Thursday, February 03, 2011

If You Want to See What Collapse Looks Like - Check Out Central Asia

They're names we've become vaguely aware of since our troops' arrival in Afghanistan - Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.  Now, the International Crisis Group warns, the "Stans" are literally falling apart and are on the verge of descending into chaos.

The report paints a picture of something straight out of  a post-apocalyptic movie.

Almost two decades after independence, Central Asian countries have nearly run down the schools, clinics, hospitals, roads and power plants built in Soviet times. The region is entering a period when systemic collapse of infrastructure for education, healthcare, transportation and energy is becoming increasingly likely. The risk is particularly high in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. 

In five to ten years there will be no teachers to lead classes, no doctors to treat the sick and the absence of electricity will become a norm”, says Paul Quinn-Judge, Crisis Group’s Central Asia Project Director. “The time for reform is running out. Continuing declines in the provision of services will exacerbate social tensions in an already volatile region. This in turn could well heighten the potential for future conflict”.


As part of the Soviet Union, the five countries were tightly woven into a single system. These interdependencies have proven difficult to unravel, and have produced serious imbalances. During the Soviet era, the countries were obliged to work together. Now they no longer have to get along, and usually do not, especially as far as energy is concerned. The quality of education and healthcare has plummeted with the end of the social safety net. In some countries, notably Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, these sectors have almost ceased to exist.

This is fertile soil for radicalism, particularly  fundamentalist Islamism.  The Crisis Group goes on to note that the only effective solutions are unacceptable to Central Asia's ruling elites.

...These amount to nothing less than a total repudiation of regional leaders’ values and behaviour. They would need to purge their governments of top-to-bottom systemic corruption; cease using their countries’ resources as a source of fabulous wealth for themselves and their families; and create a meritocracy with decent pay that would free officials from the need to depend on corruption to make ends meet. All these changes are so far from current realities that foreign governments and donors may dismiss them as hopelessly idealistic. Yet without organised change from above, there is a growing risk of chaotic change from below. 

If this description sounds eerily apt to a place like Afghanistan, that's because it is.   Every one of these obstacles that undermine progress and lead to a return to Dark Age brutality and poverty continue to spread through Afghanistan and we've had a decade to prove there isn't much that we can or are willing to do to change any of it.

No comments: