Oil Wars - The Saudis Aren't Done With Russia Yet.

Saudi Arabia has targeted Russia's EU oil market share. The Saudi plan is to flood Europe with "Arab Light" crude oil at deeply discounted prices.

The Saudis, OPEC’s de facto leader and top producer, are aiming to grab market share from Russia in the oil price war it launched on Moscow to punish it for refusing to back deeper OPEC+ production cuts last week. And Europe is a key battleground in the new oil wars as Russia’s Urals crude has traditionally been a popular choice among European refiners.

Saudi Arabia hasn’t seen Europe as a core market in recent years because it has prioritized continuously growing demand in Asian markets. But in the war of market share, the Kingdom is now looking to squeeze Russian oil out of Europe by offering deep discounts which make its Arab Light crude priced at as low as $25 a barrel at Rotterdam, much lower than the price of Urals. 

If prices of Urals and other crude grades going into Europe don’t drop to match the Saudi discounts, Saudi Arabia is set to “push out” the Urals grade from the refiners’ diet, Energy Aspects’ chief oil analyst Amrita Sen said in a note, as carried by Bloomberg.

Russia, meanwhile, says production cuts are a non-starter, fearing one cut could lead to further spiraling cuts. However Russia is planning to counter Saudi Arabia's increased production by increasing its own.

Russia plans to boost its production by between 300,000 and 500,000 bpd from next month, which would bring the total to 11.8 million bpd. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said it will boost its production by more than 3 million barrels daily from current levels, to 12.3 million bpd, which is more than its production capacity. To be able to maintain this production rate, the state energy company Aramco has been told to boost its production capacity to 13 million bpd.

What Are the Chances?

Four old dudes in their mid to late-70s. At least three of them with compromised respiratory systems from decades of heavy smoking. The four of them decide to travel the world with stops, every few days, in major cities. Their itinerary includes appearing in the midst of crowds of tens of thousands of excited people at each stop.

Just askin'. I've got tickets.

Meanwhile, Since Government is Hell Bent on Clearing the Way for a Foreign-Owned LNG Plant

To hear creeps like Jason Kenney and John Horgan tell it, Canada is being undermined by environmentalists and First Nations protesters working hard to sabotage our fossil energy economy.

About British Columbia's natural gas scam. Something doesn't add up. The first clue was when Chevron, which holds a half interest in the Kitimat LNG operation took a $2 billion (USD) write down on the asset which it seemingly cannot find a buyer to take off its hands.

We know that oil markets are collapsing due to a glut of even low-carbon oil. However oilprice.com reports that, chaotic as world oil prices may be, methane markets could be in even bigger trouble.

Excess production, depressed demand, and weak prices: this sums up the natural gas market right now even better than it sums up the oil market. Unfortunately, with the China coronavirus outbreak on track to become global, things for gas may well get worse before they get better. And while oil is suffering, at least it’s got a cartel to attempt to balance things out. Gas doesn’t, putting it at an even greater disadvantage.

The global oversupply of natural gas is nothing new. A combination of new LNG and pipeline capacity and milder winters in some parts of the world combined to tip the market into oversupply that persists to date. However, demand has been worsening thanks to the outbreak that some are already calling a pandemic in the making. As a result, gas prices in Europe, Asia and the United States are falling. 

In Europe, the benchmark has lost 27 percent since the start of the year after losing close to 50 percent last year. In the United States, Henry Hub futures prices are currently below $2 per million British thermal units until July, when the futures price tops $2 per mmBtu. According to Richard Soultanian, president of energy consultancy NUS Consulting Group, prices in the U.S. could weaken further, to $1.50-$1.60 for near-month contracts, before they begin improving later in the year.

What could possibly help gas prices? Europe is full of gas to the gills. So is Asia. The Energy Information Administration has forecast that U.S. gas inventories will hit a record later this year, at 1.935 trillion cu ft, which would be 12 percent above the five-year average. Production shows no signs of slowing mostly because a lot of the gas produced in the United States is associated gas from oil wells in the shale patch. There seems to be no way up for prices, and this means more pain for some gas producers, especially pure-play upstream companies in the U.S.

Two dollars per million BTU. BC's break even price for LNG delivered to Asia is nine dollars per.  I know the BC government, the former Liberal government, put the province's neck in the noose years ago when it boasted of a trillion dollar bounty but, surely, the game is up now.

NBA Cancels Season

A setback for hoops fans everywhere.

The NBA has suspended the 2019-20 season after Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert tested positive for coronavirus on Wednesday. 

The NBA made the decision after a game between the Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder was postponed, then eventually called off. 

According to a statement from the NBA, the test result was reported shortly before tip-off. ESPN's Royce Young reported that a team doctor was seen sprinting onto the floor to talk to officials before the game tipped off. 

According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, both teams are still quarantined in the arena in Oklahoma City. Wojanrowski said Wednesday night will be the final night of games for the foreseeable future as the NBA enters a hiatus.

He Said It Was a Hoax. Now Trump Suspends Travel to Europe

This is starting to border on the absurd. Trump, who was initially dismissive of the coronavirus threat - until he worked out how to blame it on Obama - has now suspended travel between Europe and the United States.

President Trump said he would be suspending all travel from Europe for the next 30 days starting Friday. The restrictions will not apply to Britain.

Speaking from the Oval Office, Mr. Trump called the coronavirus a “horrible infection” and said he was addressing the nation to talk about the “unprecedented response to the coronavirus outbreak.” 

Mr. Trump also said health insurance companies had agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments and extend insurance coverage to cover coronavirus treatments.

The rare evening address by Mr. Trump was his most public acknowledgment of the severity of the coronavirus crisis after repeatedly playing down its seriousness even as his own public health officials contradicted him.

That sound you hear is a bouncing ball, rattling inside this president's cranium.

In other comedic news, Sean Hannity of Fox News has also been labeling Covid 19 a hoax. It so happens that the average age of Sean's audience is 65 which puts them right in the crosshairs of the group most at risk from the contagion.

This is apparently how Italians now queue:

Do Your Bit - Now, Go To Your Room

If it isn't one damn thing it's another.

Reduce your carbon footprint. Reign in needless consumption. Do this, do that and, when you're finished doing that, do this other thing. It ain't the freewheeling 80s any more.

So now we're being asked to wash our hands several times a day. Sporting events, concerts - give 'em a pass. Those who can, work from home. The Guardian has a helpful piece on how to convert that corner of your apartment for office Skype sessions. That'll come in handy when they start shutting down the schools (Seattle did that today) and somebody has to mind the kids.

