper's ads have hurt the Libs but that merely shows how vulnerable the IgLibs will be in a campaign. Donate money, are you serious? Is some ad agency to do the fighting the IgLibs have dodged these past two years?

I won't raise money for Ignatieff because I won't vote for him. The LPC has reeled from enough disasters lately, it doesn't need to perpetuate them with the Harvard school boy. He's simply unfit to lead the country. Don't give me the "Harper's Worse" refrain. I know that but that doesn't mean Ignatieff deserves my support.

The Mound of Sound said...

One more point - on climate change.

Do you think it's real? Do you think it has gotten worse since 2008? Do you think it poses a genuine threat to Canada and future generations of Canadians? If you do, that puts an end to all this pathetic IgLib bullshit about how Dion tried that and it didn't work.

CK, you need to read a little more. A study this week found a solid majority of Americans accept the reality of climate change and a far greater majority of Canadians are like-minded. Don't bury that reality under Dion's ineptitude. And the IgLibs wonder why they're not reaching the voting public.

Dion screwed up his handling of carbon tax policy, not the policy itself. He tried to launch an initiative from the opposition benches that could only be accomplished by a sitting government. Dion had neither the money nor the resources essential to the task. Worse yet, he allowed Harper and Layton to "expose" the Green Shift before he was even prepared to unveil it. They got to write the narrative of the policy and they did it with wicked effectiveness.

Iggy has dismissed carbon taxation, which Australia is now implementing, as having been settled in 2008. He termed that election a referendum on it. What an odious remark from a guy who has shown himself a world class cringer.

Iggy didn't even have to think his way through this. All he needed to do was follow everything Britain's Labour government did these past two years. Their environmental initiative was about the only thing that kept Labour from being massacred in the last election.

Curiously, none of Ignatieff's defenders has even mentioned the income inequality problem and their leader's utter indifference to it.

Sorry, but Dion and Ignatieff have made one point - no more schoolboys. They don't have what it takes to lead a party much less win over an electorate.

Anonymous said...

whatever. You want to vent, Mound, fine, but seems to me the Libs are doing exactly what you're now conceding Dion should have done: keep the more radical (to the conservatives & the media) ideas close to their vest until AFTER they're elected with a majority, and then introduce them.

And now it sounds like you want someone who's both a progressive & a deceiving ruthless bully like Harper to be leader, and are complaining bitterly because no one fits that self-contradictory bill.

The Mound of Sound said...

What I'm suggesting Anon is that Dion ought to have understood the role of an opposition leader. He didn't which allowed Harper to turn the election into a referendum on Dion. Ignatieff, too, has been a hapless opposition leader. The public has taken the measure of him and decided they'll take their chances with Harper. An opposition leader's prime directive is to connect with the electorate and win their confidence. Ignatieff has utterly failed.

Anonymous said...

I really don't understand Iggliots....
When Iggy was placed as the liberal leader via back-room machinations instead of forging ahead with a Liberal coalition, I knew it was the end of the Liberal party...

Liberals have correctly identified that Harper is a horrible PM but they wonder why they are not higher in the polls... The answer is simple, the Liberal apparatus... from the inept Rocci (who has departed) to Iggy himself. I have never seen a politician squander so many opportunities.

I have never seen so many enablers of mediocrity as the present batch of Liberal supporters.

Your "leader" is a lame duck that not only has failed as a leader, he's brought the Liberals closer to Harper policies...

Anonymous said...

well, screw that: the people like me who are commenting here & in papers aren't 'iggliots' -- we're not backroom people, we didn't choose him, we're mostly not even members: we're just voters who may've sat the 2006 &/or 2008 elections out, but want the CPC out ASAP, & see the LPC as the only chance of that -- whose chances would be lower if they had to throw another leader overboard so soon. And you're not helping any by crying over spilt milk. Get on or get out; why be an identifiably Lib blogger at all if you're just gonna sabotage.

The Mound of Sound said...

Anon, I won't vote "for" a party in order to vote against another party. I've watched how that has played out in my own British Columbia for decades.

I have been voting since PET first led the Libs into a general election. I've voted Liberal in every election since then. At times I've had to hold my nose to vote but I have always shown up to the polls.

This time it's different. I don't support the supposed leader nor do I find much to support in the now right of centre party.

If a Harper majority is truly what it takes for the Libs to emerge from their torpor then so be it. I want a properly led LPC that embraces its roots in progressive liberalism. Just being a tad to the left of Harper doesn't mean you're Liberal, it means you're hedging your bets to play Conservative-Lite. The worst part is - it's not working.

Liberal bloggers spend a great deal of time focusing on the failures of Stephen Harper. I don't need somebody to tell me he's a shit. But those bloggers are preaching to the choir, wasting their bandwidth.

What they should, but won't, focus on is a brutally honest discussion of what's wrong with their party, the one they can change for the benefit of the party and our country. There are serious problems in the LPC under the current administration and that's undeniable from poll after poll after poll. That won't be remedied by bitching at Harper or by voting Liberal.

Today's Liberal Party is not the party of Laurier, Pearson and Trudeau. It's utter and directionless crap.

Anonymous said...

Get on or get out; why be an identifiably Lib blogger at all if you're just gonna sabotage.
The lib party has done a great job at sabotaging itself. And that is the problem.

If you want to vote for a bunch of hapless sods, to be it.