As think tanks go, Britain's Royal Institute for International Affairs, commonly known as "Chatham House", is about as authoritative as they come. That's one reason to heed its latest report warning that Iraq is poised on the brink of collapse and fragmentation.
The BBC reports this latest paper, written by Gareth Stansfield, a Middle East expert, is unremittingly bleak. Mr Stansfield, of Exeter University and Chatham House, argues that the break-up of Iraq is becoming increasingly likely.
"In large parts of the country, the Iraqi government is powerless, he says, as rival factions struggle for local supremacy.
"The briefing paper, entitled Accepting Realities in Iraq, says: "There is not 'a' civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars and insurgencies involving a number of communities and organisations struggling for power."
"The paper accuses each of Iraq's major neighbouring states - Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey - of having reasons 'for seeing the instability there continue, and each uses different methods to influence developments'.
"The paper says: 'These current harsh realities need to be accepted if new strategies are to have any chance of preventing the failure and collapse of Iraq.'
Mr Stansfield contends that the American security surge is moving violence to different areas, but is not overcoming it.
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