Tuesday, March 03, 2020

Well, This Is Not Auspicious

When I checked the news this morning there were six reported deaths due to Covid-19 in Washington State.

At 11:11 I received an email bulletin from the Seattle Times of another Covid-19 fatality, seven in all.

Then, at 12:27 the next Seattle Times bulletin pegged it at two more, up to nine so far.


the salamander said...

.. Not happy hearing that, Mound. We are seeing credible stats now re the morbidiy & mortality finally. Approx 90% who die are 39 and older, especially the weak and sick of course.. I believe it will eventually begin to play out, like SARS, however it does seem quite virulent though. I do not believe they truly understand the full pathology - transmission modes of the infection. My understanding was that it does not pass through the skin.. yet .. ? Since I use public transit a ton.. I am tripling my hand washing outside of home. And.. today I had a doc appointment and realized handing over my Health Card to Reception (a great wise battlewagon RN) or the key to the washroom, or the door handle, any magazine or handrails (which I don't ever touch anyway) raises the transmission issue in my mind.. after all, a doc's office or hospital is not where I want to spend much time.. or crowded Pub Transit. Grocery stores ? Hmm

Anonymous said...

No, sounds like Seattle's lost track of cases. The overall case fatality ratio (CFR) for Covid-19 is 3.8% according to the WHO, 2.3% according to Chinese public health. With 9 deaths, there should be around 237 to 391 other cases in and around Seattle. However, my understanding is that most of the Seattle cases are concentrated in a seniors centre. According to the WHO, the CFR for people over 80 is 21.9%. Assuming all those deaths were in people over 80 still leaves you with 41 other cases. I haven't heard those sorts of numbers being quoted, which means public health has lost track of cases. This is definitely not auspicious.


Toby said...

One wonders how American health insurance companies will use their "pre-existing condition" excuse to wig out of their obligations.

The private, for profit health care system in the US will mean that many, if not most, of those with flu-like symptoms will not get checked for Covid-19 until they have spread the disease far and wide. The US could easily become a very large "petri dish."

Canada is not prepared for an epidemic of any kind. Our hospitals have been under funded for a long time. Beds, wards, and even whole hospitals have been closed. The penny pinching may backfire.

Canada is also not ready for Americans and others fleeing the disease. I'm not predicting that they will, just that we aren't prepared if some do.

The Disaffected Lib said...

Sal, a friend told me that she is noticing a real drop in passenger loads on Vancouver's Sky Train.I wonder if more are driving to work in Vancouver's already hyper-congested traffic. My daughter, who works for Ernst & Young, says the firm has notified employees to consider working from home. It's tax season and they're worried about losing employees. I guess most of their work these days is digital anyway.

I'm going to Costco in Nanaimo tomorrow. I called today and was told they were swamped on the weekend. I may swing by Cabelas while I'm there to see if they had a run on guns.

Well,there's always rubber gloves.

The Disaffected Lib said...

Well done you, Cap. A neat forensic analysis that does seem compelling. They might have lost track of the spread of the virus. I wonder what they're doing in industrial concerns such as Boeing. Oh wait, the 737 Max... I forgot.

The Disaffected Lib said...

It's not a pre-existing condition problem, Toby, because the viral contagion is so recent.

What might be triggered are contractual exemptions, "force majeure" clauses that can excuse one side from liability for failing to deliver products on time, etc. due to workplace or supply chain disruption.

It's reported that a number of Chinese factories have shut down or scaled back and it is in the nature of globalized free trade that might have knock-on or ripple effects through the supply chain, country to country.

Trailblazer said...

No, sounds like Seattle's lost track of cases.
Could that be because the original Virus check paraphernalia was faulty and has had to be replaced?

Private enterprise kinda fails in these situations!


Toby said...

The Disaffected Lib said, "It's not a pre-existing condition problem, Toby, because the viral contagion is so recent."

I was being sarcastic. Insurance companies will try anything to avoid shelling out.

e.a.f. said...

its not a pre existing condition so insurance companies would have to pay. It maybe one of the reasons the Americans aren't testing. Insurance companies don't want it. It has been reported the tests are in excess of $3K and the patient pays approx. $1,200. By Saturday evening Dix was reporting B.C. had conducted well over a thousand tests. As of today, the U.S.A. had conducted 500.

From what I've seen to date, the U.S.A. maybe the hardest hit country when this is all over because they lack a decent health care system. Even countries which may be ranked as 2nd world countries will do better as will some 3rd world countries because they've had experience dealing with Ebola, Malaria, etc.

Money isn't going to help wealthy Amerians. there are only a million hospital beds in the U.S.A. with a population of 340M. Stats reflect there are approx. 11 million, millionaires in the U.S.A. Perhaps half of them are only "paper millionaires" or "real estate millionaires". Even if 5 million had a million cash on hand they would not be able to all get a hospital bed. Doctors and hospital administrators would be making sure their families had hospital beds first.

In Canada, we're more a "triage' system, the sickest the fasted care. Our system will push elective surgeries down the pipeline if emergency surgeries are required.

Some major Canadian cities may also see Americans coming across into Canada for testing and/or medical care if they become ill. At the rate trump and pence are running this clown show, Americans will be flooding Mexico to see a doctor.

Northern PoV said...

I think Cap has it right unless the WA state virus is stronger/ more fatal.

They haven't been aggressively testing - likely many visitors and staff at the care homes have now infected their communities.

The perfect storm could be coming:
Trump closed his pandemic response team 2 years ago and Pence is in charge only to suppress information. Much of the populace can't afford tests or medical help under their weird system.

I saw an analysis that compared conditions in WA today to those in Yuhan on Jan 1.

Many of us live a few km from WA state. We may be crying out for closed borders any day now.

The Disaffected Lib said...

Thanks e.a.f. for that background information. You've really put America's engineered vulnerability under a stark light.

The Disaffected Lib said...

NPoV, my son-in-law is a software designer at Microsoft in Vancouver. His job has him regularly shuttling between Vancouver and Redmond. It's fairly routine for the tech industry. Worse, I suppose, is that they work in teams.

The Disaffected Lib said...

And, speak of the devil, not ten minutes after I penned my previous comment I received a bulletin that a Covid-19 case has been reported at Amazon's Seattle headquarters.

Northern PoV said...

In 2003, my marketing rep was politely told leave the customer site in San Jose CA - at mid presentation. Someone suddenly noticed her point of origin as Toronto.

Please don't visit your son.
I'd say social isolation in BC is key for the next few weeks (esp regards to Americans & their contacts.)

In 2 or 3 weeks we'll know if this is true:
"conditions in WA today to those in Yuhan on Jan 1"

Trailblazer said...

At a time when an authoritarian regime such as China is seeing a decline in new infections , it begs the question of the benefits of , or not, strong national governance?
China with it's huge population would seem to have contained the virus, be it at the expense of civil liberties.

One has to wonder just how well the, libertarian, land of the free! will cope with such a situation?
This epidemic is sure to create a conundrum for our southern neighbours!