Austerity's Silver Lining - Arms Race Update

A couple of headlines this morning got me thinking that the West's embrace of austerity might not be all bad.  Of course it's probably just wishful thinking.

The first article concerns a refreshingly nuanced and balanced lecture delivered by former US ambassador to Russia, Jack Matlock.

In a lecture at King's College London, Jack Matlock said that the crisis in Ukraine is increasingly comparable to what he saw during his time as ambassador during the turbulent end of the Cold War. "We see increasingly implicit military confrontations and I'm beginning to wonder, could this result in something which is almost the functional equivalent of the Cold War," he said.

According to Matlock, an explanation for the crisis in Ukraine and worsening relationship between Russia and the West does not simply lie with the actions of Russian President, Vladimir Putin.

"Is it just a matter of Russia violating international norms and law, is there more to this story? There is no question that Russia has violated international law, that the way they conducted the referendum of the Crimea and then annexed it, was a violation of a number of agreements.

"However, all of us should recognise that as brutal and aggressive as Russian policy is, ultimately it is prompted by…feeling…that US and West in general…are trying to encircle and strangle them," he said.

Following a decision made at the recent G7 summit to continue imposing sanctions on Russia, and the steadily increasing popularity within Russia of its President, Matlock argues that the West needs to reconsider its own policies to "bring the results that we want."

The second headline concerns the newly minted NATO sec-gen Jens Stoltenberg claiming that the alliance will not get dragged into an arms race with Moscow.  I suspect Stoltenberg's comforting assurance is really code for the obvious.  With most of the peoples of the Western nations already under the heel of brutal austerity policies, their governing classes are keenly aware of what might befall them should they try to pump up their defence spending to 3 or 4% GDP to play the arms race game with Vlad Putin.  After all, you can't have defence and the ultra low, corporate tax cuts demanded by your corporate masters.

A silver lining?  Maybe, maybe not.  Well, we're plenty ready to sacrifice the environment and our grandkids future to the whims of corporatism.  Surely defence spending is a paltry bauble in the greater scheme of commercial morality.

Canada Advances to Top Tier Warmongering. Congratulations All.

Also Available in Green

Did you hear the news?  Pakistan has inked a deal to buy eight modern Chinese submarines.  Pakistan, yeah.  And the Pakistan navy is looking at developing nuclear warheads for the torpedoes and cruise missiles those subs carry.  What do you think of that?  Does it evoke any sort of visceral reaction in you? I wouldn't bet on it.

Those familiar with this blog know that I devote some time monitoring arms races underway in many corners of the world but especially in the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia and, of course, Russia and Eastern Europe.  They're all little beehives of martial adventurism and incipient mass mayhem.

Interesting piece in today's Guardian about how the West's mega-billion dollar annual arms sales to our 'Middle Eastern allies' (snicker, snicker) is destabilizing the region.  On this score even Canada gets special mention.


The Middle East is plunging deeper into an arms race, with an estimated $18bn expected to be spent on weapons this year, a development that experts warn is fuelling serious tension and conflict in the region.

Given the unprecedented levels of weapons sales by the west (including the US, Canada and the UK) to the mainly Sunni Gulf states, Vladimir Putin’s decision last week to allow the controversial delivery of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran – voluntarily blocked by Russia since 2010 – seems likely to further accelerate the proliferation.

That will see agreed arms sales to the top five purchasers in the region - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Egypt and Iraq – surge this year to more than $18bn, up from $12bn last year. Among the systems being purchased are jet fighters, missiles, armoured vehicles, drones and helicopters.

...“It’s crazy,” says Ben Moores, author of IHS Jane’s annual report on arms buying trends. “The one Canadian deal alone – to supply Saudi Arabia with light armoured vehicles – will account for 20% of the military vehicles sold globally in years covered by the contract. And this is just the thin edge of the wedge. Saudi has booked enough arms imports in 24 months for them to be worth $10bn a year.”

...as Tobias Borck of the Royal United Services Institute points out, states in the Middle East are now more prepared to use the weapons they are buying.

“[The] Saudi-led military operations in Yemen [are] the latest manifestation of Arab interventionism, a trend that has been gaining momentum in the Middle East since the uprisings of the Arab spring,” he says. “Middle Eastern countries appear to be increasingly willing to use their armed forces to protect and pursue their interests in crisis zones across the region.”

