The International Food Research Institute says the next couple of years will see the world experience food shortages worse than anything in the past half century.
Joachim von Braun, head of the institute, told The Guardian that the world can expect food riots and malnutrition to surge over the next two years and said the problems won't get any better until there's a "fundamental shift" to boost production of staple foods.
"Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it produces for five years now. Stocks of grain - of rice, wheat and maize - are down at levels not seen since the early 80s," said von Braun, whose organisation is the world's largest alliance of agricultural researchers, economists, and policy experts.
So far, crises have been averted because states have eaten into national stocks, but this could be set to change because China, in particular, has run down its supplies.
One problem identified by von Braun is the diversion of agricultural resources into biofuel production. Another problem, especially for poorer nations, is cash-rich China which can afford to go onto the world markets and buy grain supplies at prices the weaker countries simply can't meet.
The social tensions caused by rising food prices are already evident, says von Braun. "The first sign was the tortilla riot in Mexico city, where 70,000 took to the streets. I think that was only the beginning - there will be more," said von Braun. "For a year or two countries can stabilise with stocks. But the risk comes in the next 12 to 24 months. The countries that cannot afford to buy will be the losers, while those with huge foreign exchange reserves will bid up the world market."
And, yes, droughts associated with global warming are also causing enormous disruptions in food production on every continent and in a number of hot spots such as Afghanistan.
Joachim von Braun, head of the institute, told The Guardian that the world can expect food riots and malnutrition to surge over the next two years and said the problems won't get any better until there's a "fundamental shift" to boost production of staple foods.
"Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it produces for five years now. Stocks of grain - of rice, wheat and maize - are down at levels not seen since the early 80s," said von Braun, whose organisation is the world's largest alliance of agricultural researchers, economists, and policy experts.
So far, crises have been averted because states have eaten into national stocks, but this could be set to change because China, in particular, has run down its supplies.
One problem identified by von Braun is the diversion of agricultural resources into biofuel production. Another problem, especially for poorer nations, is cash-rich China which can afford to go onto the world markets and buy grain supplies at prices the weaker countries simply can't meet.
The social tensions caused by rising food prices are already evident, says von Braun. "The first sign was the tortilla riot in Mexico city, where 70,000 took to the streets. I think that was only the beginning - there will be more," said von Braun. "For a year or two countries can stabilise with stocks. But the risk comes in the next 12 to 24 months. The countries that cannot afford to buy will be the losers, while those with huge foreign exchange reserves will bid up the world market."
And, yes, droughts associated with global warming are also causing enormous disruptions in food production on every continent and in a number of hot spots such as Afghanistan.
2 comments:
For God sake, will someone stop this biofuel bullshit. Corn is a poor source of energy. The net gain is marginal at best, and very destructive of the environment (e.g., vast algae blooms in the GOM). All it does is make politicians look like they're taking action.
Naive, feel-good environmentalism is worse than no environmentalism at all. You gotta be smart about these things, or risk doing far more damage than you prevent.
I'm with you on the biofuel nonsense. The amount of grain required to fill an SUV tank twice will feed a man for a year. It's causing price and supply shocks throughout the global food system, not to mention tropical deforestation for palm oil planations. A well-intentioned idea gone completely haywire.
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