There Goes the Neighbourhood

China says it won't consider mandatory cuts in carbon emissions, instead demanding that the United States take the lead in cutting its own greenhouse gas production.

China noted its per capita GHG levels are still only one-sixth of the American figure. China argues that it has only been generating significant carbon emissions for a short period contrasted with the many decades that the West has been doing it.

The trouble is, China is right. That, however, doesn't change the fact that as an emerging economy with the world's largest population, China has now edged out the US as the largest carbon emitter.

So, what have we got? A standoff. The US says no mandatory cuts. China says "me too." Stephen Harper puts on his delightful French maid's costume and jumps in Bush's lap to go along for the ride.

That's not to say that both countries haven't taken some steps to deal with the problem, China in particular. China actually doesn't have much choice given the severe environmental devastation plaguing its cities and countryside alike. China, like the US, may be poisoning the world but it's poisoning China most of all.

It appears there's a decided lack of political will among the major emitters and that means little chance of any effective carbon control agreement coming out of Bali. How bad are things over there? Well, CNN pulled its news crews out yesterday having concluded there's nothing to report.

We're already at a point where there's no single answer to this problem. Anything workable we come up with will be a blend of remediation and adaptation. That, in turn, requires a mix of scientific, technological, political, economic and military inputs. As the problem worsens the blend shifts away from remediation and more toward adaptation. That, in turn, diminishes the effectiveness of peaceful solutions and increases the role of military and security options.

If you want to understand the link between global warming and global security, do some research on the hydrological issues affecting Israel's ability and willingness to give up the Golan Heights and the West Bank.

If the expert consensus is right and the nations of this planet have just a few years to put in place a truly effective carbon-emission reduction plan, I'm betting we're just going to have to live with whatever is behind Door 2. I just don't see this turning out well.