Referring to the inconsistent approach by key security council members towards arms control in the region, he adds: “There are a lot of different streams feeding into this arms race.

“On Syria’s chemical weapons and the Iranian nuclear programme the two issues were ringfenced as pure arms control questions. When it comes to how we perceive our arms sales – whether they are British or US or whatever – it tends to be seen as a domestic economic issue – protecting our factories.

“That neglects the regional political dimensions, with arms sales taking place with a lack of regard for that context and without long-term strategic awareness.”

...Omar Ashour, an expert on Middle East security issues at Exeter University, adds another caution, this time over the intentions of the new Saudi-led Arab coalition, warning that its interventions are unlikely to contribute to stability.

...Speaking to the Guardian last week, he added: “On top of that, the increases in arms sales are bound to be extremely destabilising. At the moment most of the interventions have been against softer targets – Saudi Arabia targeting guerrillas in Yemen; Egypt against Bedouin in Sinai; or strikes against ragtag armies in Libya.

“But if the ‘soft’ keeps being hit hard they won’t remain soft. They will find their own patrons and proxies and hit back and it will lead to a vicious cycle.”

Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at Sipri, which maintains a database tracking arms contracts, raises another concern. “Something that doesn’t get mentioned is the complete lack of interest in arms control among the countries in region. It is not in the minds of leaders and decision-makers except for the need to arm to defeat any potential opponent.

“There is already instability in the region on several levels. You have instability in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. There is instability between Iran and the Gulf states. What is important now is how the massive expansion of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar will be seen as posing a clear threat to Iran.”

Borck adds a final warning: “If you are going for an ever-bigger hammer, then the more desperate you are to make every problem a nail.”

In summary, Stephen Harper just inked a massive deal to perpetuate the Middle East conflicts and ensure that the region remains destabilized for years, possibly decades to come.  Yet, at the very same time, we're over there bombing one bunch of bad actors in order to restore stability to the region.  Neat trick, eh? What do we have in mind for a third act?  It should be pretty exciting for laid back Canada.

While I'm on the topic of warmongering and this insane global arms bazaar, I thought I'd share with you an investment analysis that arrived in my inbox yesterday concerning industry giant, Lockheed Martin.  The title speaks volumes:

"Lockheed Martin: Well-Positioned To Take Advantage Of Global Destabilization"

You can't make this stuff up:

With the huge ramp up in geopolitical tensions and global conflict, the international markets are becoming much more relevant for Lockheed Martin. As such, Lockheed Martin's decision to put increasing emphasis on international expansion is extremely smart. The company even plans to have its international segment account for at least one-quarter of its total sales. Given how much worse geopolitical tensions and conflicts have gotten in the last few quarters, Lockheed Martin will very likely be able to follow through on its international ambitions.

The Middle East, in particular, represents huge opportunities for Lockheed Martin. With conflicts in the Middle East escalating, the company's sales to the region will surely constitute a huge portion of its international business segment. Just recently, another Middle Eastern conflict emerged in the form of a rapidly destabilizing Yemem. The Yemen situation has gotten so bad that Saudi Arabia is now basically in a proxy war against Iran. Given Lockheed Martin's somewhat close relationship with Saudi Arabia, this conflict should present the company with plenty of new opportunities. In fact, CEO Marillyn Hewson met with several senior Saudi Arabian leaders to discuss new business opportunities.

The Middle East is just one of many promising international markets for Lockheed Martin. From increasing missile defense system sales in conflict zones such as Eastern Europe (e.g. MEADs sales to Ukraine) to jet deals in the APAC region(e.g. F-35 sales to South Korea), Lockheed Martin is building a formidable international presence. As international tensions/conflicts are only getting worse, Lockheed Martin has an opportune chance to cement its global presence.

Maybe Harper should dispatch Old Leatherback, Joe Oliver, over to the ME as Canada's ambassador for warmongering.  This is just getting started and there's countless billions to be had with the race going to the quickest.

What Are We Doing Flooding this Place With Arms?

Saudi Arabia has now displaced India to become the largest armaments importer in the world.  Saudi imports are reported to have shot up an alarming 54% over just the past year.

Among the beneficiaries of the House of Saud's largesse is Canada, having inked a contract to sell nearly $15-billion worth of light armoured fighting vehicles to the fanatical Sunni Muslim kingdom.