It's not so much that you're going to keel over if you don't. It's that this virus business is going to put an immense strain on our healthcare system. It too is structured for optimal efficiencies. Whether it meets them or not is another matter. However it's not particularly resilient and it can break down. When it does, it's not just virus victims in jeopardy.

That was the message last week from Dr. Daniele Macchini, an Italian physician whose lengthy Facebook post was published in a local newspaper, translated into English and circulated on social media.

"And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists; we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us," he wrote. 

Three professors from the University of Milan also sent a letter warning doctors in the rest of Europe to "get ready," because 10 per cent of patients who test positive for COVID-19 end up needing intensive care.

"This situation is like a bomb that explodes, and you're simply overwhelmed by an incredible number of patients," another Italian physician, Dr. Giacomo Grasselli, told the CBC News Network this week.

Since we're losing the war to staunch the spread of Covid-19, the focus becomes on managing the problem, "flattening the curve."

"If you can slow it down enough and flatten the curve, so the same number of people get infected, but over a much longer period of time, then ... what you're allowing is that the capacity will not be exceeded," said Dr. Anand Kumar, a critical care physician at Winnipeg's Health Science Centre.

"And that protects the community, so that an ICU bed will be available when it's needed."

...Most healthy people will experience a mild COVID-19 infection because their immune system will protect them. But so far, the experience in Italy and China suggests that as many as 10 per cent of people infected can require critical care.

That creates an urgent need for beds in intensive care units, along with ventilation, dialysis and other life support technology. It also requires qualified health-care specialists to manage patients — excess capacity that Canadian hospitals just don't have.

You aim to modulate the population infected so that you don't have too many people in need of finite medical assistance at any one time. Covid 19 is a threat to your health but it may be an even greater threat to the resilience of Canada's healthcare system. Precautions that, at first blush, may seem excessive, even alarmist may be anything but.

Miami-Dade Commissioner "Tired" of Hearing About Coronavirus

I thought they had already made this movie:

Miami-Dade County Commissioner Joe Martinez during an emergency coronavirus meeting yesterday praised county officials for refusing to cancel outdoor events owing to the novel coronavirus outbreak. Then he complained he's sick of hearing about this darn virus already. 

"I'm glad we're not at this point even considering canceling any events," Martinez said from the dais. He joked that his own county commission meeting ought to be canceled too. "Because if not, let's cancel this one. Let's cancel the Legislature. Let's cancel Congress."

The commissioner's comments came after the City of Miami canceled the popular Calle Ocho Festival and organizers nixed the popular events Ultra Music Festival and Winter Music Conference. Multiple commissioners at the meeting, including Rebeca Sosa, whose district includes Miami International Airport, sounded outright uninformed about the virus that could strike their constituents any day now. Sosa, for example, claimed doctors don't know yet if the disease is "airborne" but was swiftly corrected.

But it's not just Florida's local pols who are throwing a hissy  fit. The cruise ship lines are fighting back also.

In the wake of the epidemic, a Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) employee in South Florida tells New Times some managers have asked sales staff to lie to customers about COVID-19 to protect the company's bookings.

These discussions take place every day. And even during our department meetings, managers tell us that it isn't a big deal, that more people die from other things," says the employee, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation. "[They're] constantly underestimating it." 

Emails leaked to New Times show that a senior sales manager at NCL's Miami office came up with canned responses for the sales team to use if potential customers expressed concerns about COVID-19. 

"Team," the email reads in part, "these are one liner's [sic] to help you close your guests that are on the fence. DO NOT USE THESE unless the coronavirus is brought up."
Some of the lines in the script pressure a fictitious customer to book a cruise immediately to avoid paying more later. 

"Mr Becker," the line reads, "due to the Coronavirus we have cancelled all of our Asia cruises on the Norwegian Spirit. This has caused a huge surge in demand for all of our other itineraries. I suggest we secure your reservation today to avoid you paying more tomorrow." (News reports, on the other hand, suggest cruise lines are suffering from a spate of canceled trips rather than experiencing high demand. NCL's stock price has fallen more than 35 percent in recent days.)

Other script lines simply reassure customers not to be afraid. 

"The only thing you need to worry about for your cruise is do you have enough sunscreen?" one of the suggested talking points reads. 

Some of the recommended responses are blatantly false. For instance, cruise bookers were instructed to tell potential customers that coronavirus is not a concern in warm Caribbean climates. 

"The Coronavirus can only survive in cold temperatures, so the Caribbean is a fantastic choice for your next cruise," one talking point reads. 

"Scientists and medical professionals have confirmed that the warm weather of the spring will be the end of the Coronavirus," reads a second. 

Another line says coronavirus "cannot live in the amazingly warm and tropical temperatures that your cruise will be sailing to."

WHO Says the "P" Word

The World Health Organization has at last declared the coronavirus, Covid-19, a "pandemic."

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, made the announcement at a press briefing on Wednesday. Since first being detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in Dec. 2019, the virus has spread to every continent except Antarctica and infected more than 121,000 people, causing 4,300 deaths.

The WHO has, in the past, defined a pandemic as "the worldwide spread of a new disease." The coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, spread to over 110 countries within three months. On Jan. 30, the WHO announced the coronavirus outbreak was a "public health emergency of international concern" around the time almost 8,000 cases had been confirmed across 18 countries and the death toll was approaching 200.

The WHO was reticent to call the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic in an attempt to prevent panic and suggested containment measures were helping control the spread, but experts suggested the conditions were met in late February as case numbers in Italy, South Korea and Iran began to rapidly climb. On March 9, Tedros announced "the threat of a pandemic has become very real" but reiterated the spread of disease was still under control.

No, That's "23 and You" Harvey

The Daily Beast reports that disgraced movie mogul, Harvey Weinstein, has been handed an all-expenses paid, 23 year stay in the Greybar Hotel for rape and sexual assault.  His counsel had argued he should receive the minimum, 5-year sentence but - no such luck.

Weinstein, 67, was convicted last month of sexually assaulting former Project Runway production assistant Miriam Haleyi and raping former actress Jessica Mann. The Oscar-winner—who was handcuffed to his wheelchair as he was removed from the courtroom—faced a minimum of five years and up to 29 years in prison.

Handcuffed to his wheelchair?

Weinstein did himself no favours when he rambled in court about how it really wasn't that bad for his victims and, after all, he was "a builder" and a gazillion little people depended on him for their jobs, including a lot of people he didn't even get around to - in a Biblical sense - because he was just too damned busy creating their jobs.

“I am a builder. I know how to build and I know how to generate and pass my success forward,” he said, claiming that his victims would say he’s “generous in that part of the relationship.”

“I am just feeling for the thousands of men and women who are losing due process,” he said. “I am worried for this country.” 

