Stephane Dion doesn't have to worry about my vote and he probably doesn't have to worry about yours either. That said, your vote and mine aren't going to make or break Dion and the Liberal Party in the next election. That fate rests in the hands of the great many, uncommitted Canadian voters. They're the votes that Dion has to win over and, according to the latest Angus Reid poll, he's not doing it.
At 25 per cent approval, Dion's numbers are well behind those of the Liberals who sit at 34%. That suggests there are quite a few people willing to support the Liberal party despite Dion's lacklustre leadership. For a leader whose claim to fame is the environment, the poll numbers are even more gloomy. While the Greens came out as the top party on the environment, the NDP outpolled the Libs on Dion's forte issue 2:1.
The incredible shrinking Liberal leader needs to get his act together - pronto! If he continues to be seen as a milquetoast, the party will pay a big price for it in the next election. When the Tories ran those ads attacking Dion as a leader, they weren't trying to change public opinion, merely reinforce it. They had obviously done their own polling and determined this was where Dion was truly vulnerable.
So, Stephane has to show he's not what so many now think he is. He's got to come out as bold and dynamic and even aggressive. This is not a time for wallflowers. With an election as potentially close as the next one, perception becomes almost everything.
You see, this problem goes far beyond the next election. Dion needs solid public support and trust, not just to oust the Harper conservatives but to make real progress on selling the Canadian people on the sacrifices that will be necessary to begin combatting global warming. If you can barely get elected, you don't have a snowball's chance of getting anywhere on global warming.
18 comments:
I do not trust Angus Ried, as that is an online poll. Regardless , you are correct. Dion has to do something..who tells him what to do?
why are you concerned about a computer poll...a lot of people who vote do not even own one...this is definitely one of those crooked polls ..even though I would vote for dion..HE DON'T IMPRESS ME MUCH.
why are you concerned about a computer poll...a lot of people who vote do not even own one...this is definitely one of those crooked polls ..even though I would vote for dion..HE DON'T IMPRESS ME MUCH.
Patience. Patience.
The fact is Stephan Dion IS the leader and WILL lead the party into the next election. The Liberal party is made up of well experienced people and has been the choice of Canadians for much of our history. The party of fools belongs to the other guy and since it's always a better policy to let the other guy hang himself, Steve should have center stage, he's doing a grand job of it. Odds are things are well under control at Liberal headquarters so best the rest of us can do is demonstrate patience and a strong, silent vigal.
(of course it never hurts to rattle the cage)
Dion's was elected as the francophone, who is strong on the environment. The fact he lags well behind on the environment, and the Liberals look like a trainwreck in Quebec, is very concerning. When you are weak on your supposed strengths, it makes you wonder where you can go.
I have commented on your blog before about Dion's problem and the Liberals environmental issue's.
The Liberals and Dion cannot win the next election asking Canadians to make sacrifice's that make no difference to global warming. The Liberals cannot win the next election on a platform that they themselves failed on. Its just that simple. More and more Canadians are beginning to understand what Kyoto is and was about, and, that sacrificing or putting at risk jobs and our economy for one quarter of 2% isnt really a smart thing to do. He also cant say that there are economic benefits to be had by going Kyoto Green and just leave it at that. I think Mr Dion is a good, smart and honest man. But I also know that it takes alot for Canadians NOT to vote Liberal. Trying to win the next election using the environment as thier main platform was, is, and will be a major mistake.
It's already been said.. this is an online poll. That in itself makes the results questionable.
Sorry Bill but I don't share your perspective on global warming. As for "patience, patience", that sounds like a great policy to falter in the next election. When we go to the polls is a decision we may not control. We have to be ready now and patience won't accomplish that. "Odds are that things are well under control at Liberal headquarters"? Wouldn't it be great to see some sign of that?
Scott, I agree with you about online polls but that doesn't change the sorry fact that our leader has had plenty of time to garner public support. We can't rely on Harper shooting the Tories in the foot and handing us a win by default. That won't provide the essential base of support for any meaningful mandate on change.