Saudi Arabia overtook India to become the world's biggest weapons importer in 2014, a year when global defence trade rose for the sixth straight year to a record $64.4 billion, research company IHS said on Sunday.

The growth in supplies was due to expanding demand from emerging economies for military aircraft and rising tensions in the Middle East and Asia Pacific, IHS, a provider of global market and economic information, said.

The United States remained the top defence exporter in 2014, ahead of Russia, France, Britain and Germany, a top-five ranking unchanged from 2013, IHS said in an annual defence trade report.

"Growth in Saudi Arabia has been dramatic and, based on previous orders, these numbers are not going to slow down,” an IHS statement quoted its senior defence analyst Ben Moores as saying.

Saudi imports rose 54 percent between 2013 and 2014, and based on planned deliveries imports will grow 52 percent to $9.8 billion in 2015, IHS said, without stating the 2014 sales.

This raises many questions.  Exactly what do the Saudi Princes have in mind for all this deathware?  Presumably they didn't order the stuff without some idea for how they would use it.  The Saudi army's only significant operations since Saddam was driven out of Kuwait was democracy suppression in the Gulf States and they can easily stamp out nascent democracy threats with the stuff they already have to hand.

My guess?  They're preparing for an all-out religious war on Iran, a Sunni v. Shiite death match.  If that sounds preposterous, it shouldn't.  It's the very thing that Saudi prince Bandar bin Sultan described to former MI6 chief, Sir Richard Dearlove. 

Some time before 9/11, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, once the powerful Saudi ambassador in Washington and head of Saudi intelligence until a few months ago, had a revealing and ominous conversation with the head of the British Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, Sir Richard Dearlove. Prince Bandar told him: "The time is not far off in the Middle East, Richard, when it will be literally 'God help the Shia'. More than a billion Sunnis have simply had enough of them."

The article from The Independent is vital to understanding what is really going on beneath the surface in the Middle East and Persia.  Our national narrative, at least in Canada and the US, holds Iran to be the evil one, the state sponsor of terrorism while, in reality, it's Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Gulf States that made the attacks of 9/11, the US embassy bombings, the bombing of the USS Cole, not to mention al Qaeda and ISIS possible.  It's these same people we're arming to the teeth with the latest in high-tech deathware.

It's more than passing curious how readily we denounce Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism and plaster it with sanctions but never utter a peep or raise an accusatory finger to the ultimate state sponsor of terrorism, Saudi Arabia. 

Then we assume that Iran, under this enormous existential threat from the Saudis, is seeking a nuclear weapon to attack Israel.  As Gwynne Dyer points out, when Iran has been actively working on enriching uranium, it has been when it felt threatened by Saddam's nuclear weapon programme or Pakistan's.  In other words, Tehran's interest in nuclear weapons has been primarily defensive.  They act when they perceive an existential threat - to Iran, to themselves.  And now, as we're flooding the country that has vowed to eliminate Shiite Islam with weapons that, by their numbers, defy any other explanation than war against Iran, we insist that Iran give up the means to defend itself.  

Asia's Dreadnoughts

Dreadnoughts.  The first modern battleship - big guns and steam turbine power. Prior to WWI these new super-warships triggered a major naval arms race between Britain and Germany.

Something similar is underway today across Asia and the South Pacific only this time its a naval arms race focused on submarine superiority.  We don't hear much about it but just about every player from the Sea of Japan, the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean and the south/central Pacific is rapidly rearming with submarines.

Even the city state of Singapore has a fleet of six subs, some of which are soon to be replaced with the latest and greatest.  Australia is wrestling with plans to replace its Collins-class boats with up to a dozen new subs.  Vietnam is beginning to deploy new Russian boats.  The Philippines is establishing its own submarine service.  Thailand is following suit.  India, seeking to establish a Blue Water navy has a major submarine programme that includes the development of an indigenous nuclear missile sub.  Pakistan is looking to buy new subs from China.  Japan may amend its constitution to allow the export of new technology submarines to potential customers like Australia.

What's driving all the panic for U-boats is, of course, China and its rapidly expanding naval force.  Now even the US Navy is expressing concerns about the size and capability of China's submarine force.

China now has a larger submarine fleet than that United States, a U.S. admiral said on Wednesday. Speaking to the House Armed Service Committee’s Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee (which oversees the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps), Vice Admiral Joseph Mulloy said that China is building some “fairly amazing submarines,” both diesel- and nuclear-powered. Mulloy is the deputy chief of naval operations for capabilities and resources.