“People are losing their jobs over the fact that they testified,” he continued. “This is the United States of America. This is wrong. I had no great powers in this industry. At the height of it’s power, Miramax was a small business.”

So, it's Uncle Harvey, the 'generous rapist.'

Next up, Harvey flies to LA for round two of the Weinstein Rape-a-Thon.

Bernie Supporter, Michael Moore, Said it Best

Last night on CNN, Michael Moore seemed resigned to the idea that Joe Biden will be the Democratic choice for president. Moore has been an ardent supporter of Bernie Sanders but now accepts that Sanders' supporters can't have it both - ousting Trump and cleaning the stables of the Democratic Party.

When it comes down to it, sending Trump packing is the priority. Overhauling the Democratic Party apparatus can be left, for now, to working on reform from within.

C.D.C. to Seniors - "Hoard Baby, Hoard."

The US Center for Disease Control warns those over 60 should stock up on food and meds and avoid forays outside.

People who are over 60 years old, as well as those with underlying health conditions like diabetes, heart disease, and lung disease, are most vulnerable to getting sick or even dying from the novel coronavirus, and should take particular precautions to help protect themselves, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a media briefing Monday. 

... 

Messonnier also recommended people at higher risk and their families stock up on "enough household items and groceries so that you will be prepared to stay home for a period of time."

She reiterated advice to avoid close contact with people who are sick, wash your hands often and well, steer clear of "high-touch" surfaces in public places, and avoid crowds, particularly those in poorly-ventilated spaces.

... 

"This weekend, the federal government made a very specific recommendation in this context that travelers, particularly those with underlying health issues, defer all cruise-ship travel worldwide," she said, adding that people at higher risk should also cancel or reschedule "non-essential travel, such as long plane trips."

Messonnier pointed out that it's important for family members and neighbors to look out for folks who are in these higher-risk categories by, for example, making sure you're familiar with their medications and helping them get necessary food and supplies.

The goal of stocking up, she emphasized, is so more vulnerable people "can minimize trips to the store" and "stay close to home."

Finally, she said, caretakers should make a plan in case their loved-ones do get sick, as well as a plan for if they become ill themselves, like having backup caretakers.

There it is. The Center for Disease Control. No editorial musings added. I don't fashion the advice, they do. What I think doesn't matter one whit. What you think, however, does.

No, Say It Ain't So. Not That!

It's enough to make an Irishman's heart break into wee pieces. No St. Paddy's this year. No parades - not in Cork, not in Dublin. nowhere in the Republic.

The St Patrick’s Day parade in Dublin draws nearly 500,000 people and it is the latest in a series of large public events to be cancelled. The celebrations were expected to generate €73 million for the economy. 

The last time St Patrick’s Day parades were cancelled was due the foot and mouth restrictions in 2001.

Hoof and Mouth, that's one thing. But a virus named in honour of a beer? That's intolerable.

I'll Bet Teck Isn't Crying Now

If anything, Teck Resources should be breathing a sigh of relief that it chose not to proceed with its $20 billion Frontier mine project.

While the usual suspects - Kenney, Scheer, the Calgary Petroleum Club and Canada's petro-cheerleader, Post Media - will be blaming it all on Justin Trudeau, the jig is up and JT doesn't wear this one.

There's just way too much lower-carbon oil on the market, a glut. That's always bad news for high-cost/high-carbon/low-value bitumen, the oil market's red-headed step child.  Good oil, cheap; crap oil, cheaper. Can't be helped.

Now, Trudeau isn't off the hook entirely. He did get a lot of hopes up when he made his pilgrimage to Houston to assure the oil posse that no country would find 173-billion barrels of oil in the ground "and just leave it there." No, no, no - he told those hombres that Athabasca was in Mardi Gras mode and they could count on us.

I wonder if Justin would repeat that same boast today? I'm thinking not so much.

As for Teck, I guess they didn't want to commit seppuku - ritual suicide, Japanese style. Only a few months earlier Teck had to take a $900 million write down on its one-fifth share of the flailing Fort Hill mine.  They knew that financial markets were turning their backs on bitumen and coal. Even Captain Austerity, Jason Kenney himself, was musing about his all-but-broke government becoming a last resort/life support lender to the Tar Sands operators. That's almost as dumb as Trudeau buying that pipeline.

And just how bad is it? It's bad enough that the Post Media gang stubbornly insist that the West Texas Intermediate price is somehow valid for Athabasca bitumen. No mention whatsoever of Western Canadian Select which is the price for prairie bitumen. So how's that going? Brace yourselves. Dave Climenhaga of AlbertaPolitics.ca offers this:

Last night when I last looked on my handy-dandy cell phone app, West Texas Intermediate was down to $27.69 US, and Western Canadian Select, our tarsands special, was trading at $14.43.

Hardly makes a man eager to dig that 173-billion barrels of tarry sludge out of the ground, does it?

It's enough to make a grown man weep or, in the case of the Calgary Herald's Chris Nelson, wonder if Jason Kenney's policies were lifted from The Wizard of Oz.

Heck, we’ve seen more five-year plans than Joseph Stalin. It’s more of the same, rosy, budget-balancing revenue projections: another $8 billion in revenue, 55,000 more jobs, 2.8 per cent GDP growth and a $700-million surplus in the 2022-23 financial year? 

What an absolute crock. Look, if politicians are going to do the heavy lifting that balancing this budgetary mess entails, they’ll do so in the first 18 months of their mandate. They aren’t going to do the nasty stuff close to another election. 

Yet in the year ahead, we’ll be borrowing almost $7 billion. Of course, after that, the money will pour in and save us all. Really? Are we Munchkins here?

... 

Kenney placed his own head on the platter when bragging the budget would be balanced without affecting front-line services in key areas. 

That promise is like one of those tattoos you get in Vegas. Never forgotten but always regretted. 

Sure, well-paid consultants can browse the provincial books before pointing out the bleedin’ obvious: that we pay more per head for public services, yet this doesn’t translate into better outcomes. That’s simple number-crunching.

...Humans don’t like change. We’re lazy critters. The way we currently do things is the way we like ‘em. Therefore, if funding cuts are imposed to reduce the billions we now borrow, don’t expect any re-evaluation of how services are delivered. 

Not a chance. Instead, those cuts will be borne by front-line services. It’s the simple way, because it leaves the system itself intact. Plus it annoys the public, which helps pressure the politicians to back off. 

A final word on Teck Resources. There was a time, not that long ago, when the Teck controversy might be a thing for a couple or three weeks at least with accusations and recriminations and finger-pointing aplenty. It seems that time is over, prematurely consigned to our "past."

