Thursday, June 14, 2012

Is China Grooming Africa for Half a Billion Surplus Chinese?

The theory, published in Asia Times, is that Chinese authorities have figured out their homeland can support a population of 700-million, max.   With current numbers at 1.2-billion, China has to jettison hundreds of millions of people.

"While a cottage industry of "China-in-Africa" experts has emerged over the past five years, on balance their explanations of why a magnetic like pull exists between the two continents is unsatisfactory. Certainly no one denies an array of state-to-state economic and geopolitical incentives recognized by both sides. After all, the simplified resources-for-infrastructure win-win is rather obvious.

"Yet and still neither of those benefits - Africa's gain of badly needed dams, roads, pipelines and bridges and China's receipt of desperately needed oil and minerals - is as compelling as the widely rumored and highly plausible determination that China's mainland can only sustain 700 million persons. Therefore at least 300 million to 500 million of its current 1.2 billion population must go elsewhere. The "elsewhere" is Africa... "

It's difficult to imagine how, short of an outright military takeover, China could compel African states to become a repository for surplus Chinese.    Then again the idea that China may not be able to sustain a permanent population in excess of 700-million is more than plausible and does beg the question of now the Too Many Peoples' Republic can resolve what could pose a mortal, internal threat to the state.


Edstock said...

Just add climate change, and the next 20-30 years are going to be very interesting.

The Mound of Sound said...

Yes indeed, Ed.