Mulloy told the subcommittee that China is “out experimenting and looking at operating and clearly want[s] to be in this world of advanced submarines.” He also noted that China is increasing the geographical area of deployment for its subs, as well as the length of time per deployment.

...Nuclear-power submarines are a particular area of emphasis as China looks to improve its ability to conduct military operations outside its own near seas. China is continuing to produce Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), and is expected to introduce new models over the next decade (the Type 096 SSBN and Type 095 guided-missile attack submarine or SSGN). For now, however, the DoD reports that diesel-powered subs are still “mainstay of the Chinese submarine force.”


Right now the leading edge in submarine technology is with the ultra-quiet, conventional submarine with AIP or air-independent propulsion. These non-nuclear boats can operate underwater for up to two-weeks at a stretch. The big suppliers are Germany, France, Sweden and, perhaps soon, Japan. The hapless subs Canada operates do no have AIP and are completely outclassed, even when they are fit for duty.

The Royal Canadian Navy did establish a record today.  For the first time since they acquired their second-hand subs from the Brits, three out of the four were operational today.  Tomorrow could be another matter.  No one knows.

Is There a Nuclear War in Your Future?

Maybe that's why Sideshow Steve went on the down low to get F-35s in RCAF hangars as soon as possible.

Could the planet be headed for the first (and last) nuclear world war?  Noam Chomsky thinks it's a real possibility.  (Hint: he's right).

“It’s come ominously close several times in the past, dramatically close,” he said. “It could happen again, but not planned, but just by the accidental interactions that take place — that has almost happened.”

“It’s worth remembering that just one century ago, the First World War broke out through a series of such accidental interchanges. The First World War was horrifying enough, but the current reenactment of it means the end of the human race.”

“There have been many cases,” Chomsky continued, “not that serious, but pretty close, where human intervention with a few-minutes choice has prevented a nuclear war. You can’t guarantee that’s going to continue. It may not be a high probability each time, but when you play a game like that, with low probability risks of disaster over and over again, you’re going to lose.”

“And now, especially in the crisis over Ukraine, and so-called missile-defense systems near the borders of Russia, it’s a threatening situation.”

We know that Russia's current rearmament programme is nuclear weapon oriented.  A new intercontinental range missile, a new intermediate range missile, a new (probably stealthy) strategic bomber, a new nuclear missile sub. America already deploys the nuclear capable, B-2 stealth bomber and the F-35 is or will be nuclear-weapon capable.  The US is also working on a new strategic bomber.

So, yes, we are upping the nuclear ante even as Cold War II continues to set in. Ain't life grand?  I'm sure a cupboard/broom closet full of nukes would have a powerful appeal to a smug prick megalomaniac like this:

Arms Race Update - Turkey Buys Air Defence System from China

Turkey, NATO's sole member from the Muslim world, has ordered a new, air defence system - from China.

A government committee chaired by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prime minister, decided this week to proceed with buying the long-range anti-aircraft and ballistic missile system from the state-owned China Precision Machinery Import-Export Corporation, rejecting rivals bids from western groups. This was despite concerns that the new technology might not work with other Nato systems.

 

Turkish officials said the decision was made on technical and price grounds, an argument echoed by several analysts who say Ankara is keen to get hold of new technology that the US is reluctant to share. Nevertheless, the move comes amid increasing strains with some of Turkey’s allies.

Turkey is on something of a technological rampage.  It's looking to break into the big leagues of military technology by developing a stealth fighter, a satellite launch vehicle, early warning satellites, a long-range missile and even a small aircraft carrier.

The missile system is believed to be a Chinese copy of the Russian S-300.

 

The HongQi-9/FD-2000 reportedly combines elements "borrowed" from Russia's S-300 and America's MIM-104 Patriot.

 

Arms Race Update - There Goes the Neighbourhood

Singapore's RSS Swordsman

When Obama announced America's military "pivot" out of the Middle East and into Asia-Pacific, it was bound to shake up the neighbourhood - that plus China's rapid military expansion that the pivot is intended to counter.

When China and the U.S. get testy it's guaranteed to stir up the neighbourhood and so it has.  Aviation Week reports that America's "partners" - Australia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand - are unlocking their treasuries and going on an armaments buying spree.  For the five-year period of 2013 to 2018, the partners are expected to spend $1.4-trillion on military research and procurement.  That's a 55% jump from the $919-billion spent in the previous five years which, of itself, was far from shabby.