There are other things to grab our attention, bigger things, and they're coming on hot and heavy. Teck, who cares?

Oil Wars or How's That Pipeline Comin'?

Russia and Saudi Arabia are duking it out and it has sent world oil prices plummeting.

The Saudis have been trying to close the taps on oil production in hope of ending the worldwide glut that has depressed prices. On Friday Russia, which is not an OPEC member, said it wouldn't play along.

The Saudi decision to cut prices by nearly 10 percent on Saturday was a dramatic move in retaliation for Russia’s refusal on Friday to join the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a large production cut as the coronavirus continues to slow the global economy and, with it, demand for oil. 

The break in a three-year alliance between the Saudi-led oil cartel and Russia to support prices may be temporary. The moves over the weekend may well have been part of a negotiating chess game, and the Saudis and Russians can still reach a compromise. But if the collapse is lasting, oil executives say there is nothing to stop oil prices from tumbling to the lowest levels in at least five years.

“If a true price war ensues, there will be plenty of pain in the oil markets,” said Badr Jafar, president of Crescent Petroleum, a United Arab Emirates oil company. “Many will be bracing for the economic and geopolitical shocks of a low-price environment.”

Business Insider has reported that, as of the end of business today, world oil prices have dropped 31 per cent.

Oil futures tumbled 31% in a matter of seconds overnight on Sunday, their sharpest decline since the Gulf War in 1991. The losses are being fueled by sinking demand due to coronavirus concerns, which has in turn sparked a series of price cuts. 

Saudi Arabia slashed its prices by the most in at least 20 years over the weekend. A price-cut free-for-all has broken out globally following the collapse of an OPEC+ alliance last week.

Business Insider contends this is the biggest world oil price crash since the Gulf War of 1991.

Gee, this sounds like a great moment to be doubling down on expanding production of the high-cost/high-carbon/low value Athabasca bitumen, eh? 

Trust But Verify

Net zero by 2050. Sure, but do they mean it?

When a politician assures you his government is committed to making your country carbon neutral by mid-century how are you supposed to believe that?

If the government has been around for a while, a full term in office should be plenty, you can go by its track record. Has it been honest or dishonest? Has it been open or secretive? Has it kept its promises or reneged on them? Has it put the country ahead of its own partisan interests first?

If these questions set off a few alarm bells you have no business taking this "net zero by 2050" pledge at face value. If they'll lie to you, conceal the truth, renege on promises and pursue partisan advantage over the wellbeing of the nation in the short-term, why would they tell you the truth about something they tell you will happen in three decades from now, after they're long gone?

They want you to trust them but trust is earned. Has this government really earned your trust, anyone's trust?

Here's the deal. If the government is committed to a zero by 2050 Canada then it should already have a plan on how we're going to get there. It should be something they can document so that we can understand it and agree or disagree with it.

This is no time for manana politics - manana - tomorrow, eventually. Those 30 years are going to be gone in a flash.

We've been told we must cut by half our greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Ten years. Ten years to cut half, a further twenty years to cut the other half. Why ten and then twenty? Because the first half are the easy cuts. That doesn't mean they won't be painful or won't require sacrifice. They will just be easier to achieve than the final half. We'll have to work much harder to achieve the second half, to reach net zero.

Our government has never accepted the target of slashing our emissions by half by 2030. If they're not planning to do the easy part, they've got no credible plans for laying the groundwork for net zero by 2050.  They're just screwin' with you, hoping we'll be good little Gullibillies until all of this becomes the next government's problem.

It's time we asked our government where Canada's emissions will be by 2030. Does the government have any plan for cutting emissions by half by then? If not, why not? What do they want for Canada? What are they prepared to do for our grandkids?

I don't want to be a Gullibilly, do you?

Covid-19's Latest Victim - Jim Bakker

Greaseball ex-con Televangelist, Jim Bakker, just loves to monetize his faith because Jim truly believes in the divinity of money.

It came as no surprise then when Jimbo was quick off the mark to hawk his latest snake oil, "Silver Solution," as a fix for the corona virus. It can be yours for just a $300 "donation." And, just in case you've got HIV or the plague or a nasty case of mangrove swamp crotch rot, no worries. Silver Solution fixes those too.

Well it seems the New York attorney general got wind of Bakker's coronavirus claims and sent the scurvy bastard a "cease and desist" order. Somehow I don't think the deterrent of $5,000 is going to cut much ice with Jimmy.

Wash Your Hands, Dammit!

Wash early, wash often. That's said to be the best way to minimize your chance of contracting Covid-19.

But how much is enough? Ask Round Rock:

I think that's pretty clear. Questions?

Then There Were Two

Elizabeth Warren has dropped her bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Yesterday the rumour mill circulated the story that Warren had decided to endorse Bernie Sanders. If so, she hasn't announced it yet.

"Hamsterkauf" - Trust the Germans to Have a Word For It.

The common hamster is known for its ability to stuff extra food into its cheek pouches.

In Germany this has inspired a word for panic buying when there's some sort of public scare such as the coronavirus. Hamsterkauf.

Panic buying is perhaps part of the German angst that crops up once in a while. The question is: If angst made it into the English language long ago, isn't it time for hamsterkauf to follow suit and join the likes of dachshund, blitzkrieg, kindergarten, realpolitik and hinterland? Probably not, as compound words stand a far lower chance of ever being incorporated, but never say die in this crazy lexiconic world. 

Be that as it may, there's no denying the fact that a number of English-language publications have explicitly mentioned and explained the German expression for hoarding as they seem to like it quite a bit.

In a daily email newsletter called Morning Brew, which says it covers the latest news from Wall Street to Silicon Valley and beyond, hamsterkauf made into the "beyond" section this week.

"They say there's a German word for everything, so obviously, there's one for hoarding during times of widespread panic," the newsletter points out. "Hamsterkauf has a connection to hamsters, which store food in their cheeks," it continues. It even suggests using the German word in sentences such as "German grocery stores have been experiencing a wave of hamsterkauf during the coronavirus scare."

Monbiot Declares "Open Lawfare" on the British State

Guardian eco-scribe, George Monbiot, is in a mood to litigate an end to fossil energy power generation in the UK.

Far from building new fossil power plants, the survival of a habitable planet means retiring the damaging projects that have already been built. Electricity plants burning coal and gas and oil will not secure our prosperity. They will destroy it. 

But everywhere special interests dominate. Construction projects are driven, above all, by the lobbying of the construction industry, consultancies and financiers. Gigantic and destructive schemes, such as the Oxford-Cambridge Expressway, are invented by lobbyists for the purpose of generating contracts. Political support is drummed up, and the project achieves its own momentum; then, belatedly, a feeble attempt is made to demonstrate that it can somehow become compatible with environmental promises. This is what destroys civilisations: a mismatch between the greed of economic elites and the needs of society.

