Monday, September 10, 2012

If We Ditch Karzai, They'll Ditch al Qaeda?

The Talibs, at least part of them, seem to want a deal.   They'll stand down and sever ties with al Qaeda but only if we, namely the United States, ditches Afghanistan's constitution and Hamid Karzai.  This all comes via a report from the Royal United Services Institute.

The report concludes: "The Taliban would be open to negotiating a ceasefire as part of a general settlement, and also as a bridge between confidence-building measures and the core issue of the distribution of political power in Afghanistan.

"A ceasefire would require strong Islamic justification, obscuring any hint of surrender," it adds.

Even more surprising, in view of the official Taliban propaganda portraying it as leading a struggle against foreign invaders, the report says the insurgents are "prepared to accept a long-term US military presence in Afghanistan".

...The report even suggests that the Taliban would co-operate in tracking down al-Qaida members, noting that the leadership and base "deeply regret" their past association with the global jihadist group.

The report's authors admit they've been dealing with a minority of the Taliban, not the group's actual leadership.   It's tempting, however, and potentially the closest thing the Americans could claim to some sort of victory in Afghanistan.   Yet Karzai remains a problem.   He's said he'll step down in 2014 anyway.   His successor will need the support of the old Northern Alliance warlords representing the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazara, Turkmen and other ethnic opposition and they're decidedly anti-Taliban.

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