A lot of the spending will be on ships.  The partners are expected to add 263 surface vessels and another 31 submarines atop the substantial number of submarines already acquired over the past five years.

Analysts recognize that China is on edge and already feeling encircled.  All those new ships and subs to be deployed by the partners won't do much to lessen Beijing's concerns.

If you're looking for perspective, consider this.   Even the city-state of Singapore, population 5.3-million, all 710 sq. kms. of it,  has a navy that operates six modern submarines.   Canada, with the longest coastline in the world, has four aging and clapped-out ex-British subs, two of which might actually be able to leave the dock under their own power.

Arms Race Update - Indian Navy to South China Sea

India has served notice that its navy is ready to sail into the South China Sea to protect the country's oil interests there.

Indian Navy Chief Admiral D.K Joshi said that, while India was not a territorial claimant in the South China Sea, it was prepared to act, if necessary, to protect its maritime and economic interests in the region.

"When the requirement is there, for example, in situations where our country's interests are involved, for example ONGC ... we will be required to go there and we are prepared for that," Joshi told a news conference.

"Now, are we preparing for it? Are we having exercises of that nature? The short answer is yes," he said.

 ...India has sparred diplomatically with China in the past over its gas and oil exploration block off the coast of Vietnam.

Any display of naval assertiveness by India in the South China Sea would likely fuel concern that the navies of the two rapidly growing Asian giants could be on a collision course as they seek to protect trade routes and lock in the supply of coal, minerals and other raw material from foreign sources.

Admiral Joshi described the modernization of China's navy as "truly impressive" and a source of major concern for India.

Arms Race Update - China Gets Into Naval Air Game

It's still a long way off from rivaling America's 11-carrier battle groups but China has demonstrated a successful landing and takeoff from its refurbished Ukranian aircraft carrier, the Liaoning.

The Chinese-built carrier jet, a Sukhoi 27 knock-off, comes complete with folding wings and folding horizontal tailplanes.

Observers believe the Liaoning is a training ship and that China has its own, indigenous aircraft carriers under construction.

Arms Race Update - Russian Lasers in Space

The Americans spent about 16-years trying to perfect an aerial laser system capable of taking down income ballistic missiles.   Russia is now pursuing what it calls space laser counter-measures.

The Russians are after a more modest target.   Instead of a laser missile shield, their initial effort is, "making inoperable adversary space vehicles’ sensors and optical electronic systems by directed laser beam impulse."

That seems to indicate that the Russians want to target American communications, command & control and spy orbital systems.    Instead of blowing them up with anti-satellite missiles, which creates a host of problems, the Russian approach is to fry them - render them deaf, mute and blind.

Arms Race Update - American Hegemony in Peril in East Asia, China and India Showdown

"The PLA seeks the capability to deter Taiwan independence and influence Taiwan to settle the dispute on Beijing’s terms. In pursuit of this objective, Beijing is developing capabilities intended to deter, delay, or deny possible U.S. support for the island in the event of conflict. The balance of cross-Strait military forces and capabilities continues to shift in the mainland’s favor."

That was the essence of a report entitled "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China, 2011" delivered by the Pentagon to the US Congress.   It could more properly be titled, "Threats to American Hegemony in East Asia."

The 54-page report is full of gems.  Great attention is paid to the expansion of China's air and naval forces required to dominate and potentially repel American forces from Chinese territorial seas.  The Pentagon is used to maintaining superiority of naval and air forces right up to China's territorial limits and the report almost winces at the thought of that being forever lost.

The paper focuses on the development of Chinese naval air power.  The country is just finishing the refit of a Russian-built carrier the Chinese picked up from Ukraine.  The report notes that China is expected to begin building its own carrier fleet very soon.

America isn't the only potential threat China faces.   The Indian Navy, the world's fifth largest, is also rapidly bulking up, especially its Eastern Command.   India is positioning an aircraft carrier, all of its guided missile destroyers, and its submarine fleet including the three nuclear boats soon to be in service.   The Chinese navy is predicted to establish a permanent presence in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean even as the Indian navy has a stated goal of establishing maritime supremacy as far east as the Kurile Islands, effectively blanketing China's entire coastline.  See where this is heading?