Monbiot et al are energized by last week's decision of the Court of Appeal to nix the long-awaited third runway at Heathrow airport.

The Heathrow decision stands as a massive and crucial precedent. Now we must use it to insist that governments everywhere put our survival first, and the demands of corporate lobbyists last. To this end, with the Good Law Project and Dale Vince, the founder of Ecotricity, I’m pursuing a similar claim. In this case, we are challenging the UK government’s policy for approving new energy projects. 

On Tuesday, we delivered a “letter before action” to the Treasury solicitor. We’ve given the government 21 days to accept our case and change its policy to reflect the climate commitments agreed by parliament. If it fails to do so, we shall issue proceedings in the high court to have the policy declared unlawful. We’ll need money, so we’ve launched a crowdfunding appeal to finance the action.

It sounds far fetched, almost wild-eyed, but it's really not. Eventually, albeit perhaps too late, we will have what Schellnhuber called an "induced implosion" of the fossil energy industry. Government will at some point begin shutting down the carbon economy and pushing the transition to alternative, non-carbon energy.  It'll be a "we can't go on like this" divorce and it could be protracted and ugly.

Bloomberg is Out

They're falling like flies. What's left - Biden, Sanders and Warren? Mayor Mike has withdrawn. Bloomberg just kissed goodbye the half-billion dollars he wasted on his presidential bid but not before giving his Billionaire Boys Club endorsement to - Joe Biden.

A  lot of Bernie supporters will be licking their wounds this morning but, seriously, does anyone imagine that Sanders could set a policy agenda for America's deeply "bought and paid for" Congress? There are still many primaries to go between now and the beginning of June but it's now a come from behind race for Sanders.

As for Elizabeth Warren, the future is not looking rosy either. She came in third in her home state of Massachusetts last night. Biden came in first.

Ms. Warren lost after liberal voters split sharply between her and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who flew into the state last weekend to campaign in hopes of dealing her a powerful setback. But instead it was former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. who came in first place in Massachusetts, winning voters over 50, moderates, black voters and even some liberals. 

The result represented her worst-case scenario. Ms. Warren had already finished in third place or worse in the early nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. That left her on the sidelines after Mr. Sanders and Mr. Biden picked up momentum and dominated the 16 Super Tuesday contests, which included delegate-rich states like California, Texas and North Carolina, as well as Democratic strongholds like Massachusetts.

Covid 19 an "Act of God"?

It's not just the health care system fretting about the Covid-19 virus. Commerce is also affected especially in the modern-era of global supply chains.

A lot of western concerns are dependent on products and components sourced from China or elsewhere in Asia. Many other industries, especially in the resource sector, get a lot of their revenue selling to China. China may sell more than it buys but it still buys. Just look at how we target China as a prospective major market for bitumen and LNG.

Commercial contracts often have a "force majeure" clause that exempts the parties from liability (i.e. claims for damages) for non-performance caused by unforeseeable consequences beyond the party's control. Let's say that ISIS overruns your refinery, for example, or a flood of Bibilical proportions swamps your mines, something rising to the standard of an "Act of God."

Where problems can arise is that different countries can have different interpretations of these terms. Not surprisingly, Chinese authorities are a little more cooperative with Chinese industries in issuing force majeure certificates.  Your country, however, may have a more narrow interpretation, a tougher standard established in your nation's courts. You might not have an enforceable claim against your supplier for failure to perform but that might not take you off the hook for claims from your customer arising out of the very same failure to supply.

It's a complex area of law that rarely offers ideal solutions.

Bloomberg offers a look at a related problem, the "price majeure."

Illness is a very unusual reason for declaring force majeure, but coronavirus isn’t a common ailment. It has quarantined entire cities in China, overwhelming hospitals while leaving streets and workplaces empty. Some commodity contracts won’t include epidemics, Perrott said, although a case could still be argued. “The more the measures to contain the virus prove to be unsuccessful,” he said, the stronger the case. However, it’s a brave trader who turns to the legal system to take on China. In practice, those doing business with the world’s fastest-growing economy may find it easier to negotiate a solution that works for both sides.

Traders often talk about “price majeure,” which isn’t a legal term but a joke about Chinese buyers using any excuse available to walk away from a contract when prices have moved against them. Take LNG: long-term cargoes are often priced as a percentage of the oil price, meaning that they cost about $6 per million per British thermal units. In the meantime, the LNG cargoes can be bought in the spot market for as little as $3 per million British thermal units. The trick for a buyer is to declare force majeure in the long-term supply contract, and turn around and buy cheaper cargoes in the spot market. If that happens, that’s when the sellers call their lawyers.

Well, This Is Not Auspicious

When I checked the news this morning there were six reported deaths due to Covid-19 in Washington State.

At 11:11 I received an email bulletin from the Seattle Times of another Covid-19 fatality, seven in all.

Then, at 12:27 the next Seattle Times bulletin pegged it at two more, up to nine so far.

How an Irishman Views the Coronavirus

From the Irish Times:

A wise teacher once told me that humans have two basic responses to threat: panic and complacency. Neither response is helpful and both are in evidence today, albeit about two different kinds of threat: panic about coronavirus and complacency about other, apparently less dramatic problems, including, most notably, climate change. 

In fact, there are plenty of people who are responding calmly and efficiently to coronavirus, and plenty who are appropriately exercised about climate change. But my teacher had a point. If even 10 per cent of the panic about coronavirus was shifted to climate change, the world would be a substantially better place and our fight against coronavirus would be none the weaker.

- Brendan Kelly

The Ghosts of Auschwitz

In January a group of politicians and dignitaries gathered to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Auschwitz death camp. They joined 200 of the last survivors of the Nazi hellhole. Henry Giroux writes that several of the survivors openly asked if we're not witnessing a return to that darkness.

Calls to never let such crimes happen again were mixed with impassioned indignation and a “warning against the complicity, apathy and demagoguery that paved the way to the mass slaughter of about 11 million people.” Several survivors spoke not only to the terrifying criminal nightmare and systemic ethnic cleansing undertaken at Auschwitz, but also to the conditions that made it possible, warning that the lessons there have not been learned by existing generations.

