If we've learned one thing about Egypt it's that usually nothing is at it seems. Hosni Mubarak has resigned. Of itself that means very little. The important thing is that he didn't just hand the reins to his vice president, Suleiman. He transferred power to the Egyptian military. It is what it is but I'm guessing what it's not is constitutional. Presumably Egypt has some fixed provisions for succession in the event the chief executive becomes incapacitated. In other words, Mubarak's resignation would automatically initiate his succession. But in this case Hosni seems to have toppled his own government, sort of staged his own coup as it were.
This may well be the end of Mubarak's National Democratic Party. That would be a good thing, perhaps even essential to the evolution of democracy in Egypt. If the country is to go forward it needs a clean break between the military and civilian institutions, something that was never thought necessary in the entire, post-Farouk era. Now it will be up to the military to create a venue for organization of genuine political parties and the election of Egypt's first democracy.
Tunisia obviously lit Egypt's fuse but the toppling of Egypt's regime could well spill over into Yemen, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and possibly even Iran. This poses no end of uncertainty and problems for the West and for Israel. Nothing scares us more than when we can't buy our allies.
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