A report from Asia Times Online suggests the Taliban may have made a real, tactical blunder by occupying Musa Qala last week.
The town in Helmand province had been under a ceasefire agreement that was supposed to see a withdrawal of British and Taliban forces. The Taliban, however, continued to use the town:
"Musa Qala is somewhat different, though, as it is the Taliban's most important foothold in the country, from where it draws support and vital supplies. Other important districts in Helmand province, such as Nawzad, Baghran and to some extent Sangeen, are dependent on Musa Qala as a logistical base.
"If the British do launch a vigorous campaign to retake Musa Qala, and then strengthen their presence and conduct regular patrols, either with British or Afghan National Army troops, the Taliban's activities will be badly disrupted. Indeed, it would be a tactical disaster as far as preparations for the spring offensive are concerned.
"At this stage the Taliban simply don't want to become involved in a serious confrontation with NATO. But even if they retreat from Musa Qala without a fight, the peace agreement will be in tatters and they will not be allowed the virtual free rein they had under the ceasefire. Further, should the Taliban resist, their peace agreements in other parts of the province will likely be scrapped.
"The Taliban would therefore be forced to engage in premature battles in the southwest, and would have to shift the focus of their spring offensive to the southeast and east. This would diminish the impact of the offensive, as the Taliban's support base is strongest in the southwest, from where they were relying on a domino effect to spread their offensive to other areas of the country.
"As it stands now, Musa Qala has the potential to turn southwestern Afghanistan, including Zabul, Urzgan, Kandahar and Helmand, into a battlefield much sooner than anticipated."
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