A number of the survivors expressed alarm at our current moment in history when authoritarianism is on the rise once again. They argued that indifference and the failure to hold power accountable provide the moral abyss and political foundation that makes mass murder possible. Many, such as 91-year-old Elza Baker, warned that, “There are signs to look out for, if you don’t watch out one day you wake up and it’s too late.” The toxic shadow of Auschwitz and the collective repulsion against bigotry, discrimination, racism and racial purity appear to have been forgotten as fascist forces long kept at bay in the margins of society have moved to the center of power. For instance, in Poland almost a 100 municipalities have adopted resolutions declaring themselves as “LGBT-Free Zones.” This anti-LGBT rhetoric echoes a sordid genocidal moment in Poland’s history. It makes the familiar claim of passing homophobic resolutions which exclude those considered disposable from public space in the name of defending Christian values and “children, youth, families and Polish schools from sexual depravity and indoctrination.”

Under demagogues such as Donald Trump in the U.S., Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Recep Erdoğan in Turkey, Narendra Modi in India and Viktor Orbán in Hungary, a moral abyss has emerged in which state violence, widespread repression and a surge of lawlessness against those considered disposable have become the hallmark of an updated fascist politics.

...
Repressive apparatuses associated with fascist politics are further normalized through a culture of fear and a language of demonization, depravity and racism long associated with fascist ideas and culture. For example, in the United States, the Trump administration appeals to the racist sentiments of neo-Nazis, ultra-nationalists, white Christian fundamentalists and white supremacists. This is evident not only in his relentless racist taunts, policies and discourse, but also in his various appointments of white supremacists such as Stephen Miller, an avowed white nationalist who serves as Trump’s senior aide and is the architect of Trump’s immigration policy. As Rebecca Gordon observes, Trump’s racism and embrace of white supremacy has emboldened individuals, groups and authoritarian politicians such as Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, who share Trump’s views.

We are witnessing the rise of evil men elevated to high office. So far it seems that our policy has been to ignore their vile ministrations in the blind hope they're a passing contagion that will run its course and go away. History has shown that's a terrible bet.

Gallows Humour

 I saw this on the weekend:

In the United States, conservatives use the word "socialist"

to describe everything to the left of hunting the homeless for sport.

Yikes!

Somebody's Hurting

I've never taken a cruise. Never wanted to go on one. Not my thing. For almost 20 years when I did want to travel it was astride my motorcycle. Flying has become something reserved for close relatives' funerals and they're pretty much gone now.

I don't understand why, in recent days,  I'm receiving emails from cruise line brokers. I have to say there seem to be some real good bargains out there. There are plenty of 14-day Trans-Atlantic cruises on offer at $350 to $400. Now I assume that's sub-steerage or bilge class accommodation but still, 14-days for 400 bucks. That's crazy.

Same same for those all-inclusive resorts. It's like they miss me and I don't even know those guys.

I expect what I'm experiencing are the telltale signs of a tourism industry being hammered by the Covid-19 virus. Now, granted, cruise ships have lost a bit of their lustre as the public has come to see them as viral incubators. It's probably not everyone's idea of a dream holiday to wind up moored at some remote dock, confined to your cubicle room, getting your meals left at your cabin door by - who knows? No party there.

Will this be the end of cruise lines? Who knows? This contagion is still playing out.

If we wind up in a pandemic it's hard to imagine that society won't be re-ordered in many ways, some of them very unexpected.

We are indeed living in interesting times.

What "American Dream"?

In Canada, Conservatives extol the United States as a land of virtually limitless opportunity and prosperity. Not so much. Business Insider shows how deeply America's middle class is being hollowed out.

The American economy may be booming, but its middle class is struggling. 

The median male US worker now has to earn more than a year's salary to afford the annual expenses for a family of four, according to "The Cost of Thriving Index" published by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, and previously reported by The Washington Post.

In 1985, the typical male worker needed 30 weeks' pay to cover the $13,227 required for a family of four's major living costs: housing, healthcare, transportation, and education. As of 2018, those expenditures had risen to $54,441, and the typical male worker has to work 53 weeks to get there. "This is a problem, as there are only 52 weeks in a year," Oren Cass, the report's lead author, wrote.

The "Cost of Thriving Index" points to tensions underlying the American economy, from the gender pay gap to skyrocketing living costs that have outpaced wage increases, particularly for younger generations.

Those between ages 25 and 34 have seen only a $29 income increase since 1974, when adjusted for inflation, according to a new SuperMoney report that analyzed US Census Bureau data. Adults ages 35 to 44 made nearly $2,900 more in 2017 than their 1974 counterparts did, while those ages 45 to 54 saw an income growth of nearly $5,400 over that same time period, adjusted for inflation. 

Meanwhile, college tuition has more than doubled since the 1970s, bringing the national student-loan debt to an all-time high of $1.5 trillion. According to Student Loan Hero, the average student-loan debt for a student who took out loans and graduated in 2018 was a whopping $29,800.

The price of home sales has increased by 39% since the 1970s, and national healthcare costs per person have increased by $9,000 in the same time frame, according to the SuperMoney report.

The increase in so many disparate costs shows that middle-class Americans carry several financial burdens — they're behind on homeownership, lagging in retirement savings, and have debt to pay off, according to a previous Insider and Morning Consult survey. 

When all the paychecks from one year don't pay off a family's living costs, our typical male worker will feel he's living paycheck to paycheck, but it's actually worse than that.

America has become a nation in which the master class flourishes at the expense of the working classes, blue and white collar alike.

Trump has been inordinately successful at convincing middle class America that their plight is all the Democrat's doing and Trump's recent numbers suggest a lot of them are buying his lies. He has them believing he's improved their lives even as they flounder while Trump delivers tax cuts for corporations and the rich as he simultaneously swells the US government deficit.

These Americans will also bear the brunt of pain if the Covid-19 virus morphs into a global economic recession.

Covid-19. It's the Economy, Stupid.

There's more to this virus than health problems. As the New York Times explains, Covid-19 could easily become a global economy wrecker.

The globalism spawned by the neoliberal order has inflicted some grave economic vulnerabilities on most countries. We become dependent on long supply chains and "just in time" delivery. That requires a high level of stability in every country in the chain. One country goes down and the chain can be broken and, if that happens, it can take a long time to fix. A Dell computer is said to be dependent on the timely supply of components from upwards of 30 countries. One of them goes down and the whole thing stops.   In May of 2018, Ford was forced to stop production of its best-selling F-150 pickup truck when a fire gutted a supplier's plant.

The May 2 explosion and fire at the Chinese-owned Meridian Magnesium Products plant in Eaton Rapids, Mich., disrupted output for Ford and several other automakers, including General Motors Co., Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV and Daimler AG’s Mercedes-Benz. 

The pain has been felt most acutely at Ford, since F-Series generates most of the company’s profit. The company had shut down F-150 assembly at the plants in Dearborn and near Kansas City and also stopped building bigger Super Duty pickups at a factory in Louisville. 

