If there's been anything consistent in climate science it has been the errors in forecasts and projections. Climate science - the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), NASA, the Hadley Centre, National Academies of Science, Potsdam, the lot - keep understating what's coming, especially what's already "baked in" our shifting environment.
We were told that if we didn't sharply mend our ways a lot of stuff was going to happen by 2100 and a fair bit of that stuff did happen only 60 to 80 years sooner than predicted. I suppose you have some idea of what's coming next.
A new report published in Nature Geoscience says temperature increases could be double what has been predicted and, even if we do somehow, magically meet the 2 degree Celsius target for warming, sea levels could rise not a foot or two or even three but six metres. That's 19.685 feet.
The researchers say they increase the urgency with which countries need to address their emissions.
The scientists used a range of measurements to piece together the impacts of past climatic changes to examine how a warmer earth would appear once the climate has stabilised.
They found sustained warming of one to two degrees had been accompanied by substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and sea level rises of at least six metres – several metres higher than what current climate models predict could occur by 2100.Here's what 6 metres of sea level rise would mean to Florida. Adios Miami. Fairwell, Florida Keys. Good riddance, Merde a Lardo.
Remember, what's shown here is calm weather inundation. It doesn't take into account severe storm events, storm surge inundation, etc. Heading west, the entire US Gulf Coast is in trouble. New Orleans will be gone. Houston could go too.
Keep this in mind. The latest report cited here is not some outlier. It is not the first to predict six metres of sea level rise even if we keep warming below the 2C target. There have been others including this one from 2015. These reports, then, may represent a building consensus of what we must prepare to accept. This is not going to go down well with the world's petro-states, including our own.