Arms Race Update - India Urged to Deploy ICBMs

The head of India's Air Force is urging his country to build and deploy intercontinental ballistic missiles of up to 10,000 km. range.  Air Chief Marshal P.V. Naik says getting the ability to nuke distant lands is part of coming of age for an emerging economic superpower.

"India needs the capability to match its sphere of influence, "  Indian air force head Air Chief Marshal P.V. Naik told the [Hindustan Times].
 
New Delhi presently intends to limit missiles in its strategic arsenal to ranges of roughly 3,100 miles, enabling the potential delivery of warheads to China and Pakistan, according to the Times.

"There's no point capping the missile program at 5,000 kilometers. If we have the technical capability, we should build on it,  " Naik said, becoming the first top-level Indian military officer to promote such a move while still in uniform.

India is also collaborating with Russia on development of a nuclear-capable, hypersonic cruise missile, the Brahmos.    The missile is said to reach Mach 5 speeds and to have an effective range of 180 miles.   India is looking to fit the missiles to its fleet of Sukhoi SU-30 jet fighters.

Arms Race Update - India Surges Ahead

India's economy may be smaller than its regional rival China's but its appetite for advanced weaponry isn't.   For years to come India is set to be the world's #1 buyer of foreign weaponry, primarily state of the art hardware from Russia.

With defence spending for the coming year pegged at just under $33-billion, India remains light years behind the debt-ridden United States where military spending throughout its vast military/industrial/civilian-warfighting complex is estimated to exceed a trillion dollars annually.

India, which has its own, indigenous military/industrial sector capable of designing and producing advanced missiles and even nuclear powered submarines, builds a lot of Russian equipment, especially aircraft, under licence.   The country is positioned to be Russia's main export customer for its new stealth fighter-interceptor.

China now appears to be locked into a major arms race with India.   Fueling this are border disputes, particularly involving Himalayan headwaters; US/India containment threats; and Indian domination of the Indian Ocean, a major sea lane route for Chinese access to the Middle East.   China employs Pakistan as a proxy to ramp up pressure on India and, in turn, threaten India's access to Middle East and Central Asian fossil fuel resources.

The estimates of India's arms appetite come from the Swedish International Peace Research Institute.  SIPRI (www.sipri.org) has found that, while India accounts for 9% of all weapons imports, close behind are China and South Korea at 6% each followed by Pakistan at 5%.

The United States continues to dominate weapons exports followed by Russia with 23% of the global trade, Germany at 11% and France at 7%.   Arms shipments from 2006 to 2010 were up 24% over the period 2001 to 2005.

Arms Race Update - China Won't Rule Out Nuclear First Strike

It sounds a bit like the American mantra of "all options are on the table."  China has amended it's "no first strike" nuclear weapons policy.  In a document ominously entitled "Lowering the Threshold of Nuclear Threats",  China now reserves the right to resort to nuclear weapons against a nuclear-armed power attacking its cities or infrastructure.

The People's Liberation Army's Second Artillery Corps, which oversees China's strategic nuclear force, "  will adjust the nuclear threat policy if a nuclear missile-possessing country carries out a series of airstrikes against key strategic targets in our country with absolutely superior conventional weapons,"   the policy states.

China's military "  must carefully consider"   a nuclear response to conventional-weapon attacks within the nation's borders, according to the documents. Targets that could draw such a response include any of China's leading urban centers or its atomic or hydroelectric power facilities, according to the documents. Any strikes posing an existential threat to the Chinese government could also merit a nuclear retaliation, they add.

 Beijing would first warn the opposing power of a possible nuclear response through television, the Internet or other communication channels, says the policy.

I haven't done an "arms race update" post for quite some time.  It's not for want of developments to report.  It's more reflective of a perceived indifference we've accepted to these things since the advent of nuclear proliferation.  There's all manner of things happening.   China is starting to push India's buttons over Kashmir.  The two country's border dispute is heating up.  Pakistan tested a new nuclear missile a few days ago.   India followed up by announcing plans to extend the range of its own intermediate-range nuclear missile.  Israel is now planning to send missile-warning to its people via their smart phones.  And this is all just from the last few days.

Twenty years ago most of these developments would have been big news.   Today, we don't even hear of them.  I wonder what that means?

Arms Race Update - A World Wedded to War

An interesting item in The Christian Science Monitor that reveals how the worldwide military/industrial,warfighting complex is thriving today despite the global economic troubles. The link takes you to a CSM review of the top 10 militarized countries ranked according to defence expenditures.