F-Series is the top-selling vehicle line in America, hauling in about $40 billion in annual revenue. Morgan Stanley values the franchise as worth more than the entire company.

The NYT article reveals there's not a lot Washington can do to avert a recession.

Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve — which appeared more likely Friday after a late-afternoon statement by its chairman, Jerome Powell — can lower borrowing costs and raise stock prices. But they can’t replace the goods made by factories closed to keep their workers from getting sick with Covid-19, the serious respiratory illness the virus causes. The government can try to pump more money into people’s pockets directly, such as with tax rebates, but money alone won’t put goods on empty store shelves.

If a potential coronavirus downturn were a fire, the recession-fighters would be like a fire brigade low on supplies, fighting among themselves, and probably lacking the right chemicals to quench the flames anyway.

“I’m looking at the combination of fiscal and monetary policy as potential triage,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM. “All they can do is really mitigate the shock of supply chains and reduce the second-order effects.”

The core of the economic problem emerging from coronavirus is a “supply shock,” meaning a reduction in the economy’s capacity to make things. Companies in China that have shut down because their workers are quarantined are not making goods. That could eventually mean shortages of certain items for which there are few sources of elsewhere in the world.

Multinational companies typically operate complex supply chains, with lean inventories and essential merchandise that often arrives just in the nick of time. That means American companies that rely heavily on Chinese suppliers might begin facing shortages of key goods in the weeks ahead, said Nada Sanders, professor of supply chain management at Northeastern Univ“I believe we’re going to have a massive shortage of goods,” she said. “Two weeks ago I told people this was coming. The big problem was economists don’t understand how global supply chains work, how intertwined and interconnected they are.” It is an issue she said would particularly affect pharmaceuticals and electronics. 

But supply problems can bleed into demand problems, and vice versa. 

“If first the store is empty of products, and then people don’t go to the store anymore and they lose their jobs, they can’t buy anything,” Ms. Sinclair said. “That’s what we’re risking here.” 

In parts of Italy, for example, where outbreaks of the virus have disrupted daily life, tourism is slowing and restaurants and stores are reportedly empty as people seek to avoid exposure. That could result in waiters and store clerks who endure a drop in income, which could in turn feed back into less demand for all sorts of products, and a weaker economy. 

Similarly, businesses might go bankrupt if the financial markets freeze up and they cannot get access to credit, meaning otherwise sound businesses end up laying off employees or closing down. 

The role for economic policy, in that sense, wouldn’t be to solve the supply shock, but to try to prevent that initial supply shock from triggering a demand shock.

...“There are a lot of reasons to think we don’t have a lot of tools for this,” Ms. Sinclair said. “It’s more of a supply-side issue, and we can’t do a whole lot to stimulate supply. And if it does trickle over into demand, it will be a real test of whether the Fed has any firepower left and whether we have appetite for the kind of fiscal stimulus that’s actually impactful.” 

In other words, it would be best if the public health efforts to contain the spread of the virus are effective enough that we don’t have to ask very much of the economic firefighters.

For those who think this is a hoax, the image above shows satellite images of greenhouse gas emissions over China. The first is pre-Covid 19. The second is recent. China's industrial triangle has ground to a halt. The skies are clear. That reflects production that has been disrupted which means knock-on disruption through the supply chain.

Covid-19, Best and Worst Case

I have no medical education. I'll bet you don't either. That leaves both of us ill-equipped to reach informed opinions about this corona virus, Covid-19. Is it just a passing thing, a seasonal flu sort of virus?

A guy in the know is Jonathan Quick, former chair of the Global Health Council who wrote a book, "The End of Epidemics: the Looming Threat to Humanity and How to Stop It."

Here, in one concise paragraph, he explains the best and worst case scenarios.

The best case is that the Chinese conflagration is brought under control, the smaller “flames” we’ve seen flare up in other countries are extinguished, there’s little or no spread to new countries or continents, and the epidemic dies out. The worst case is that the outbreak goes global and the disease eventually becomes endemic, meaning it circulates permanently in the human population.

Permanently? I don't like the sound of that. But really, what are the odds?

The worst-case scenario is looking increasingly likely. We’ve now seen cases on six continents, apparently “silent” – that is, at least partly asymptomatic – chains of human-to-human transmission both inside and outside China, with additional countries reporting cases within the last week – bringing the total to 47 – and new, accelerating outbreaks in Iran, Italy and South Korea. If it becomes a pandemic, the questions are, how bad will it get and how long will it last? The case fatality rate – the proportion of cases that are fatal – has been just over 2%, much less than it was for Sars, but 20 times that of seasonal flu. There are still many unknowns – we may have underestimated the period during which a person is contagious, for instance, and the variety of ways in which the virus spreads.

But surely "they'll think of something" right? That's what we always say - they'll think of something.

Evidence suggests that vaccine hesitancy* diminishes when lots of people are dying. Once an outbreak is over, however, levels of vaccine uptake may depend on how fresh that outbreak is in people’s minds – even though the risk of another one is real. I’ve written about a hypothetical situation in which a new and dangerous pathogen emerges, a vaccine is developed, and you still get a pandemic, because large numbers of millennials refuse the vaccine. In the US, 20% of millennials believe that vaccines cause autism. The problem is bad information. As my students often remind me, news tends to be behind paywalls, while fake news is free.

* Vaccine hesitancy, also known as anti-vaccination or anti-vax, is a reluctance or refusal to be vaccinated or to have one's children vaccinated against contagious diseases. It is identified by the World Health Organization as one of the top ten global health threats of 2019. Wikipedia

"Canada is Broken"

69 per cent of Canadians polled say that Canada is broken. 

In a time of widespread disagreement and ever-increasing polarization, there remains a bitter solidarity among Canadians in the belief that the government doesn’t know what it’s doing. 

In the wake of regional discontent from the western provinces and blockades jamming up the country’s rail network, a towering majority of Canadians agree with the statement, “Right now, Canada is broken.” 

Sixty-nine per cent of Canadians agree with the statement, rising to 83% in Alberta, found a DART & Maru/Blue poll conducted for the National Post.

The poll spells bad news for Justin Trudeau with a majority of people believing that the country is not headed in the right direction and that the prime minister is not governing well. The Liberals also get most of the blame for the rail blockades. 

And on Trudeau’s signature promise to help Indigenous people, two-thirds of Canadians don’t believe he has delivered on that pledge. 

“A lot of the blame has been centred on the prime minister and the Liberal government,” said Daniel Béland, the director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada.

