The Other Shoe Drops

This is a story that's been simmering on the back burner for quite a while. When we think of foreigners meddling in the affairs of Afghanistan we naturally think of Pakistan to the east. We don't tend to hear too much about western Afghanistan where it borders - Iran.

Iran, by contrast, has American forces on its eastern border in Afghanistan and on its western border in Iraq. Given all the sabre rattling coming out of Washington lately that has to feel a bit uncomfortable for the boys in Tehran.

As the Globe and Mail reports, Iran's alliances in Afghanistan appear to be shifting:

"Nearly every Afghan politician criticizes Pakistan for stoking the Taliban insurgency, but they're divided about Iran. Some describe their neighbour as exerting only political and commercial influence, broadcasting anti-American radio and TV programs and using predatory business practices to gain control over parts of the Afghan economy.

"'They are meddling, for sure,' a senior Kabul politician said. 'But for now, we can't say they are interfering in the military aspect.' In Kandahar, another politician said he believes that Iran supports the Ishaqzai tribal faction within the Taliban. The Afghan politician said he recently met with an Iranian official and challenged him about the rumours, which produced only a shrug from the Iranian.

"'He said, 'What should we do? If we knew that the United States would behave like this, we would not have opposed the Taliban at first,' " the politician said.

"Support for the Taliban would be a major reversal for the Shia government in Iran, which nearly went to war with the Sunni Taliban regime over the killing of seven Iranian diplomats in 1998. Iran continued to give weapons and other assistance to the Taliban's enemies in northern Afghanistan until the regime was overthrown.

There is a lot of speculation lately that Iran may be about to shift its support away from Karzai to the Taliban, the typical "my enemy's enemy" business. This could open up another front for the insurgency and another headache for the United States and NATO.