Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Is America's Housing Bubble Set to Burst?

As California goes, so goes America - or so some claim. If they're right the backbone of the American economy, its housing market, is becoming increasingly brittle.

The LA Times reports California's housing market has turned stagnant and cracks are starting to appear:

"There's a lot of speculation about where the housing market is headed. Some analysts contend the shakeout is already over. Others maintain it hasn't even begun. Dave Hennigan and the company he works for, Home Center Realty, don't have the luxury of waiting to see how the story will play out. They need to make a living now, and they're betting that things are going to get worse. Maybe much worse.

During the four-year boom that ended last summer, Home Center expanded from 15 agents to 80 in three offices. The roster of agents has since sunk to 52, only about half of whom are active.

"'The rest are looking for side jobs at McDonald's,' said Home Center President Jason Bosch. 'It happened overnight.'

Hennigan has found the key to survival is in tracking down those whose own financial survival is at great risk:

"In this queasy market, sales are slumping. Sellers remember the boom and want more money than they can get, while buyers feel they have unlimited time to make a decision. An agent's best prospect for a sale is someone who must act now — a homeowner told by a lender to pay up or get out.

"These owners are in crisis. They need to refinance if they can or sell and move into something affordable. If they had an easier option, they wouldn't be behind in their payments in the first place.

"Home Center Chief Executive Ron Barnard says that personally, he finds foreclosure sad, even tragic. 'But as a business owner, I think it's great.'

"The new issue of the company's 22-page listings magazine, distributed outside supermarkets and drugstores, will tout nothing but distressed and foreclosed properties: 95 of them, many nearly new, each priced at around $250,000.

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