...Asked to rank how various people have handled the Wet’suwet’en protests, 67 per cent of people think the rail companies have handled it well. The provincial police get a 57 per cent approval rating and the RCMP get 55 per cent approval. 

Politicians, though, get much worse reviews. Provincial premiers get a 45 per cent approval rating, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer gets 36 per cent approval, and only 27 per cent of Canadians think Trudeau has handled the situation well.

...More than 80 per cent of Canadians believe their politicians care more about their own partisan interests than working on behalf of all Canadians. The highest level of agreement on this came from Alberta, at 90 per cent, and Atlantic Canada, at 86 per cent. 

[Dart pollster John] Wright said the issue of increasing partisanship and polarization is one that worries him. 

“People are truly frustrated with the inability of their leadership to come together and recognize that human beings are being affected by their decisions and that they’re not simply voters,” said Wright.

The problem with this poll is that it almost guarantees the outcome, the piling-on of the prime minister. Yes, we've become a deeply divided society. Isn't that an occurrence common to former liberal democracies beset by the corrosive nature of neoliberalism? Is Britain not a divided society? Is Germany not divided? Is Bolsonaro universally loved across Brazil? What are we to make of the United States whose people are more angrily divided and distrustful than at any time since the Civil War?

Have the Tories been a force for nurturing social cohesion in Canada? Absolutely not. Stoking division and rancor is their stock in trade. Movement conservatism is fueled by this sort of division. But you will never hear that in the pages of PostMedia because they're in league with the Conservatives and openly supportive of the petro-state.  They're right in claiming that Canada is broken. They wouldn't have it any other way.

Before we leave the subject of our ailing democracy, how about a First Nations take on the same subject? Matthew Norris is a member of the Lac La Ronge band and currently a PhD candidate at UBC. He too sees a crumbling legitimacy of Canadian democracy only his take is different. It's a worthwhile read, deserving of ten minutes of your time.

Once Upon a Time, Chapters 9 (Viet Nam) and 14 (Afghanistan)

I was listening to the BBC World Service podcast this morning. They had a brief interview with some anodyne retired US Army general, one of many now forgotten names who had done a stint commanding American and ISAF forces in Afghanistan. He was questioned about the new peace deal struck between Washington and the Taliban.

The official White House line is that this marks an American victory over the Talibs. Even Pompeo says that with a straight face, not a trace of hilarity on his visage.  The BBC's talking head general was a bit more restrained. He said it was a victory for Afghan women. Apparently they now have rights that will persist into the future in some form, maybe.

The interviewer struck a raw nerve when he mentioned the Taliban were also declaring victory whereupon the cookie cutter general said they had better not because America wouldn't tolerate that. Really. America stood ready to return and restart the war if the Talibs got out of line. Yeah, sure.

Like all fairy tales this war begins with 'once upon a time' - 1973 - in a distant land, Paris. Two dudes met there - Henry Kissinger, on behalf of the United States, and Le Duc Tho on behalf of the Peoples Republic of Viet Nam, a.k.a. North Vietnam.

For more than a decade American forces had been fighting a fairly bloody war to check the spread of Communism in Southeast Asia by propping up a series of puppet governments in South Viet Nam. They had tried and tried but never got very far.  The Communist's supply of soldiers seemed inexhaustible even as America dropped more bombs than in World War II. That's 7,662,000 tons of bombs and that's a lot. Laos wasn't even a combatant yet it received, on average, 8 bombs per minute from 1964 to 1973. But I digress.

After dropping all these bombs wherever they could find a place to drop bombs and still not getting anywhere with Hanoi, the Americans started to think they were neck deep in a shit show so they convened a sit down that resulted in a peace deal called the Paris Peace Accord.  A curious aspect of the accord is that it was negotiated and agreed by just the United States and the government of North Viet Nam. The other government, the Saigon regime of South Viet Nam, wasn't at the table. It was there in spirit only, I suppose. The Nobel Prize committee only handed out two Peace Prizes for that - to Henry Kissinger and Le Duc Tho (Comrade Tho declined).

Then, deal in hand, the US delegation went back to Saigon to present them the accord as a fait accompli. For appearances sake the US pretended the South was in on it, but they weren't. Washington tried to pretend it secured peace for the South, but it didn't. The truth came out via the White House tapes Nixon was forced to cough up to the Special Prosecutor during Watergate.

The president of South Vietnam, in whose defense more than 50,000 Americans gave their lives, wept upon hearing President Richard Nixon's proposed settlement terms. ...Nixon would leave North Vietnamese troops occupying and controlling much of the South, while withdrawing all remaining American ground forces. "It is only an agonizing solution," said President Nguyen Van Thieu, "and sooner or later the government will crumble." National Security Adviser Henry A. Kissinger reported Thieu's response to Nixon on October 6, 1972, adding, "I also think that Thieu is right, that our terms will eventually destroy him."

As schoolchildren are taught, Nixon promised America "peace with honor" via a strategy of "Vietnamization" and negotiation. Vietnamization, he said, would train and equip the South Vietnamese to defend themselves without American troops. He realized it wouldn't. "South Vietnam probably can never even survive anyway," the president said on tape. 

This was no mere passing doubt. On his first full day in office, he'd asked military, diplomatic and intelligence officials how soon the South would be able to handle the Communists on its own. The answer was unanimous: never. The Joint Chiefs, CIA, Pentagon, State Department, and the U.S. military commander in Vietnam, General Creighton W. Abrams, all agreed that Saigon, "even when fully modernized," would not survive "without U.S. combat support in the form of air, helicopters, artillery, logistics and major ground forces."

Okay, with that background in mind, let's flash forward to 2020, yesterday when the United States and the Taliban signed another 'peace with honor' agreement for US forces to di di mau out of Afghanistan.

Another deal where America negotiates with a rag tag adversary it has not, in almost 20 years of combat, with every conceivable advantage in its favour, managed to defeat. Another deal that America negotiates in the absence of its client government that will eventually destroy the Kabul government. Another deal that leaves the adversary in occupation and control of most of the countryside. Another deal presented under the illusion of 'peace with honor.' The parallels are crushing.

You know the adage that 'victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan'? Yeah, that one. See?

What's the lesson here? There are so many. One is that America can win battles but unless the US can force its enemy to fight on American terms, to fight in the American style, the US can be defeated every time. This invokes another adage - we have all the watches but they have all the time. There's no need to defeat American forces in battle. You just have to bleed them a bit and wait for America's clock to run out.

Some have called it "The War of the Flea." Long before he became a household name, David Petraeus, told a journalist that all an enemy like the Taliban had to do was to be left still holding the field when the last American troops boarded the final transport out of Afghanistan. He was right then. He's right now.