There are a few surprises. Italy, for example, comes in at number 10. Italy? I can see Britain, France and Germany, sure, but Italy? The article offers up a few other juicy bits. Did you know that America's current military expenditures come out at roughly $2,000 per year for every American man, woman and child? That's an $8,000 a year tax burden for the average family of four. China comes in second place but with total expenditures just one-sixth of America's. France edges out Britain for third place spending $63-billion to the UK's $58-billion.

Arms Race Update - Attack of the Drones

North Americans have been largely spared the sort of attacks experienced in other lands. We're surrounded by oceans vast enough to have kept most potential aggressors at bay. The Japanese sent over a few dozen balloons and their subs lobbed a few shells on shore targets but, by and large, we've not had much foreign aggression to contend with.


We did, however, institute a joint US-Canada air defence command, NORAD, to monitor the aerial approaches to our countries and maintain a fighter deterrent to potential aggressors. The focus was mainly on the bomber threat from the former Soviet Union. We deployed a sophisticated, conventional force to meet a somewhat less sophisticated, conventional threat. Well, what about the unconventional?


The Brookings Institute is examining the risk to the North American homeland from attack by unmanned, aerial vehicles, UAVs or drones. The point is no place is out of reach when "..a 77-year-old blind man from Canada designed an unmanned system that in 2003 hopped the Atlantic from Newfoundland to Ireland."


America has gone heavily into drone technology and its potential rivals and its enemies have been watching. Today, two-thirds of military expenditures on drones and drone technology is coming from countries other than the US.

Anyone with the money and a moderate amount of skill can acquire, assemble and launch an intercontinental drone from components freely available on the marketplace. And, as the Brookings report showed, drones can be devilishly hard to track, much less down. They're relatively stealthy and fighter jets have great trouble flying slowly enough to gun them down.

So, here we have an emerging 21st century threat to North American security with an enormously high-tech but potentially ineffective 20th century defence. We know that we're vulnerable, the bad guys know that we're vulnerable and, now, you know it too. It's conceivable that even Peter MacKay and Stephen Harper have finally clued into it ...but then again.

The question is what are we going to do about it? That the threat is real is beyond question. If the bad guys want to hit hard at Main Street, USA, drones are a far better option than highjacking airliners to fly into buildings. These can deliver real WMDs and they don't even have to succeed. The psychological blow is struck as soon as the public learns somebody actually launched one of these drones that could have caused widespread devastation, because, once it's happened the only question on peoples' minds will be when the next one will be launched, the one that will actually get through?

We've spent a lifetime, my lifetime at least, taking war to other peoples' backyards. In fact we're currently waging protracted but ineffective wars in the Middle East specifically (so the Right tells us) that we don't have to fight "them" at home. What if these rightwing nutjobs are wrong? What if their perpetual war actually ensures that the bad guys have every reason to bring their war to us? Tough questions, tough times.

America - Still Number One!

The United States may be reeling from the fallout of its Ponzi-scheme economy. It is struggling with a crushing debtload. It has lost a lot of its prestige and clout around the world. But it's still hands down Numero Uno where it counts - weapons sales.

When the world wants to kill somebody it still turns to Old Reliable, the United States of America. From Reuters:

The United States accounted for more than two-thirds of foreign weapons sales in 2008, a year in which global sales were at a three-year low, The New York Times reported on Sunday.

Citing a congressional study released on Friday, the Times said the United States was involved in 68.4 percent of the global sales of arms.

U.S. weapons sales jumped nearly 50 percent in 2008 despite the global economic recession to $37.8 billion from $25.4 billion the year before.

The jump defied worldwide trends as global arms sales fell 7.6 percent to $55.2 billion in 2008, the report said. Global weapons agreements were at their lowest level since 2005.

Look at it this way. If it wasn't for America's military-industrial complex, the United States might not have a complex at all!

Arms Race Update - Pakistan Expanding Nuclear Arsenal

You would think Pakistan would have better uses for the billions in military aid it has received from the United States than to ramp up its ability to wage a war of mutual annihilation on India. Apparently that's not the way Pakistan sees it. From The New York Times:

Adm. Mike Mullen the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed the assessment of the expanded arsenal in a one-word answer to a question on Thursday in the midst of lengthy Senate testimony. Sitting beside Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, he was asked whether he had seen evidence of an increase in the size of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal.