You may disagree Mound, but, you cant dispute facts. Canada produces 2% of the worlds GHG's. Its a pretty safe to say that at best, over the next 5 years we could cut maybe a quarter of that, thats if Mr Dion had his way. So, thats 0.00025% reduction in GHG's. As China continue's to grow and build coal fired plants, our cut backs are negated. Now, how on earth does anyone sell that in an election. And this is what Mr Dion has tied his horse to. I think its time people started to be honest as to why Manley, Rock, Mckenna etc wanted nothing to do with a leadership run.
Bill, there's no argument that Canada's total contribution to GHG emissions is relatively paltry in some respects. But bear in mind that the problem is called global warming. It has to be addressed globally and if we're to get the Chinese and Indians to act, the major per capita GHG emitters (and here we're #2 Bill) have to show we're going to act.
Online poll or not, these results are exactly in tune with findings by other firms. We ignore at our own peril.
Mound, if the Liberals try to win an election telling Canadians that the economic hardship they will feel is not to stop global warming but to show India and China how serious we are then they are in for an overly long run on the opposition bench's.
Bill, I have your point. That said, the country does need leadership on this troublesome issue. If we shirk it for political gain, what does that say for the Liberal party?
I dont know how Mound, or why, but, the Liberal wagon got hitched to Kyoto, not a reasonable time table, not a made in Canada approach, but a deadline that was unworkable and plain irresponsible. Mr Harper was there for the taking and instead of letting him fall on his ungreen sword, Mr Dion and the Liberals swarmed on an issue they themselves failed at and an issue they couldnt win an election on, I've commented on so many blogs about Kyoto and the Liberals political insanity pertaining to Kyoto. What scares Canadians about Mr Dion is not that he will say one thing and do another, its that he WILL keep his word and Kyoto will become law come hell or high water. At least Mr Chretien had enough sense to use Kyoto as a photo op and nothing else...were not too sure about Mr Dion.
Patience. Patience.
The fact is Stephan Dion IS the leader and WILL lead the party into the next election. The Liberal party is made up of well experienced people and has been the choice of Canadians for much of our history
This kind of mentality drives me nuts, and as an active member of the LPC, I worry that we are seeing a comeback of this "don’t worry, Canadians won’t vote for the other guy, our guy is nice" attitude. It was rampant in December 2005, during the last election campaign. The LPC, as an institution, does have a cultural problem at this point in that most members feel they are entitled to power because history says so. The fact that Harper only won a minority seems to have reinforced this attitude. I see it everyday with volunteers.
I’m also concerned that members of the party are taking Harper's stumbles as a sign of our impending return to power. The last thing we need to do is underestimate the current Prime Minister, again.
Honestly, if these last few terrible weeks for the CPC did actually have an impact on public opinion as most bloggers tend to indicate, we would be polling in the 40's by now. All governments have their bad weeks, and most tend to get past it. In fact, most Canadians wont care when they don’t expect a campaign any time soon.
As far as Dion is concerned, I think the jury is still out. The political class and pundits tend to like the guy because of his integrity, honesty and consistently being underestimated. The question is, will most Canadians, who don’t follow politics at all, be able to see these qualities in an intense 4-6 week election campaign? I don’t know.
One last thing, a poll of Canadian business leaders has just come out, and I found the following numbers interesting:
Q: Do you expect the Conservatives will govern for the next four years, whether there is an election or not?
Strongly agree: 11%
Somewhat agree: 57%
Somewhat disagree: 19%
Don't know: 9%
Strongly disagree: 3%
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070618.wrcsuite18/BNStory/robNews/home/?pageRequested=3
Remember, these were the fellows who consistently voted Liberal throughout the 90's and early 2000 and tend to support who they think the winners will be.
Centre, thanks for the insights. You're right, we can't afford complacency in the LPC - at any level - and that includes the very top. Dion has to start taking the fight to Harper and he has no time to squander in doing it.
Enna says....This sitution is just another reason why we have to change our voting system. Prime Ministers should be voted separately from the party, and, they should only serve two five year terms. Canadians wouldn't be so apathetic perhaps...since we could vote for the party but not the leader. That doesn't make us a republic either as south of the border...look at Australia.
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