The latest US intelligence summary on Iraq has been released and it's far from encouraging. It foresees the security situation worsening over the next 18-months.
"Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism.
"Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006."
The report also warns not to put too much confidence in Nouri al-Maliki's ability to turn things around.
On the question of what to do with American forces, the report recommends there be no withrdrawal, concluding that a military pullout will only accelerate the violence.
Probably an American withdrawal would lead to an acceleration in sectarian violence - for a while - but might it also compel the warring parties to seek some accommodation? Is the American occupation providing just enough security to keep the existing violence tolerable for all sides? Is the US playing the role of enabler, presiding over a civil war in a way that almost ensures that it continues far longer than it otherwise would?
Is this about living with the pain of the toothache to avoid the even greater moment of pain by pulling the tooth?
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