“Yes,” he said quickly, adding nothing, clearly cognizant of Pakistan’s sensitivity to any discussion about the country’s nuclear strategy or security.

Inside the Obama administration, some officials say, Pakistan’s drive to spend heavily on new nuclear arms has been a source of growing concern, because the country is producing more nuclear material at a time when Washington is increasingly focused on trying to assure the security of an arsenal of 80 to 100 weapons so that they will never fall into the hands of Islamic insurgents.

Admiral Mullen's terse admission reflects one of the most intractable problems in this region, one that largely plays out beneath NATO's nose in Afghanistan where our supposed ally, Hamid Karzai, constantly courts support from India. Fareed Zakaria recently noted that India is Afghanistan's main aid donor.

India wants to expand its presence in Afghanistan for reasons legitimate and illegitimate. It does have a pressing interest in the TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India) pipeline project that could give India access to Caspian Basin oil and gas. But it also allows India to give Pakistan fits over fearing an Indian-dominated Afghanistan boxing it in.

What never seems to get mentioned in the TAPI discussions is how India would secure its pipeline access against interruption by Pakistan. The pipelines would have to pass through Pakistan to reach India meaning Islamabad could turn off the taps for any number of strategic purposes which would cause enormous havoc to the Indian economy.

It's hard not to see Pakistan's drive to acquire more nukes except in the context of a perceived sense of increasing tensions or, worse, a belief in inevitable war with India. Pakistan is all too aware of India's massive drive to rearm and its overall qualitative and quantitative superiority over its Muslim neighbour. It's little comfort to Pakistan to know that India wants a more effective military to try to offset China's rearmament efforts because Islamabad realizes all that new Indian hardware can be used against Pakistan as easily as China.

The West has to solve this problem of growing Indian influence in Afghanistan. The more we allow containment paranoia to spread through Pakistan, the more we nudge Pakistan into the arms of China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. If we think we've got problems now...

Arms Race Update - Australia Goes for Its Guns

When it comes to the arms races now underway Australia is something of a miners' canary and, right now, it's a bird that deserves a lot of attention.

Australia is afraid, seriously afraid of the massive rearmament programmes underway in India and China. Afraid enough that prime minister Kevin Rudd has announced a $75-billion expansion plan for his country's military forces.

Included in the shopping list are 100 F-35 multi-role fighters plus a dozen hunter-killer submarines atop a gaggle of other acquisitions and upgrades. You can find the Australian government's defence White Paper here:

http://apo.org.au/research/defending-australia-asia-pacific-century-force-2030

Sooner or later, some Canadian leader is going to come to his senses and address the global security challenges facing our own country. Strategic balances, especially in Asia and the Pacific Rim as well as the far north, are in a genuine and destabilizing state of flux. Not only are these emerging economies expanding their defensive - and offensive - military capabilities but they're also engaging in quiet campaigns of containment. Ignoring those realities could leave us in a very uncomfortable position.

Arms Race Update - India's Boomers Nearing Reality

India could be just a few years away from deploying its own fleet of made-in-India nuclear missile subs. With the Bush-era American enthusiasm for India on the wane and American, Russian and Chinese interest in Pakistan growing, India seems to be feeling decidedly exposed. From Asia Times Online:

New Delhi has been actively seeking out assistance from France in the implementation of the ATV project, and that Russian engineers are already involved. The sources said that the sea trials of the nuclear-powered submarines should begin this month and that the submarines should be operational within the next three years. The secretive ATV nuclear backed ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) project began in the late 1970's and is being implemented at a secret dry dock in Visakhapatnam, India's Eastern Naval command base. Observers have said that the submarines are a critical addition to India's weapons capabilities.

New Delhi has been concerned about Beijing's strengthening of bilateral ties with Islamabad, particularly given recent tension on sea projects such as at the Gwadar port. China has also been developing ties with Sri Lanka and Myanmar to deepen its control over a complex energy-security conflict being aggressively played out in the region.

Given the ongoing tussle between India and China to control the waters of the Indian Ocean, the New Delhi government has been put under tremendous pressure from the navy to ramp up India's sea power. China has already spoken of creating three ocean-going fleets to patrol the areas of Japan and Korea, the western Pacific, the Malacca Strait and the Indian Ocean.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KB20Df02.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/KB21Aa04.html