A "Very Likely" Compromise

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, is about to issue its latest report on global warming.

A key debate has been how certain the scientists are that global warming is caused by human activity. Years ago the IPCC said it was "more likely than not". Subsequently it was said to be "probable."

The latest report is said to state that manmade global warming is "very likely", meaning they're 90% sure that human activity is behind the existing climate change. Some scientists wanted to use "virtually certain", meaning 99% sure, but there was opposition from some nations including China which has powered its industrial revolution with fossil fuels.

The coming report is also said to acknowledge the direct link between existing global warming and killer heat waves and more intense hurricanes and storms that have been experienced in recent years.

Does this make any difference? Sure it does. There is a political impact to the report's conclusions but also an economic effect. Insurers, for example, will be following the report closely for its bearing on their coverage and premium forecasts.

It is also likely that the IPCC report will be used to notch up pressure on two emerging GHG emitters, China and India, to take steps to curb their approach to fossil fuels beyond what they're already doing via carbon transfer agreements. Both countries realize their economic futures are very vulnerable to a global backlash if they don't.